BMI View: Iraq's ailing domestic landscape will dampen investor confidence in the country's pharmaceuticals and healthcare sectors over at least the next few years if not longer . Although the government remains committed to healthcare provision, economic and security headwinds will mean international support will remain key to ensuring the population's access to healthcare. Indeed, the domestic sector's capabilities will remain limited for the foreseeable future. T he Iraqi government's ability to attract investment and boost spending in the pharmaceutical and healthcare sector remain s closely linked to oil prices a nd, in turn economic stability, both of which remain highly volatile.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: IQD2.02trn (USD1.73bn) in 2015 to IQD2.11trn (USD1.79bn) in 2016; +4.7% in local currency and 3.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line in local currency terms and revised up wards in US dollar terms from last quarter .
Healthcare: IQD12.69trn (USD10.87bn) in 2015 to IQD13.40trn (USD11.33bn) in 2016; +5.6% in local currency and 4.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line in local currency terms and revised upwards in US dollar terms from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, UN Comtrade, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||1.620||1.730||1.790||1.880||1.970||2.070||2.160|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.78||1.02||1.14||1.01||0.89||0.84||0.79|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||15.8||15.9||15.8||15.7||15.6||15.5||15.5|
|Health spending, USDbn||10.300||10.870||11.330||11.960||12.630||13.330||13.930|
In Q416 we have revised downward Iraq's Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score to 35.2 from 37.6 in the previous quarter (out of a maximum 100 points). The score revision was mainly driven by a lower Industry Rewards Index score. Iraq is ranked 19th out of 31 markets in the Middle East and Africa Region in terms of attractiveness to pharmaceutical investors. While most score components are suffering from the effects of armed conflict and low oil prices, the pharmaceutical and healthcare sector will sustain its long-term potential for development.
In August 2016, the WHO opened a new primary health care centre in the Ashti internally displaced person (IDP) camp in Sulayaniyah, Iraq, with financial contributions by the Office of US Foreign Disaster Assistance and European Union Humanitarian Aid.
As of June 2016, the WHO is strengthening its focus on surveillance and response systems to potential epidemic outbreaks in refugee settlements in Iraq where more than 3.2mn displaced people live in poor sanitary conditions.
In line with Iraq's essential medicines programme, in June 2016 the WHO stated plans to support the Iraqi pharmaceutical sector's key targets over the coming years, including ensuring that the national medicine policy becomes an integral part of national health policy, the increase of transparency with regard to pharmaceutical laws and regulations and the assessment of an appropriate organisational structure for the pharmaceutical sector, among others.
On July 20 2016, on occasion of the Iraq Pledging Conference co-hosted by several developed countries in Washington, 26 international donors pledged USD2.1bn in support of stabilisation and recovery programs in Iraq, which include a strong focus on health services.
BMI Economic View
The Iraqi economy will continue to face headwinds of political instability and low oil prices over the coming quarters. Output growth in the hydrocarbon sector will provide some support, but 2016 will mark another year of recession.
BMI Political View
Military progress against Islamic State in Iraq is no panacea for the country's protracted political crisis. Increasing poverty, sectarian tensions and power struggles are among the main factors that will keep Iraq deeply unstable over the coming quarters and beyond.
The Iraq Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Iraq Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iraq pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Iraq, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iraqi pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Iraqi pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iraq.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.