Iraq Infrastructure Report

Published 24 April 2015

  • 69 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Iraq Infrastructure Report

BMI View : Iraq's construction industry is being severely affected by the poor security situation, with the Islamic State (IS) insurgency even affecting business sentiment in the Kurdish region, the once-considered relative ly safe haven and primary investment destination. After failing to agree on a budget for 2014, the new parliament has approved one for 2015. However, it has been greatly limited by the falling oil price and the diversion of funds to security, meaning in the short term that infrastructure development will not likely receive the full state backing it requires. Meanwhile, the poor business and operational environment will continue to deter private investment from a country with a large reconstruction-related project pipeline. The potential in Iraq is great, as too is the risk, and we do not foresee stability until at least the medium term.

Key Developments

  • In the previous quarter we had expected growth in 2014 to contract by 6% in 2014, but after the release of data showing estimated growth in 9M14 of -11% (at constant prices), we have significantly downgraded our estimate to -20.4% for the full year. Furthermore, as opposed to seeing 2015 as a return to growth, as we had originally expected, we now see a decline of -8.5%. We are forecasting in 2016 a return to growth, with a very base-effected 11.5%.

  • Iraq's 2015 budget, of around USD105bn has been approved. The budget includes a deficit of over USD19.7bn and is based on expectations of lower global oil prices.

  • Hussein Al-Yassiri, deputy chairman of the Al-Diwaniyah governorate investment authority, tried to spike interest in March when he said multiple major project announcements were imminent. These include projects related to the long-delayed USD1.35bn Al-Diwaniyah International Commercial Airport, including a USD210mn cement plant and five other investment contracts worth about USD250mn. Kuwaiti firm Al Nasriyah in January signed an agreement to build and operate the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT
6
Infrastructure SWOT
6
Industry Forecast
8
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
8
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Iraq 2012-2017)
8
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Iraq 2018-2023)
9
Table: Iraq's Long-Term Scenarios
12
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
14
Table: Major Projects - Transport
20
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
23
Table: Iraq Electricity Consumption 2013
24
Table: Major Projects - Energy and Utilities
29
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview
34
Table: Major Projects - Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure
38
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
42
Iraq - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
42
Middle East And North Africa - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index
43
Table: MENA Infrastructure Risk / Reward Index
48
Market Overview
50
Competitive Landscape
50
Table: Key Company Financial Data
50
Global Industry Overview
52
Table: Construction Industry Value, Real Terms, % Change
53
Table: BMI's Top 5 Markets
57
Methodology
59
Industry Forecast Methodology
59
Sector-Specific Methodology
60
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
64
Sector-Specific Methodology
65
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators
65
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
66

The Iraq Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Iraq Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iraqi infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Iraq to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Iraqi infrastructure market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iraqi infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iraq.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).

Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.

The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).

BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and  demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc