BMI View: Ireland ' s pharmaceutical and healthcare sector will continue to observe strong development ov er a multi-quarter horizon. This outlook is reflected in ongoing solid levels of investment and job creation in both the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries. While pharmaceutical exports will continue to be supported by Ireland ' s main export markets growth, including the US, the UK and Western Europe, the domestic Irish market, albeit small in regional terms, will gradually recover and return to growth on the back of economic expansion , rising consumption and government ' s fiscal loosening over the forecast period.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR2.32bn (USD2.55bn) in 2015 to EUR2.27bn (USD2.43bn) in 2016; -2.2% in local currency terms and -4.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised slightly downwards from last quarter.
Healthcare: EUR14.87bn (USD16.35bn) in 2015 to EUR15.08bn (USD16.14bn) in 2016; 1.5% in local currency terms and -1.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||3.189||2.552||2.429||2.465||2.562||2.675||2.694|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.26||1.14||1.05||0.98||0.93||0.88||0.84|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||16.1||15.6||15.0||14.6||14.2||13.9||13.6|
|Health spending, USDbn||19.756||16.353||16.140||16.885||18.024||19.249||19.766|
In Q216, we have revised upwards Ireland's Risk Reward Index score to 62.2 from 60.9 in the prior quarter (out of 100). The score revision was mainly driven by higher industry rewards indices, including higher market value and sector value growth indices. Nonetheless, Ireland retains its ranking position of 14 out of 15 countries in Western Europe in terms of attractiveness to pharmaceutical investors. Ireland's score is driven by high spending per capita on medicine and low industry and country risks, but dragged down by a small market size as well as the effects of recent years of austerity targeting health spending.
February 201 6
US pharmaceutical firm Merck Sharp & Dohme announced that due to its continued increase in supply of products internationally from Ireland, it will create 200 jobs across its Irish sites in the cities of Carlow, Cork and Tipperary in 2016.
Irish health and residential care provider Nua Healthcare announced that it will create 800 jobs over the next three years, with 300 of these positions expected to be filled in 2016.
Irish research-based pharmaceutical firm APC announced the opening of its Dublin headquarters and the creation of 100 jobs.
Irish pharmaceutical manufacturer Chanelle Group, which currently employs 375 people, is to make a EUR70mn investment that will double its production capacity and add to its research and development capabilities, as it looks to export generic drugs to the US market.
Irish-based Shire acquired US-based Baxalta in January 2016 (which will create the number one rare diseases platform in revenue and pipeline depth) and US-based Dyax in February 2016, although we will see Shire's acquisitive strategy to expand its pipeline declining in 2016 as the company develops its library of drug candidates and increases its focus on rare diseases and away from CNS as its traditional area of strength.
BMI Economic View
Ireland's robust economic recovery is sustainable, and will continue apace in 2016 and 2017.
BMI Political View
Ruling Fine Gael will remain in power after the general election, ensuring broad policy continuity in the years ahead.
The Ireland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Ireland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ireland pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Ireland, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Irish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Irish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ireland.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.