BMI View: Heightened political instability in Iraq will pose downside risks to healthcare reconstruction programs over the short term. In the long term, however, despite the challenging economic and political environment, Iraq ' s health sector outlook will remain positive. Progression towards improving Iraq ' s healthcare sector will largely depend on the country's economic growth and the strength of the oil sector. T he government will remain committed to rebuilding Iraq's health sector over the coming decade, supported by expanding international cooperation.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: IQD2.02trn (USD1.68bn) in 2015 to IQD2.12trn (USD1.64bn) in 2016; +5.1% in local currency and -2.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter .
Healthcare: IQD12.69trn (USD10.55bn) in 2015 to IQD13.40trn (USD10.32bn) in 2016; +5.6% in local currency and -2.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, UN Comtrade, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||1.620||1.680||1.640||1.710||1.770||1.850||1.920|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.80||1.02||1.13||1.01||0.89||0.85||0.81|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||16.0||15.9||15.9||15.8||15.8||15.8||15.9|
|Health spending, USDbn||10.140||10.550||10.320||10.790||11.230||11.680||12.080|
In Q316 we have revised upwards Iraq's Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score to 37.6 from 36.4 in the previous quarter (out of a maximum 100 points). The score revision was mainly driven by higher industry rewards indices. Iraq has shifted up two positions to 19th out of 31 markets in the Middle East and Africa Region in terms of attractiveness to pharmaceutical investors. While most score components are suffering from the effects of armed conflict and low oil prices, the pharmaceutical and healthcare sector will sustain its long-term potential for development.
In April 2016, the Government of Japan approved an allocation of USD3mn to two WHO projects on vital life-saving public health and communicable diseases initiatives to be implemented across 11 governorates in Iraq.
In March 2016, an international review of the national tuberculosis control programme of Iraq was commissioned by the WHO to take an in-depth assessment at the performance of the programme within the context of current large-scale internal displacement and critical socioeconomic conditions in the country.
In response to the country's ailing health sector, in February 2016, Iraq's Ministry of Health and the WHO finalised a joint cooperation plan for 2016 and 2017, which will complement the ongoing medium and long-term development strategies already in place in the Middle Eastern country.
On February 28 2016, the first round of the 2016 nationwide polio vaccination campaign started in Iraq, which is forecast to immunise nearly 6mn children across the entire country.
BMI Economic View
As a result of low oil prices and war cost headwinds, the Iraqi economy contracted by 3.9% y-o-y in 2014, 0.7% in 2015, and we forecast only limited growth of 0.3% in 2016.
BMI Political View
Political tensions in Baghdad have increased to a new high since the beginning of April, as political parties clash over a government reshuffle called for by many parliamentarians and the populace. While the consequences could be even more dire than we currently expect, the protracted crisis will delay military progress against Islamic State, reconstruction of war-torn areas, and the reintegration of internally displaced Iraqis.
The Iraq Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Iraq Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iraq pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Iraq, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iraqi pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Iraqi pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iraq.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.