Iraq Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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Iraq Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Iraq's pharmaceutical market will remain unattractive for multinational drugmakers over the medium term. The government is devoting a greater proportion of fiscal resources to strengthen Iraq's political and economic institutions, which are currently under an immense threat of collapse. This reflects volatile oil prices and the growing threat of Islamic State. This situation has created severe funding shortages to Iraq's healthcare sector, and many donor-funded health programmes have been forced to close, leaving a large number of citizens without access to urgently needed health services and medicines.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: IQD1.89trn (USD1.59bn) in 2014 to IQD2.02trn (USD1.67bn) in 2015; +6.6% in local currency and +4.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter due to the availability of new trade data .

  • Healthcare: IQD13.15trn (USD11.07bn) in 2014 to IQD13.98trn (USD11.54bn) in 2015; +6.3% in local currency and +4.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards slightly from last quarter.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Iraq 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 1.546 1.594 1.667 1.696 1.730 1.828 1.927
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 0.79 0.80 0.82 0.80 0.76 0.72 0.70
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 14.5 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.8
Health spending, USDbn 10.628 11.071 11.537 11.688 11.850 12.438 13.067

Risk/Reward Index

Iraq's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score for Q116 reflects the market's potential and its strong economic growth prospects. Iraq performs better in terms of Rewards than Risks. In Q116 Iraq scores 38.0 out of 100, making it the 16th most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Middle East and African region out of 31 countries analysed, above neighbouring Iran (33.9). Although Iraq's regional rank remains unchanged from the previous quarter, its score fell slightly from 39.2 in Q415.

Latest Updates

2015

  • In August 2015, it was reported that over three quarters of UN-backed health programmes in Iraq have been suspended due to funding shortages

  • In October 2015, Iraq was ranked as one of the lowest countries in terms of the quality and availability of palliative care, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit

  • In November 2015, Hikma Pharmaceuticals reported it has been negatively affected by political disruptions and currency movements in Iraq. In particular, this has impacted their branded products.

BMI Economic View

Iraq's economic growth will remain sluggish over the next two years at least, with the war against Islamic State and low global oil prices providing major headwinds to economic activity. This, combined with limited ability to curb government spending, means that Iraq will continue to run large public deficits in 2016. This reinforces our view that the Central Bank will depreciate the Iraqi dinar next year. Growth will be driven by a moderate increase in oil exports, and we forecast the economy to expand by 2.1% in 2016 and 2.3% in 2017, well below the 10.6% average recorded since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003.

BMI Political View

The passing of the anti-corruption bill will create momentum for PM Haider al-Abadi to reshape the political system of Iraq, crack down on corruption and significantly strengthen his power. Iraq will recapture Ramadi and Baiji over the coming months, with the help of Russian and Iranian intelligence, and further US support. This will provide momentum for further Iraqi advances against Islamic State, but it will not enable Iraqi forces to take back Mosul in a swift military campaign. Kurdish forces in northern Iraq, backed by US-led air strikes, have launched 'Operation Free Sinjar' - an offensive to recapture the town of Sinjar from Islamic State militants.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Iraq 2011-2019)
17
Healthcare Market Forecast
18
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Iraq 2011-2019)
19
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Iraq 2011-2019)
20
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Iraq 2011-2019)
20
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
21
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Iraq 2013-2019)
23
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Iraq 2013-2019)
23
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
23
Macroeconomic Forecasts
25
Economic Analysis
25
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
27
Table: IRAQ - Private Final Consumption Forecasts
29
Table: IRAQ - Government Final Consumption Forecasts
29
Table: IRAQ - Fixed Investment Forecasts
30
Table: IRAQ - Net Exports Forecasts
30
Industry Risk Reward Index
31
Middle East and Africa Risk/Reward Index
31
Iraq Risk/Reward Index
38
Rewards
38
Risks
38
Market Overview
40
Industry Trends And Developments
41
Epidemiology
41
Healthcare Sector
45
Table: Healthcare Resources (Iraq 2009-2014)
46
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Iraq 2009-2014)
46
Table: Healthcare Activity (Iraq 2009-2014)
47
Healthcare Funding
47
Healthcare System Reform
49
Healthcare Infrastructure
50
Pharmacovigilance
51
Clinical Trials
51
Regulatory Development
53
Regulatory Regime
53
Intellectual Property Issues
55
Pricing Regime
56
Reimbursement Regime
57
Competitive Landscape
58
Pharmaceutical Sector
58
Pharmaceutical Company Developments
60
Pharmaceutical Distribution
60
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
60
Company Profile
62
Samarra
62
Ninewa
64
GlaxoSmithKline
66
Awamedica
68
Demographic Forecast
70
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Iraq 1990-2025)
71
Table: Key Population Ratios (Iraq 1990-2025)
71
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Iraq 1990-2025)
72
Table: Population By Age Group (Iraq 1990-2025)
72
Table: Population By Age Group % (Iraq 1990-2025)
73
Glossary
75
Methodology
77
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
77
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
77
Notes On Methodology
78
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
79
Index Overview
80
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
80
Indicator Weightings
81

The Iraq Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Iraq Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iraq pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Iraq, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iraqi pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iraqi pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iraq.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.