Iraq Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

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  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Iraq Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Islamic State will remain well entrenched over the coming year, and Iraqi security forces (ISF) and its allies will focus on re-conquering the Anbar province and Mosul. Iraq will maintain formal unity within a fragile federalised state over the coming decade, with the Kurdish region retaining significant autonomy but not outright independence.

  • Iraq will remain in recession over 2016. Domestic expansion will be sluggish and uneven; consumer spending and capital formation will be hit hard by political instability, and declining oil prices will hinder the government's ability to prop up spending.

Key Risks

  • Sectarian tensions could increase even higher if Baghdad fails to reconstruct the Sunni territory it re-conquers from IS.

  • PM Haider al-Abadi could lose his party's support, resulting in his impeachment. This would further increase political instability, with political parties attempting to gain more power.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Iraq 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y -3.9 -0.7 -0.3 2.0
Nominal GDP, USDbn 204.0 165.5 145.7 170.3
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 1.6 2.3 7.0 5.5
Exchange rate IQD/USD, eop 1,195.03 1,182.00 1,280.51 1,296.54
Budget balance, % of GDP -5.7 -18.5 -19.3 -10.3
Current account balance, % of GDP 12.0 -6.8 -14.1 -7.6
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Oil Price Slump, Violence, To Stifle Growth
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
11
Dire Times To Continue In 2016
11
Structural Fiscal Position
13
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF REVENUES AND EXPENDITURE
13
External Trade And Investment Outlook
14
Further Pain Ahead Amid Low Oil Prices
14
Outlook On External Position
16
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
16
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF IMPORTS IN 2014
16
Monetary Policy
17
Further Devaluation Ahead
17
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF EXPORTS IN 2014
17
Monetary Policy Framework
18
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
19
The Iraqi Economy To 2025
19
Success Story In Jeopardy
19
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
19
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
21
SWOT Analysis
21
BMI Political Risk Index
21
Domestic Politics
22
Sectarian Tensions To Continue, Even Without IS
22
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
22
Long-Term Political Outlook
24
Risks Of State Collapse - Scenarios Assessed
24
TABLE: LONG-TERM SCENARIOS
24
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
27
SWOT Analysis
27
Operational Risk Index
27
Operational Risk
28
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
28
Trade Procedures And Governance
29
TABLE: MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA - TRADE PROCEDURES AND GOVERNANCE RISK
29
TABLE: IMPORT AND EXPORT DOCUMENTS
30
TABLE: TRADE PROCEDURES BREAKDOWN
30
Vulnerability To Crime
30
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
35
Global Macro Outlook
35
Downside Risks Gather Momentum
35
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
35
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
36
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
36
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
37
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
39

Assess your risk exposure in Iraq with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Iraq with confidence.

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  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
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  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report