BMI View: A significant increase in Ireland ' s 2017 health budget will support the increasing demand for medical treatment. However, cost control measures targeting pharmaceutical spending and the relatively small drug market will continue to tarnish Ireland ' s market appeal to drugmakers. Meanwhile, active support from the Irish government, a skilled workforce and the well-developed export base will ensure that pharmaceutical investment in R&D and manufacturing capacity in Ireland remain robust in the years ahead.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR2.32bn (USD2.57bn) in 2015 to EUR2.28bn (USD2.44bn) in 2016; -1.8% in local currency terms and -5.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line in local currency terms and revised downwards in US dollar terms from last quarter.
Healthcare: EUR15.09bn (USD16.73bn) in 2015 to EUR15.49bn (USD16.57bn) in 2016; +2.7% in local currency terms and -1.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line in local currency terms and revised downwards in US dollar terms from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||3.158||2.573||2.437||2.360||2.281||2.238||2.255|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.26||1.08||1.01||0.95||0.89||0.85||0.80|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||16.2||15.4||14.7||14.1||13.6||13.2||12.9|
|Health spending, USDbn||19.521||16.732||16.572||16.722||16.730||16.920||17.482|
In Q117, we have revised upwards Ireland's Risk Reward Index (RRI) score to 63.0 from 61.0 previously (out of 100). The score revision was driven by higher Industry Rewards indices. Ireland shifted up one ranking position to 13th out of 15 countries in Western Europe in terms of market attractiveness to pharmaceutical investors. Ireland's score is driven by high spending per capita on medicine and low industry and country risks but is dragged down by a small market size as well as the effects of cost control measures targeting pharmaceutical and health spending.
As of information reported in October 2016, Ireland's health budget for 2017 will see an increase of almost EUR1bn (USD1.1bn) compared to the previous year, equating to a 7.4% rise to EUR14.6bn (EUR15.9bn).
In October 2016, Carrick Therapeutics, which is building an innovative portfolio of first-in-class treatments for cancer, secured USD95mn funding from ARCH Venture Partners and Woodford Investment Management with participation from Cambridge Enterprise Seed Funds, Cambridge Innovation Capital, Evotec, GV (Google Ventures), and Lightstone Venture.
Also in October 2016, Mallinckrodt opened new offices in the College Business and Technology Park in Blanchardstown, Dublin, Ireland. Additionally, the firm has announced the creation of a new EUR10mn (USD11.2mn) R&D facility at the location.
GE Pharmaceuticals is to invest EUR150mn (USD167.5mn) in a new biopharmaceutical manufacturing campus on Industrial Development Agency (IDA) Ireland's strategic site at Loughbeg, Ringaskiddy, Co Cork, as of October 2016.
In August 2016, Flamel Technologies received shareholder approval to reincorporate its country of domicile to Ireland from France via a cross-border merger.
BMI Economic View
Ireland's economy will remain one of the EU's best performers over the next decade, even if current rates of extremely fast economic expansion are unlikely to last.
BMI Political View
The confidence and supply agreement between Ireland's ruling minority Fine Gael-Independent coalition and Fianna Fail means that the sustainability of the government will be fragile. Nevertheless, we believe that the current government will serve its term at least until its official performance assessment in September 2018.
The Ireland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Ireland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ireland pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Ireland, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Irish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Irish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ireland.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.