Iraq Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Iraq Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Powerful oil production growth realised in 2015 will come to an abrupt slowdown over the coming years as lower oil prices subdue the governments' ability to reimburse development costs. Natural gas imports from Iran from 2016 will play a significant role in meeting pent up demand from the power sector , while exports are set from the KRG to Turkey in 2019.

Headline Forecasts (Iraq 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Oil ministry, JODI, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 3,124.1 3,905.0 4,080.9 4,280.2 4,445.0 4,507.1 4,543.0
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.6 4.2 6.6
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.1
Refined products production, 000b/d 522.7 444.4 451.0 457.8 464.7 471.6 542.4
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 619.8 617.9 624.7 634.1 646.8 666.2 686.2
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 40.00 53.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

We highlight the following trends and developments in Iraq's oil and gas sector:

  • Oil production, including output from the region of Kurdistan, reached 3.905mn b/d in 2015.

  • Oil exports averaged 3.311mnb/d in 2015.

  • Major full field development programmes at Majnoon and the West Qurna fields remain on hold. The Halfaya expansion remains dependent on CNPC accepting deferred payment.

  • This is due to the government's limited ability to pay for development costs with increased military and humanitarian expenditure in a lower oil price environment.

  • The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has switched oil remuneration from monthly payments to PSCs, creating a more consistent income stream for international oil companies.

  • Genel Energy and the KRG are finalising a gas production sharing contract (PSC) for the Miran and Bina Bawi fields. A final investment decision is expected in H216 with first exports to Turkey by 2019.

  • We forecast Iraq to be a net importer of natural gas from 2016-2018, with exports to Diyala and Baghdad due to begin from Iran.

  • We see upside risk to Iraqi gas consumption from 2017 if the latest 20-35mn cubic metres per day gas import deal from Iran to Basra is realised.

  • The Beiji refinery has been removed from our forecast due to damage and looting making it inoperable. We have revised down the expected recovery in refined fuels production as a result.

  • Fuels consumption in 2015 remained in line with 2014, we expect a gradual increase from 2016.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Iraq 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Table: Kurdistan Blocks And Operator
14
Upstream Projects
16
Table: Iraq - Major Upstream Projects
16
Upstream Production - Oil
21
Latest Updates
21
Structural Trends
21
Table: Basra Split Boosts Output
23
Table: Oil Production (Iraq 2014-2019)
24
Table: Oil Production (Iraq 2020-2025)
24
Upstream Production - Gas
25
Latest Updates
25
Structural Trends
25
Table: Gas Production (Iraq 2014-2019)
27
Table: Gas Production (Iraq 2020-2025)
27
Refining
28
Latest Updates
28
Structural Trends
28
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iraq 2014-2019)
30
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iraq 2020-2025)
31
Refined Fuels Consumption
32
Latest Updates
32
Structural Trends
32
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Iraq 2014-2019)
35
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Iraq 2020-2025)
35
Gas Consumption
36
Latest Updates
36
Structural Trends
36
Table: Gas Consumption (Iraq 2014-2019)
38
Table: Gas Consumption (Iraq 2020-2025)
38
Trade - Oil
39
Latest Updates
39
Crude Trade Outlook
39
Structural Trends
39
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iraq 2014-2019)
41
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iraq 2020-2025)
41
Refined Fuels Trade Outlook
41
Structural Trends
41
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iraq 2014-2019)
43
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iraq 2020-2025)
44
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
45
Latest Updates
45
Structural Trends
45
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iraq 2014-2019)
47
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iraq 2020-2025)
47
Industry Risk Reward Index
48
Middle East - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
48
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
48
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment
49
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
49
Downstream: Limited Opportunities
51
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
51
Iraq - Risk/Reward Index
54
Market Overview
55
Iraq Energy Market Overview
55
Regulatory Structure
55
Fiscal Regime
55
Table: Federal Government Technical Service Agreements
55
Table: KRG Production Sharing Agreements
56
Licensing Regime
56
Licensing Rounds
56
Table: Fields Licensed Under First Bidding Round (June 2009)
56
Table: Fields Licensed Under Second Bidding Round (December 2009)
57
Table: Fields Licensed Under Third Bidding Round (October 2010)
57
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
59
Oil Refineries
59
Table: Iraqi Refineries
59
Table: Planned Refineries In Iraq
60
Oil Terminals/Ports
60
Oil Pipelines
61
Table: Major Iraqi Pipelines
61
Gas Pipelines
61
Competitive Landscape
63
Competitive Landscape Summary
63
Company Profiles
66
Other Summaries
66
Regional Overview
86
Middle East Oil And Gas Regional Overview
86
Oil Production: Weak Prices Have Limited Impact On Growth
86
Oil Consumption: Gradual Subsidy Reform To Temper Demand Growth
88
Refining Capacity: 2mn b/d Of New Capacity By 2020
90
Gas Production: Low Oil Prices Hinder Gas Progress
91
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand
93
Table: Middle East - Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade (2013-2024)
94
Glossary
96
Table: Glossary Of Terms
96
Methodology
98
Industry Forecast Methodology
98
Source
100
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
100
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
102
Table: Weighting
103

The Iraq Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Iraq including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Iraq Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iraqi oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Iraq to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iraqi oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iraqi oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iraq.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.