Iraq Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Iraq Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Powerful oil production growth realised in 2015 will come to an abrupt slowdown over the coming years as lower oil prices subdue the governments' ability to reimburse development costs. Natural gas imports from Iran from 2016 will play a significant role in meeting pent up demand from the power sector.

Headline Forecasts (Iraq 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
f = BMI forecast. Source: Oil ministry, JODI, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 2,990.9 3,124.1 3,781.9 3,923.7 4,005.2 3,989.4 4,045.4
Dry natural gas production, bcm 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.8 4.8 7.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.6 2.9 3.0
Refined products production, 000b/d 647.9 522.7 454.0 463.1 472.3 481.8 491.4
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 665.8 619.8 605.7 612.4 621.5 634.0 653.0
Brent, USD/bbl 108.70 99.50 55.00 54.00 53.00 60.00 64.00

We highlight the following trends and developments in Iraq's oil and gas sector:

  • We have revised up our Iraq oil production forecast for 2015 to 3.8mn b/d, but have lowered output growth in subsequent years.

  • This is due to the government's limited ability to pay for development costs with increased military and humanitarian expenditure in a lower oil price environment.

  • The government has requested companies to reduce costs in field development plans, with billions of dollars of investment yet to be approved for 2016.

  • We have revised down our 2015 and 2016 natural gas production forecast on inconsistent output from new developments in the region of Kurdistan.

  • We forecast Iraq to be a net importer of natural gas in 2016, with exports to Diyala and Baghdad due to begin from Iran.

  • We see upside risk to Iraqi gas consumption from 2017 if the latest 20-35Mcm/d gas import deal from Iran to Basra is realised.

  • Fuel oil consumption has increased as a result of insufficient gas for power plants, though overall refined fuels consumption has fallen in 2015. We forecast demand to stay weak for at least two years.

  • Production of refined fuels will remain weak due to damage at the Beiji refinery reducing domestic output by as much as 200,000b/d.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Iraq 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Latest Updates
10
Structural Trends
10
Table: Kurdistan Blocks And Operator
13
Upstream Projects
15
Table: Iraq - Major Upstream Projects
15
Upstream Production - Oil
22
Latest Updates
22
Structural Trends
22
Table: Basra Split Boosts Output
24
Table: Oil Production (Iraq 2013-2018)
25
Table: Oil Production (Iraq 2019-2024)
26
Upstream Production - Gas
26
Latest Updates
26
Structural Trends
26
Table: Gas Production (Iraq 2013-2018)
28
Table: Gas Production (Iraq 2019-2024)
28
Refining
29
Latest Updates
29
Structural Trends
29
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iraq 2013-2018)
31
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iraq 2019-2024)
32
Refined Fuels Consumption
33
Latest Updates
33
Structural Trends
33
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Iraq 2013-2018)
36
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Iraq 2019-2024)
36
Gas Consumption
37
Latest Updates
37
Structural Trends
37
Table: Gas Consumption (Iraq 2013-2018)
39
Table: Gas Consumption (Iraq 2019-2024)
39
Trade - Oil
40
Latest Updates
40
Crude Export Outlook
40
Structural Trends
40
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iraq 2013-2018)
42
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iraq 2019-2024)
42
Refined Fuels Trade Outlook
42
Structural Trends
42
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iraq 2013-2018)
44
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iraq 2019-2024)
45
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
46
Latest Updates
46
Structural Trends
46
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iraq 2013-2018)
48
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iraq 2019-2024)
48
Industry Risk Reward Index
49
Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
49
Table: BMI's Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index (RRI)
49
Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment
50
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
50
Limited Opportunities Downstream
52
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
52
Iraq - Risk/Reward Index
55
Market Overview
56
Iraq Energy Market Overview
56
Regulatory Structure
56
Fiscal Regime
56
Table: Federal Government Technical Service Agreements
56
Table: KRG Production Sharing Agreements
57
Licensing Regime
57
Licensing Rounds
57
Table: Fields Licensed Under First Bidding Round (June 2009)
57
Table: Fields Licensed Under Second Bidding Round (December 2009)
58
Table: Fields Licensed Under Third Bidding Round (October 2010)
58
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
60
Oil Refineries
60
Table: Iraqi Refineries
60
Table: Planned Refineries In Iraq
61
Oil Terminals/Ports
61
Oil Pipelines
62
Table: Major Iraqi Pipelines
62
Gas Pipelines
62
Competitive Landscape
64
Competitive Landscape Summary
64
Company Profiles
67
Other Summaries
67
Regional Overview
87
Middle East Oil & Gas Regional Overview
87
Oil Production: Expansion Projects March On
87
Oil Consumption: Subsidies Hide Weaker Price Impact, But Push Demand Growth
89
Refining Capacity: Mega Refineries Outcompete In Oversupplied Market
91
Gas Production: In Needed Of More Gas
92
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand
94
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Production, Refining Capacity & Trade
95
Glossary
97
Table: Glossary Of Terms
97
Methodology
99
Industry Forecast Methodology
99
Source
101
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
101
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
103
Table: Weighting
104

The Iraq Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Iraq including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Iraq Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iraqi oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Iraq to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iraqi oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iraqi oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iraq.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.