Iraq Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Iraq Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Islamic State (IS) will lose control of Mosul, its capital in Iraq, over the coming year, but will remain a threat to the country by going underground and carrying out terror attacks. Iraq will maintain formal unity within a fragile federalised state over the coming decade, with the Kurdish region retaining significant autonomy but not outright independence.

  • Economic growth will turn positive again in 2017 in Iraq, after three years of recession . No boom is on the horizon, however, given that major structural impediments remain.

Key Risks

  • Sectarian tensions will remain elevated even with the defeat of IS. Sunni grievances could turn violent again if Baghdad fails to reconstruct the Sunni territory it re-conquers from IS.

  • PM Haider al-Abadi could lose his party's support, resulting in his impeachment. This would further increase political instability, with political parties attempting to gain more power.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Iraq 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 225.4 176.8 165.6 194.1
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y -3.9 -2.7 -3.9 2.3
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 1.6 2.3 7.0 5.5
Exchange rate IQD/USD, eop 1,166.00 1,182.00 1,182.00 1,182.00
Budget balance, % of GDP -5.3 -13.8 -15.0 -6.7
Current account balance, % of GDP 7.3 -1.1 -4.6 -1.9
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
No Upside For The Coming Quarters
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
11
Monetising The Deficit In 2016
11
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
11
FINANCING THE DEFICIT ACCORDING TO THE IRAQI BUDGET, USDMN
12
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
13
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF REVENUES AND EXPENDITURE
14
External Trade And Investment Outlook
15
Current Account Deficits To End In 2017
15
Outlook On External Position
16
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
16
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
17
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF IMPORTS IN 2015
17
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF EXPORTS IN 2015
17
Monetary Policy
18
Peg Will Hold On Falling Imports, Debt Monetisation
18
TABLE: CHANGE TO FORECAST
18
Monetary Policy Framework
19
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
19
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Iraq Economy To 2025
21
Success Story In Jeopardy
21
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
21
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
23
SWOT Analysis
23
BMI Political Risk Index
23
Domestic Politics
24
Little Hope For Improvement Despite IS Setback
24
TABLE: POLITICAL TABLE
24
Long-Term Political Outlook
27
Risks Of State Collapse - Scenarios Assessed
27
TABLE: LONG-TERM SCENARIOS
28
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
31
SWOT Analysis
31
Operational Risk Index
31
Operational Risk
32
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
32
Market Size And Utilities
33
TABLE: MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA - MARKET SIZE AND UTILITIES RISK
33
Labour Costs
37
TABLE: REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE
38
Chapter 5:BMI Global Macro Outlook
41
Global Macro Outlook
41
Brexit Risk Casts A Long Shadow
41
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
41
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
42
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
43
MACROECONOMIC FORECAST
45
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
45

Assess your risk exposure in Iraq with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Iraq with confidence.

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  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
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