Iraq Oil & Gas Report

Published 20 May 2015

  • 136 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Iraq Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Pragmatic relations between Erbil and Baghdad have enabled oil exports from the North of Iraq to ramp-up over 2015. We have slightly increased our oil production forecast for 2015 to 3.59mn b/d, though remain cautious about a lasting revenue sharing agreement, the continued threat of Islamic State and major investments in Iraq in a weak oil price environment.

Headline Forecasts (Iraq 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Ministry of Oil, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 2,990.9 3,131.9 3,590.4 3,732.0 3,835.2 3,912.1 3,967.2
Dry natural gas production, bcm 1.2 1.6 2.0 1.9 2.4 5.9 8.9
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 1.2 1.6 2.7 3.3 3.8 3.9 4.2
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 522.9 490.0 436.6 445.3 454.2 522.3 642.5
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 691.8 629.3 648.2 670.2 693.0 716.6 745.2

We highlight the following trends and developments in Iraq's oil and gas sector:

  • According to the Iraqi Ministry of Oil, exports of the Kirkuk crude via Kurdistan reached 450,000b/d in April, while Basra exports topped 2.6mn b/d. Combined this is an export record.

  • Oil pipelines reaching the export point of Fishkhabour on the Kurdistan-Turkey border, could reach 700,000b/d of capacity in 2015. Iraq is targeting 550,000b/d of exports from Fishkhabour to Ceyhan by May 2015.

  • Relations between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government will remain cordial in the short term, as both parties focus on defeating IS. Major disputes still remain over oil shipments and revenue payments.

  • Due to these factors we forecast average oil production to increase 14.7% y-o-y in 2015 to 3.59mn b/d.

  • Longer-term we see far fewer opportunities for significant oil production growth, though forecast Iraq to produce over 4mn b/d by 2020.

    ...
BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Iraq 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Iraq 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Iraq 2019-2024)
11
Table: Kurdistan Blocks And Operator
13
Upstream Projects
16
Table: Iraq Major Upstream Projects
16
Upstream Production - Oil
20
Table: Oil Production (Iraq 2013-2018)
20
Table: Oil Production (Iraq 2019-2024)
20
Upstream Production - Gas
26
Table: Gas Production (Iraq 2013-2018)
26
Table: Gas Production (Iraq 2019-2024)
26
Refining
29
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iraq 2013-2018)
29
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iraq 2019-2024)
29
Refined Fuels Consumption
33
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Iraq 2013-2018)
33
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Iraq 2019-2024)
33
Gas Consumption
35
Table: Gas Consumption (Iraq 2013-2018)
35
Table: Gas Consumption (Iraq 2019-2024)
35
Trade - Oil
38
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iraq 2013-2018)
38
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iraq 2019-2024)
38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iraq 2013-2018)
40
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iraq 2019-2024)
40
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Iraq 2013-2018)
43
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Iraq 2019-2024)
43
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
44
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iraq 2013-2018)
44
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iraq 2019-2024)
44
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
47
Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
47
Table: BMI's Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index (RRI)
47
Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment
48
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
48
Limited Opportunities Downstream
51
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
51
Iraq - Risk/Reward Index
54
Market Overview
55
Iraq Energy Market Overview
55
Overview/State Role
55
Politics And Kurdistan Regional Government Exports
55
Licensing Rounds
59
Table: Fields Licensed Under First Bidding Round (June 2009)
59
Table: Fields Licensed Under Second Bidding Round (December 2009)
61
Table: Fields Licensed Under Third Bidding Round (October 2010)
63
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
64
Oil Refineries
64
Table: Iraqi Refineries
65
Table: Planned Refineries In Iraq
67
Oil Terminals/Ports
67
Oil Pipelines
68
Gas Pipelines
70
Competitive Landscape
72
Competitive Landscape Summary
72
Company Profile
75
Other Summaries
75
Regional Overview
95
Middle East Oil&Gas Regional Overview
95
Oil Production - Low Oil Prices Not Preventing Growth
95
Oil Consumption - Demand Continues Unabated
97
Refining Capacity - Outcompeting With Modernity And Scale
98
Gas Production - Pressure To Produce
99
Gas Consumption - Gas Switch Boosting Demand
101
Global Industry Overview
103
Oil Price Outlook
103
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
103
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
104
Appendix
111
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
111
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
111
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
112
Middle East - Regional Appendix
113
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
113
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
114
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
114
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
115
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
115
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
116
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
117
Table: Gas Consumption, 2016-2024 (bcm)
117
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
118
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
118
Table: Net LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
119
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
119
Iraq - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
120
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Iraq 2013-2018)
120
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Iraq 2019-2024)
120
Iraq - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
121
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Iraq 2013-2018)
121
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Iraq 2019-2024)
122
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Iraq 2013-2018)
123
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Iraq 2019-2024)
124
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Iraq 2013-2018)
126
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Iraq 2019-2024)
126
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Iraq 2013-2018)
127
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Iraq 2019-2024)
128
Glossary
129
Table: Glossary Of Terms
129
Methodology
131
Industry Forecast Methodology
131
Source
133
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
133
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
135
Table: Weighting
136

The Iraq Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Iraq including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Iraq Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iraqi oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Iraq to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iraqi oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iraqi oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iraq.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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