Although BMI had been concerned that the conflict in Gaza during Q314 would undermine new vehicle sales in Israel - which were down by 12.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the month of July - there was no lasting effect. So, based on current buoyant sales trends, BMI is targeting full-year total new vehicle sales of around 260,000 units, representing annual growth of around 16%.
BMI believes that there will be a slowdown in new vehicle sales growth in 2015. We are targeting growth of 4.5% in passenger car sales, with slightly stronger growth of 7% for the commercial vehicle sector. Passenger car sales could well be undermined by higher taxes and still-depressed consumer confidence. That said, passenger cars will continue to account for the lion's share (77%) of total new vehicle sales in 2015. Over the full forecast period to 2018, we are targeting 24% growth in the overall Israeli new vehicle sales market, which will take annual sales to just above the 320,000 unit mark.
On the positive side, a growing economy should lend support to new vehicle sales across 2015 and beyond. BMI's Country Risk team is forecasting GDP growth of 3.3%, up from 2.5% estimated for 2014. A moderation of austerity policies over the coming years, coupled with increasing exports and a subsequent acceleration in fixed investment growth, underpin our positive view for the Israeli economy over the next five years and we forecast real GDP growth to average 3.6% over this period.
Turning to private consumption, a key indicator of likely demand for new vehicles, we are forecasting growth of 3.5%, up from 3% in 2014. Low interest rates - the Bank of Israel cut interest rates twice over Q314 to take the policy rate to 0.25% - should also prove supportive to vehicle demand, as they feed into lower rates for car loans, which will aid those Israeli consumers dependent on auto financing for new car purchases. In this context, we believe that there may be a further 0.1% cut in Q414, with these ultra low...
The Israel Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's Israel Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Israel.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Israel to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Israeli automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Israeli automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Israel.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.