Iraq Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Iraq Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Major oilfield expansion projects in Iraq will be an important source of low-cost oil production to meet future demand. We expect continued growth in output from 2017. Natural gas imports from Iran starting in 2016 will play a significant role in meeting demand from the power sector , while exports are set from the KRG to Turkey in 2019.

Headline Forecasts (Iraq 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Oil ministry, MNR, JODI, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 3,124.1 3,905.0 4,216.4 4,423.9 4,647.8 4,705.3 4,850.8
Refined products production, 000b/d 522.7 444.7 439.2 441.4 442.2 444.4 542.2
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 619.8 622.3 631.0 646.2 659.1 672.3 685.7
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.9 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.4 5.0 7.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.9 1.0 2.4 3.5 4.5 5.2 5.3
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 46.50 57.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

We highlight the following trends and developments in Iraq's oil and gas sector:

  • H116 oil production in Iraq has averaged 4.267mn b/d, with 3.256mn b/d exported from Basra and 0.467mn b/d from the KRG.

  • The government has reportedly come to an agreement with BP, Shell and Lukoil to restart investment to increase output from their major fields. This should support around 250,000b/d of new production in 2017.

  • Halfaya phase III is reportedly close to sanction, increasing output from 200,000b/d to 400,000b/d by 2018.

  • Exxon & PetroChina are reportedly in talks with the government to boost production from the Nahr Umr and Artawi oil fields.

  • An attack on the Bai Hassan oil field and a second site in Northern Iraq has taken out approximately 75,000b/d from two well sites.

  • Shell supplied associated gas from its Majnoon field to the power sector for the first time in February, at a rate of around 715mn cubic metres per year.

  • Genel is expecting the field development plan for the Miran/Bina Bawi development to be approved in Q216.

  • Gas delivery from Iran to three gas power plants in Sadr, Baghdad and Al-Mansouriyah is due to begin in H216. Initially at 5-7Mcm/d, deliveries could rise to 25-35Mcm/d.

  • We have revised up our Iraq gas consumption forecast for 2016 (1.5bcm) and 2017 (2.0bcm) as a result, and see upside risk if a second proposed gas deal with Iran to Basra is realised.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Iraq 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Latest Updates
10
Structural Trends
10
Table: Kurdistan Blocks And Operator
12
Upstream Projects
14
Table: Iraq - Major Upstream Projects
14
Upstream Production - Oil
19
Latest Updates
19
Structural Trends
19
Table: Oil Production (Iraq 2014-2019)
21
Table: Oil Production (Iraq 2020-2025)
22
Upstream Production - Gas
23
Latest Updates
23
Structural Trends
23
Table: Gas Production (Iraq 2014-2019)
25
Table: Gas Production (Iraq 2020-2025)
25
Refining
26
Latest Updates
26
Structural Trends
26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iraq 2014-2019)
28
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iraq 2020-2025)
28
Refined Fuels Consumption
29
Latest Updates
29
Structural Trends
29
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Iraq 2014-2019)
32
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Iraq 2020-2025)
32
Gas Consumption
33
Latest Updates
33
Structural Trends
33
Table: Gas Consumption (Iraq 2014-2019)
35
Table: Gas Consumption (Iraq 2020-2025)
35
Trade - Oil
36
Latest Updates
36
Crude Oil Trade Outlook
36
Structural Trends
36
Table: Basra Splits
38
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iraq 2014-2020)
38
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iraq 2020-2025)
38
Refined Fuels Trade Outlook
39
Structural Trends
39
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iraq 2014-2019)
40
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iraq 2020-2025)
41
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
42
Latest Updates
42
Structural Trends
42
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iraq 2014-2019)
44
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iraq 2020-2025)
44
Industry Risk Reward Index
45
Middle East - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
45
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
45
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment
46
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
46
Downstream: Limited Opportunities
48
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
48
Iraq - Risk/Reward Index
51
Market Overview
52
Iraq Energy Market Overview
52
Regulatory Structure
52
Fiscal Regime
52
Table: Federal Government Technical Service Agreements
52
Table: KRG Production Sharing Agreements
53
Licensing Regime
53
Licensing Rounds
53
Table: Fields Licensed Under First Bidding Round (June 2009)
53
Table: Fields Licensed Under Second Bidding Round (December 2009)
54
Table: Fields Licensed Under Third Bidding Round (October 2010)
54
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
56
Oil Refineries
56
Table: Iraqi Refineries
56
Table: Planned Refineries In Iraq
57
Oil Terminals/Ports
57
Oil Pipelines
58
Table: Major Iraqi Pipelines
58
Gas Pipelines
58
Competitive Landscape
60
Competitive Landscape Summary
60
Regional Overview
62
Middle East Oil & Gas Regional Overview
62
Oil Production: Two Tiers Emerging
62
Oil Consumption: Subsidy Reform Tempering Demand Growth
64
Table: Gasoline-95 Pump Price June 2015 & March 2016 (Usd/Litre)
64
Refining Capacity: Mega Refineries Outcompete In Oversupplied Market
66
Gas Production: In Need Of More Gas
67
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand
69
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Production, Refining Capacity & Trade
70
Glossary
71
Table: Glossary Of Terms
71
Methodology
73
Industry Forecast Methodology
73
Source
75
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
75
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
77
Table: Weighting
78

The Iraq Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Iraq including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Iraq Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iraqi oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Iraq to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iraqi oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iraqi oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iraq.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.