Iraq Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 13 January 2015

  • 80 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Iraq Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: The competitiveness of Iraq's pharmaceutical sector, as well as the ability of the government to ramp up healthcare investment , is linked to oil prices and additional foreign investment, which is, in turn, highly dependent on the security situation. The long-term prospects for the Iraqi pharmaceutical and healthcare markets therefore remain promising given rising healthcare expenditure and population growth. The Iraqi government reportedly pledged to invest USD12bn into healthcare expansion in 2014 , and the Ministry of Health recently awarded 18 health project contracts worth USD276mn. In the short term however, numerous factors will continue to hamper market growth , such as expected further political unrest with accompanying high levels of violence and even the possibility of a partition of the country.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: IQD1,620bn (USD1.39bn) in 2013 to IQD1,734bn (USD1.49bn) in 2014; +7.0% in local currency and +7.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast slightly higher than in Q414.

  • Healthcare: IQD9,701bn (USD8.33bn) in 2013 to IQD10,331bn (USD8.88bn) in 2014; +6.5% in local currency and +6.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast lower than Q414 due to macroeconomic conditions.

Risk/Reward Index

Iraq's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score for Q115 reflects the market's potential and its strong economic growth prospects. It performs better in terms of Rewards than Risks. In Q115 Iraq scores 40.5 out of 100, making it the 17th most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Middle East and African region. Its score has slightly decreased and the country lost one position in our index from Q414.

Key Trends And Developments

  • In November 2014, Baghdad Governorate opened a health centre for citizens in the Nahrwan area of northern Baghdad, according to IraqiNews.com. The governorate stated that the three-floor building was ready within 300 days to provide health services for citizens in the area. The Baghdad Health...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Iraq 2010-2018)
17
Healthcare Market Forecast
18
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Iraq 2010-2018)
20
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Iraq 2010-2018)
21
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Iraq 2010-2018)
22
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
23
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Iraq 2012-2018)
24
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Iraq 2012-2018)
24
Other Healthcare Data
25
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
27
Macroeconomic Forecasts
29
Iraq: Growth Forecasts Revised Downward
29
Table: Economic Activity (Iraq 2009-2018)
33
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
34
Middle East & Africa Risk/Reward Index
34
Iraq Risk/Reward Ratings
41
Rewards
41
Risks
41
Market Overview
43
Industry Trends And Developments
45
Epidemiology
45
Healthcare Sector
48
Healthcare Funding
49
Healthcare System Reform
51
Healthcare Infrastructure
52
Clinical Trials
53
Regulatory Development
54
Regulatory Regime
54
Intellectual Property Issues
56
Pricing Regime
57
Reimbursement Regime
58
Competitive Landscape
59
Pharmaceutical Sector
59
Pharmaceutical Company Developments
61
Pharmaceutical Distribution
62
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
62
Company Profile
63
Samarra
63
Ninewa
65
GlaxoSmithKline
67
Demographic Forecast
69
Demographic Outlook
69
Table: Iraq's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
70
Table: Iraq's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
71
Table: Iraq's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
72
Table: Iraq's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
72
Glossary
73
Methodology
75
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
75
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
75
Notes On Methodology
76
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
77
Ratings Overview
78
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
78
Indicator Weightings
79

The Iraq Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Iraq Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iraq pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Iraq, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iraqi pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iraqi pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iraq.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc