Iraq Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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Iraq Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
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BMI View: Heightened political instability in Iraq will pose downside risks to healthcare reconstruction programs over the short term. In the long term, however, despite the challenging economic and political environment, Iraq ' s health sector outlook will remain positive. Progression towards improving Iraq ' s healthcare sector will largely depend on the country's economic growth and the strength of the oil sector. T he government will remain committed to rebuilding Iraq's health sector over the coming decade, supported by expanding international cooperation.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: IQD2.02trn (USD1.68bn) in 2015 to IQD2.12trn (USD1.64bn) in 2016; +5.1% in local currency and -2.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter .

  • Healthcare: IQD12.69trn (USD10.55bn) in 2015 to IQD13.40trn (USD10.32bn) in 2016; +5.6% in local currency and -2.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, UN Comtrade, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 1.620 1.680 1.640 1.710 1.770 1.850 1.920
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 0.80 1.02 1.13 1.01 0.89 0.85 0.81
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 16.0 15.9 15.9 15.8 15.8 15.8 15.9
Health spending, USDbn 10.140 10.550 10.320 10.790 11.230 11.680 12.080

Risk/Reward Index

In Q316 we have revised upwards Iraq's Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score to 37.6 from 36.4 in the previous quarter (out of a maximum 100 points). The score revision was mainly driven by higher industry rewards indices. Iraq has shifted up two positions to 19th out of 31 markets in the Middle East and Africa Region in terms of attractiveness to pharmaceutical investors. While most score components are suffering from the effects of armed conflict and low oil prices, the pharmaceutical and healthcare sector will sustain its long-term potential for development.

Latest Updates

  • In April 2016, the Government of Japan approved an allocation of USD3mn to two WHO projects on vital life-saving public health and communicable diseases initiatives to be implemented across 11 governorates in Iraq.

  • In March 2016, an international review of the national tuberculosis control programme of Iraq was commissioned by the WHO to take an in-depth assessment at the performance of the programme within the context of current large-scale internal displacement and critical socioeconomic conditions in the country.

  • In response to the country's ailing health sector, in February 2016, Iraq's Ministry of Health and the WHO finalised a joint cooperation plan for 2016 and 2017, which will complement the ongoing medium and long-term development strategies already in place in the Middle Eastern country.

  • On February 28 2016, the first round of the 2016 nationwide polio vaccination campaign started in Iraq, which is forecast to immunise nearly 6mn children across the entire country.

BMI Economic View

As a result of low oil prices and war cost headwinds, the Iraqi economy contracted by 3.9% y-o-y in 2014, 0.7% in 2015, and we forecast only limited growth of 0.3% in 2016.

BMI Political View

Political tensions in Baghdad have increased to a new high since the beginning of April, as political parties clash over a government reshuffle called for by many parliamentarians and the populace. While the consequences could be even more dire than we currently expect, the protracted crisis will delay military progress against Islamic State, reconstruction of war-torn areas, and the reintegration of internally displaced Iraqis.

BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (2014-2020)
Industry Forecast
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Iraq 2012-2020)
Healthcare Market Forecast
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Iraq 2012-2020)
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Iraq 2012-2020)
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Iraq 2012-2020)
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Iraq 2014-2020)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Iraq 2014-2020)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Middle East and Africa Risk/Reward Index - Q3 2016
Iraq Risk/Reward Index
Regulatory Review
Regulatory Regime
Intellectual Property Issues
Pricing Regime
Reimbursement Regime
Market Overview
Healthcare Sector
Table: Healthcare Resources (Iraq 2010-2015)
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Iraq 2010-2015)
Table: Healthcare Activity (Iraq 2010-2015)
Research & Development
Clinical Trials
Competitive Landscape
Research-Based Industry
Table: Multinational Market Activity
Generic Drugmakers
Pharmaceutical Distribution
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
Company Profile
State Company For Drugs Industries And Medical Appliances (Ninewa)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Iraq 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Iraq 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Iraq 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Iraq 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Iraq 1990-2025)
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
Notes On Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Index Overview
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Indicator Weightings

The Iraq Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Iraq Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iraq pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Iraq, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iraqi pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iraqi pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iraq.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.


BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.