BMI View: Major oilfield expansion projects in Iraq will be an important source of low-cost oil production to meet future demand. We expect continued growth in output from 2017. Natural gas imports from Iran starting in 2016 will play a significant role in meeting demand from the power sector , while exports are set from the KRG to Turkey in 2019.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Oil ministry, MNR, JODI, EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||3,124.1||3,905.0||4,216.4||4,423.9||4,647.8||4,705.3||4,850.8|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||522.7||444.7||439.2||441.4||442.2||444.4||542.2|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||619.8||622.3||631.0||646.2||659.1||672.3||685.7|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||0.9||1.0||1.5||2.0||2.4||5.0||7.5|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||0.9||1.0||2.4||3.5||4.5||5.2||5.3|
We highlight the following trends and developments in Iraq's oil and gas sector:
H116 oil production in Iraq has averaged 4.267mn b/d, with 3.256mn b/d exported from Basra and 0.467mn b/d from the KRG.
The government has reportedly come to an agreement with BP, Shell and Lukoil to restart investment to increase output from their major fields. This should support around 250,000b/d of new production in 2017.
Halfaya phase III is reportedly close to sanction, increasing output from 200,000b/d to 400,000b/d by 2018.
Exxon & PetroChina are reportedly in talks with the government to boost production from the Nahr Umr and Artawi oil fields.
An attack on the Bai Hassan oil field and a second site in Northern Iraq has taken out approximately 75,000b/d from two well sites.
Shell supplied associated gas from its Majnoon field to the power sector for the first time in February, at a rate of around 715mn cubic metres per year.
Genel is expecting the field development plan for the Miran/Bina Bawi development to be approved in Q216.
Gas delivery from Iran to three gas power plants in Sadr, Baghdad and Al-Mansouriyah is due to begin in H216. Initially at 5-7Mcm/d, deliveries could rise to 25-35Mcm/d.
We have revised up our Iraq gas consumption forecast for 2016 (1.5bcm) and 2017 (2.0bcm) as a result, and see upside risk if a second proposed gas deal with Iran to Basra is realised.
The Iraq Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Iraq including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Iraq Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iraqi oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Iraq to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iraqi oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Iraqi oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iraq.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
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Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
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Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
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BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
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Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
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*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.