Iraq Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

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  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Iraq Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Islamic State will remain well entrenched over the coming year, and Iraqi security forces (ISF) and its allies will focus on re-conquering Mosul and securing Anbar. Iraq will maintain formal unity within a fragile federalised state over the coming decade, with the Kurdish region retaining significant autonomy but not outright independence.

  • Iraq will remain in recession over 2016. Domestic expansion will be sluggish and uneven; consumer spending and capital formation will be hit hard by political instability, and declining oil prices will hinder the government's ability to prop up spending.

Key Risks

  • Sectarian tensions could increase even higher if Baghdad fails to reconstruct the Sunni territory it re-conquers from IS.

  • PM Haider al-Abadi could lose his party's support, resulting in his impeachment. This would further increase political instability, with political parties attempting to gain more power.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Iraq 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y -3.9 -0.7 -0.3 2.0
Nominal GDP, USDbn 207.2 170.5 157.1 185.5
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 1.6 2.3 7.0 5.5
Exchange rate IQD/USD, eop 1,166.00 1,182.00 1,182.00 1,182.00
Budget balance, % of GDP -5.7 -14.3 -12.9 -1.9
Current account balance, % of GDP 7.9 -4.7 -5.6 4.8
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Still A Recession In 2016
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
11
A Lot More Needed To Avoid Fiscal, BoP Crises
11
Structural Fiscal Position
13
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF REVENUES AND EXPENDITURE
13
Monetary Policy
14
CBI To Follow Fed Hiking Cycle, Further Devalue Dinar
14
Monetary Policy Framework
15
KRG Outlook
16
Kurdistan: Fiscal, Political Situations To Worsen
16
TABLE: RAPIDLY GROWING DEBT
17
TABLE: TIMELINE OF TURKEY-PKK RELATIONSHIP
18
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Iraqi Economy to 2025
21
Success Story In Jeopardy
21
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
21
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
23
SWOT Analysis
23
BMI Political Risk Index
23
Domestic Politics
24
Political Crisis To Benefit IS, Delay Reconstruction
24
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
24
TABLE: CABINET RESHUFFLE PROPOSALS
25
Long-Term Political Outlook
26
Risks Of State Collapse - Scenarios Assessed
26
TABLE: LONG-TERM SCENARIOS
26
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
29
SWOT Analysis
29
Operational Risk Index
29
Operational Risk
30
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
30
Economic Openness
31
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
31
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
32
Availability Of Labour
35
TABLE: MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA-AVAILABILITY OF LABOUR RISK
35
TABLE: TOP 10 SOURCE COUNTRIES FOR MIGRANT WORKERS
36
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
41
Global Macro Outlook
41
Tentative Stability, But New Risks Emerging
41
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
41
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
42
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
43
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
45

Assess your risk exposure in Iraq with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Iraq with confidence.

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  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
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  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
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