BMI View: The US Treasury Department 's modification of tax rules in order to discourage tax inversions will continue to curb the number of M&A deals in the pharmaceutical industry that allow companies to be headquarter ed in Ireland. This is reflected in the recent withdrawal of various M&A deals, including the termination of the merger between AbbVie and Shire, for which transaction terms were already under negotiation when the new rules came into effect. However, the trend of consolidation in the pharmaceutical sector will remain for the foreseeable future, while Irish - listed equities will continue to be the subject of substantial M&A interest due to attractive drug pipelines, labour force e xpertise and a benign tax regime. Meanwhile, Ireland's robust economic recovery, combined with rising private consumption and a deceleration in government spending cuts, pose upside risks to pharmaceuticals and healthcare sector growth forecasts over the coming quarters.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR2.10bn (USD2.77bn) in 2013 to EUR2.01bn (USD2.69bn) in 2014; -4.0% in local currency terms and -2.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with previous quarter.
Healthcare: EUR13.00bn (USD17.16bn) in 2013 to EUR13.02bn (USD17.45bn) in 2014; 0.2% in local currency terms and 1.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with previous quarter.
Risk/Reward Index: Ireland's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score for Q115 is 61.9 out of 100, lower than the regional score of 68.0, placing it 14th out of 15 countries in Western Europe. Despite a high level of per capita drug spending (comparable to Sweden and higher than the Netherlands and Italy), Ireland's RRI score is dragged down by a comparatively small population, and the effects of austerity measures, which weigh on Ireland's Reward indices. However, in terms of business environment and Risk indices, Ireland boasts substantially high scores, including a...
The Ireland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Ireland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ireland pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Ireland, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Irish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Irish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ireland.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.