BMI View: Major oilfield expansion projects in Iraq will be an important source of low-cost oil production to meet future demand and growth will continue in 2017. Natural gas imports from Iran starting in 2016 will play a significant role in meeting demand from the power sector , while exports are set from the KRG to Turkey in 2019.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: SOMO, MNR, JODI, EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||3,124.1||3,905.0||4,302.1||4,485.4||4,711.3||4,775.4||4,923.0|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||522.7||444.7||439.1||441.3||442.2||444.4||542.2|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||0.9||1.0||1.5||2.0||2.3||4.9||7.4|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||0.9||1.0||2.4||3.5||4.5||5.2||5.3|
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
Over 9M16 oil production in Iraq has averaged 4.323mn b/d, with 3.245mn b/d exported from Basra and 0.469mn b/d from the KRG.
In November 2016, Iraq released production figures for its major oil fields in the South:
Rumaila - 1.4mn b/d
West Qurna 1 & 2 - 870,000b/d
Zubair - 390,000b/d
Majnoon - 214,000b/d
Halfaya - 2040,00b/d
DNO is expected to add further wells at the Tawke field, increasing production from 109,000b/d in Q316 to 135,000b/d in 2017.
The Ministry of Oil is due to offer up 12 small and medium sized fields in central and southern Iraq to international investors.
Genel is expecting approval of the field development plan for the Miran/Bina Bawi fields, and the pre-front end engineering for the midstream facilities to be completed by end 2016.
Progress is being made on completing the joint development of Repsol's Topkhana and Western Zagros' Kurdamir developments.
The Karbala refinery could be delayed beyond its 2020 start up due to delayed payments to constructor Hyundai Engineering.
Iraq is requesting to be exempt from OPEC intervention in oil markets at the 171st meeting on November 30.
Gas deliveries to three gas power plants in Sadr, Baghdad and Al-Mansouriyah has seen Iraq being to import gas. Initially at 5-7Mcm/d, deliveries could rise to 25-35Mcm/d.
We have revised up our Iraq gas consumption forecast for 2016 (1.5bcm) and 2017 (2.0bcm) as a result, and see upside risk if a second proposed gas deal with Iran to Basra is realised.
The Iraq Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Iraq including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Iraq Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iraqi oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Iraq to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iraqi oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Iraqi oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iraq.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.