BMI View: Powerful oil production growth realised in 2015 will come to an abrupt slowdown over the coming years as lower oil prices subdue the governments' ability to reimburse development costs. Natural gas imports from Iran from 2016 will play a significant role in meeting pent up demand from the power sector , while exports are set from the KRG to Turkey in 2019.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Oil ministry, JODI, EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||3,124.1||3,905.0||4,080.9||4,280.2||4,445.0||4,507.1||4,543.0|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||0.9||1.3||1.1||1.3||1.6||4.2||6.6|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||0.9||1.3||1.8||2.6||2.9||3.0||3.1|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||522.7||444.4||451.0||457.8||464.7||471.6||542.4|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||619.8||617.9||624.7||634.1||646.8||666.2||686.2|
We highlight the following trends and developments in Iraq's oil and gas sector:
Oil production, including output from the region of Kurdistan, reached 3.905mn b/d in 2015.
Oil exports averaged 3.311mnb/d in 2015.
Major full field development programmes at Majnoon and the West Qurna fields remain on hold. The Halfaya expansion remains dependent on CNPC accepting deferred payment.
This is due to the government's limited ability to pay for development costs with increased military and humanitarian expenditure in a lower oil price environment.
The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has switched oil remuneration from monthly payments to PSCs, creating a more consistent income stream for international oil companies.
Genel Energy and the KRG are finalising a gas production sharing contract (PSC) for the Miran and Bina Bawi fields. A final investment decision is expected in H216 with first exports to Turkey by 2019.
We forecast Iraq to be a net importer of natural gas from 2016-2018, with exports to Diyala and Baghdad due to begin from Iran.
We see upside risk to Iraqi gas consumption from 2017 if the latest 20-35mn cubic metres per day gas import deal from Iran to Basra is realised.
The Beiji refinery has been removed from our forecast due to damage and looting making it inoperable. We have revised down the expected recovery in refined fuels production as a result.
Fuels consumption in 2015 remained in line with 2014, we expect a gradual increase from 2016.
The Iraq Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Iraq including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Iraq Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iraqi oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Iraq to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iraqi oil and gas market.
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- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
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Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
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BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
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Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
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*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.