BMI View : Our negative view of Iraqi construction and infrastructure will remain for the foreseeable future. The security situation and constrained government spending will deter investment . On a positive note, the World Bank and IMF have agreed significant loan programmes to rebuild infrastructure in war-damaged regions. Meanwhile, the project pipeline remains swollen with large developments, but the investment and operating environment make it challenging to conduct business .
Iraq's finance ministry has proposed a budget of IQD113.5trn (USD99.6bn), with a deficit of IQD29.4trn (USD25.8bn). The budget is a reduction on 2015, while the deficit has nearly doubled.
The World Bank said in July 2015 it would provide Iraq with loans worth USD1.7bn, while the IMF agreed earlier in 2015 on an USD833mn loan programme.
Our pessimism towards construction industry growth in 2014 - we had estimated -20.4% for the year - was affirmed when official figures showed the industry had actually contracted by 23.3%.
In light of this and with the headwinds facing the industry still firmly in play, our short-term view remains unchanged, with growth in 2015 estimated at -8.5% and forecast to rebound on base effects to 3.4% in 2016.
Iraq has at least USD82bn of construction and infrastructure projects either in planning or in development in our Key Projects Database, allocated to more than 100 projects across all sectors - transport, social infrastructure, residential and non-residential building, and power.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
|Construction industry value, IQDbn||20,400.92||19,085.06||21,127.16||23,956.07||26,495.41||29,534.43||32,845.24|
|Construction Industry Value, Real Growth, % y-o-y||-23.34||-8.50||3.45||3.39||4.10||6.47||6.21|
The Iraq Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Iraq Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iraqi infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Iraq to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Iraqi infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Iraqi infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iraq.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).
Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.
The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).
BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.