BMI View: Steady payments from the government have helped maintain oil production growth over 2016 though at a slower pace to 2015. Natural gas imports from Iran in 2016 will play a significant role in meeting pent up demand from the power sector , while exports are set from the KRG to Turkey in 2019.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Oil ministry, JODI, EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||3,124.1||3,905.0||4,216.4||4,271.1||4,435.5||4,497.4||4,533.3|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||522.7||444.7||446.9||440.2||431.4||496.1||605.2|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||619.8||622.3||629.1||638.6||651.4||670.9||691.0|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||0.9||0.7||1.2||1.7||2.2||4.8||7.2|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||0.9||0.7||1.6||2.3||3.0||3.4||3.5|
We highlight the following trends and developments in Iraq's oil and gas sector:
January-April oil production in Iraq has averaged 4.3mn b/d, with 3.3mn b/d exported from Basra and 0.45mn b/d from the KRG.
Steady payments from both the central government and KRG have supported investment in production maintenance, though pending approvals for 2016 IOC investment plans will limit growth.
Shell supplied associated gas from its Majnoon field to the power sector for the first time in February, at a rate of around 715mn cubic metres per year.
Genel is expecting the field development plan for the Miran/Bina Bawi development to be approved in Q216.
Work has reportedly begun on construction of the Chinese-backed 150,000b/d Missan refinery, which is expected to start up in 2019.
The newly established Dhi Qar oil company is looking to revive the Nassiriyah oilfield and refinery project.
We forecast Iraq to be a net importer of natural gas from 2016-2018, with exports to Diyala and Baghdad due to begin from Iran, though warn levels could be limited due to a recent attack on a gas plant.
We see upside risk to Iraqi gas consumption from 2017 if the latest 20-35mn cubic metres per day gas import deal from Iran to Basra is realised.
The Iraq Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Iraq including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Iraq Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iraqi oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Iraq to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iraqi oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Iraqi oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iraq.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
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Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
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BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
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A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
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Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
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