BMI View: Iraq's pharmaceutical market will remain unattractive for multinational drugmakers over the medium term. The government is devoting a greater proportion of fiscal resources to strengthen Iraq's political and economic institutions, which are currently under an immense threat of collapse. This reflects volatile oil prices and the growing threat of Islamic State. This situation has created severe funding shortages to Iraq's healthcare sector, and many donor-funded health programmes have been forced to close, leaving a large number of citizens without access to urgently needed health services and medicines.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: IQD1.89trn (USD1.59bn) in 2014 to IQD2.02trn (USD1.67bn) in 2015; +6.6% in local currency and +4.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter due to the availability of new trade data .
Healthcare: IQD13.15trn (USD11.07bn) in 2014 to IQD13.98trn (USD11.54bn) in 2015; +6.3% in local currency and +4.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards slightly from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||1.546||1.594||1.667||1.696||1.730||1.828||1.927|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.79||0.80||0.82||0.80||0.76||0.72||0.70|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||14.5||14.4||14.4||14.5||14.6||14.7||14.8|
|Health spending, USDbn||10.628||11.071||11.537||11.688||11.850||12.438||13.067|
Iraq's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score for Q116 reflects the market's potential and its strong economic growth prospects. Iraq performs better in terms of Rewards than Risks. In Q116 Iraq scores 38.0 out of 100, making it the 16th most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Middle East and African region out of 31 countries analysed, above neighbouring Iran (33.9). Although Iraq's regional rank remains unchanged from the previous quarter, its score fell slightly from 39.2 in Q415.
In August 2015, it was reported that over three quarters of UN-backed health programmes in Iraq have been suspended due to funding shortages
In October 2015, Iraq was ranked as one of the lowest countries in terms of the quality and availability of palliative care, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit
In November 2015, Hikma Pharmaceuticals reported it has been negatively affected by political disruptions and currency movements in Iraq. In particular, this has impacted their branded products.
BMI Economic View
Iraq's economic growth will remain sluggish over the next two years at least, with the war against Islamic State and low global oil prices providing major headwinds to economic activity. This, combined with limited ability to curb government spending, means that Iraq will continue to run large public deficits in 2016. This reinforces our view that the Central Bank will depreciate the Iraqi dinar next year. Growth will be driven by a moderate increase in oil exports, and we forecast the economy to expand by 2.1% in 2016 and 2.3% in 2017, well below the 10.6% average recorded since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003.
BMI Political View
The passing of the anti-corruption bill will create momentum for PM Haider al-Abadi to reshape the political system of Iraq, crack down on corruption and significantly strengthen his power. Iraq will recapture Ramadi and Baiji over the coming months, with the help of Russian and Iranian intelligence, and further US support. This will provide momentum for further Iraqi advances against Islamic State, but it will not enable Iraqi forces to take back Mosul in a swift military campaign. Kurdish forces in northern Iraq, backed by US-led air strikes, have launched 'Operation Free Sinjar' - an offensive to recapture the town of Sinjar from Islamic State militants.
The Iraq Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Iraq Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iraq pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Iraq, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iraqi pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Iraqi pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iraq.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.