Ireland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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Ireland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: In line with our long-standing view, manufacturing investment in Ireland's pharmaceutical sector remained strong in H215, and we expect this trend to continue over a multi-quarter horizon. Sustained expansion of Ireland's economy will be underpinned by an increasingly robust consumer spending story, as well as accelerating export demand, which are set to benefit pharmaceutical production indices and overall healthcare sector growth. However, despite a recent increase in budget spending, we expect the Irish government to continue focusing on cost control measures across the healthcare sector, including through the increased use of generic medicines and price pressure, which will continue to weigh on market growth potential.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: EUR2.39bn (USD3.20bn) in 2014 to EUR2.35bn (USD2.59bn) in 2015; -1.5% in local currency terms and -19.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter.

  • Healthcare: EUR14.74bn (USD19.76bn) in 2014 to EUR14.87bn (USD16.35bn) in 2015; 0.8% in local currency terms and -17.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Ireland 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 3.225 3.203 2.589 2.492 2.556 2.682 2.827
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 1.40 1.29 1.19 1.12 1.06 1.01 0.97
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 16.7 16.2 15.8 15.4 15.1 14.9 14.7
Health spending, USDbn 19.320 19.756 16.353 16.140 16.874 18.013 19.237

Risk/Reward Index

In Q1 2016, we have revised downwards Ireland's Risk Reward Index score to 60.9 from 61.9 in the prior quarter (out of 100). The score revision was due to lower population growth indices. Against this backdrop, Ireland has now shifted down one ranking position to 14 out of 15 countries in Western Europe in terms of attractiveness to pharmaceutical investors. Ireland's score is driven by high spending per capita on medicine (spending per capita score 9.6 out of 12) and low industry and country risks (patent respect score 6.3 out of 7 and business transparency score 1.9 out of 2), but dragged down by a small market size (market expenditure score 12 out of 20) and weak dynamism (sector value growth score 0.0 out of 20).

Latest Updates

November 2015

  • US-based drugmaker Pfizer announced that it would acquire Allergan in a deal valued at USD160bn, in a bid to lower its US tax burden, which represents one of the largest takeovers in the pharmaceutical industry on record, while it would create the world's biggest drugmaker and move Pfizer's headquarters from New York to Ireland.

  • Mylan failed in its bid to acquire Perrigo, with 60% of shares not being tendered by the acquisition deadline on November 13 2015.

  • Several drugmakers announced investments in pharmaceutical facilities in Ireland, including US-based drugmaker Pfizer at its facilities at Grange Castle, west Dublin and Ringaskiddy and Little Island sites in Cork (which will create 130 jobs) over the next year, Spanish healthcare company Grifols at a new facility in Dublin to create 140 jobs, and US-based drugmaker Regeneron USD350mn investment in its biologics production facility in Limerick.

October 2015

  • The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) called for a reversal in the trend towards voluntary health insurance in Ireland and advised the Irish government to provide universal healthcare in order to improve the fiscal sustainability of the health system.

  • Ireland's Finance Minister Michael Noonan announced a 6.25% patent box tax on intellectual property (half the rate of the standard company tax levy of 12.5%) in order to continue to attract overseas investment, which would compete with similar benefits offered by other countries such as the UK and the Netherlands.

BMI Economic View

Ireland will remain one of the fastest growing economies in the developed world in 2015 and 2016, underpinned by strong private consumption and exports. Ireland's robust growth story looks sustainable, amid progress unwinding massive dual fiscal and current account deficits.

BMI Political View

Increasing threats to Northern Ireland's power sharing Executive will dent already declining support for Sinn Fein in the Republic of Ireland. Although the result of the next election, due by April 2016, remains uncertain, the deteriorating fortunes of Sinn Fein and Ireland's increasingly robust economy suggests Fine Gael have a growing chance of remaining in power following the vote.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ireland 2011-2019)
16
Healthcare Market Forecast
17
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ireland 2011-2019)
20
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ireland 2011-2019)
20
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ireland 2011-2019)
20
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ireland 2011-2019)
23
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
24
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ireland 2011-2019)
25
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
26
Table: Top 15 Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Export Companies In 2013
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Ireland 2013-2019)
29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Ireland 2013-2019)
29
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
30
Macroeconomic Forecasts
31
Economic Analysis
31
Table: Economic Activity (Ireland 2010-2019)
39
Industry Risk Reward Index
40
Western Europe Risk/Reward Index - Q4 2015
40
Ireland Risk/Reward Index
45
Rewards
45
Risks
46
Market Overview
47
Industry Trends And Developments
48
Epidemiology
48
Healthcare Sector
49
Health Insurance
51
Table: Health Status
53
Table: Healthcare Funding
53
Table: Healthcare Resources (Ireland 2009-2014)
54
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Ireland 2009-2014)
54
Table: Healthcare Activity (Ireland 2009-2014)
55
Research And Development
55
Clinical Trials
56
Regulatory Development
58
Pricing Regime
62
Reimbursement Regime
65
Competitive Landscape
68
Research-Based Industry
68
Table: Pharmaceutical Companies In Ireland
72
Generic Drugmakers
73
Pharmaceutical Distribution
75
Demographic Forecast
77
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ireland 1990-2025)
78
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ireland 1990-2025)
78
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Ireland 1990-2025)
79
Table: Population By Age Group (Ireland 1990-2025)
79
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ireland 1990-2025)
80
Glossary
82
Methodology
84
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
84
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
84
Notes On Methodology
85
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
86
Index Overview
87
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
87
Indicator Weightings
88

The Ireland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Ireland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ireland pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Ireland, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Irish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Irish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ireland.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.