BMI View: Iraq's pharmaceutical market will remain an unattractive proposition for multinational drugmakers in the short - term at least. Lower oil prices and the presence of Islamic State will subdue government finances, and the cutting of subsidies will negatively impact consumer purchasing power, both feeding in to a subdued outlook for pharmaceutical consumption.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: IQD1,953bn (USD1.64bn) in 2014 to IQD2,106bn (USD1.74bn) in 2015; +7.8% in local currency and +5.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast downgraded from Q215 due to the availability of new trade data .
Healthcare: IQD13,347bn (USD11.2bn) in 2014 to IQD14,185bn (USD11.7bn) in 2015; +6.3% in local currency and +4.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast upgraded from Q215 given following the release of new data from the World Health Organization (WHO) .
Iraq's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score for Q315 reflects the market's potential and its strong economic growth prospects. It performs better in terms of Rewards than Risks. In Q315 Iraq scores 39.2 out of 100, making it the 18th most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Middle East and African region out of 31 countries analysed. Its score has slightly decreased but it maintains its position vis-a-vis Q215.
Key Trends And Developments
It was reported in May 2015 that if funds are now secured by the end of June, over 84% of healthcare projects serving populations in need in Iraq will be forced to close, according to the WHO.
Iraq and the Philippines signed a health cooperation protocol in March 2015.
In March 2015, Iraq's Council of Ministers agreed a USD5mn grant for the Ministry of Health to control the outbreak of seasonal flu.
BMI Economic View:
Growth in the Iraqi economy will accelerate in 2015 and 2016 due to increasing oil exports, but the domestic economy will remain in a crisis due to elevated security risks and low oil prices. We project real GDP expansion of...
The Iraq Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Iraq Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iraq pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Iraq, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iraqi pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Iraqi pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iraq.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.