Iraq Infrastructure Report

Published 28 July 2015

  • 82 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Iraq Infrastructure Report

BMI View : The negative view of Iraqi construction and infrastructure that has pervaded our outlook for several quarters has had little reason to change this quarter. While the security situation, particularly in the Islamic State (IS)-held north of the country, worsens, the government's ability to finance infrastructure will remain limited and private investment will be deterred. On a positive note, the World Bank has agreed a USD350mn loan to help rebuild infrastructure in war-damaged regions. In the investment bright spot of Kurdistan , the regional government has passed a law allowing the region to tap international capital markets for USD5bn towards infrastructure development.

Iraq's construction industry is being severely affected by the poor security situation, with the IS insurgency even affecting business sentiment in the Kurdish region, the once-considered relatively safe haven and primary investment destination. After failing to agree on a budget for 2014, the new parliament has approved one for 2015. However, it has been greatly limited by the falling oil price and the diversion of funds to security, meaning in the short term that infrastructure development will not likely receive the full state backing it requires. Meanwhile, the poor business and operational environment will continue to deter private investment from a country with a large reconstruction-related project pipeline. The potential in Iraq is great, as too is the risk, and we do not foresee stability until at least the medium term.

Key Developments

  • In the previous quarter we had expected growth in 2014 to contract by 6% in 2014, but after the release of official data, we have significantly downgraded our estimate to -16.2% for the full year. Furthermore, as opposed to seeing 2015 as a return to growth, as we had originally expected, we now see a decline of -7.6%. We are forecasting in 2016 a return to growth, with a very base-effected and weaker than originally anticipated 3.8%.

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT
6
Infrastructure SWOT
6
Industry Forecast
8
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
8
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Iraq 2013-2018)
8
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Iraq 2019-2024)
8
Table: Iraq's Long-Term Scenarios
13
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
17
Table: Major Projects - Transport
24
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
27
Table: Iraq Electricity Consumption 2013
28
Table: Major Projects - Energy and Utilities
33
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview
38
Table: Major Projects - Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure
43
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
46
Iraq - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
46
Security Risks In MENA Coming To The Fore
47
Table: MENA Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index
52
Market Overview
53
Competitive Landscape
53
Table: Key Company Financial Data
53
Global Industry Overview
56
Industry Trend Analysis
56
Table: Multilaterals And Development Bank Infrastructure Support Programmes
60
Methodology
62
Industry Forecast Methodology
62
Sector-Specific Methodology
63
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
67
Sector-Specific Methodology
68
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators
68
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
69

The Iraq Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Iraq Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iraqi infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Iraq to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Iraqi infrastructure market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iraqi infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iraq.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).

Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.

The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).

BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and  demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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