Israel Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Israel Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Political risks have increased sharply, with more than one hundred Israeli and Palestinian deaths recorded between October and November 2015, and with no sign of appeasement in tensions. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu controls a coalition with a majority of just one seat in the Knesset and it is likely that it will not be able to see out its four year term. Economic growth will accelerate over the coming quarters, as government spending increases, and as exports and private consumption pick up following one-off slumps.

Key Risks

  • A delay in the Fed hiking its policy rate would lead to the shekel appreciating sooner than we anticipate. The export sector - which accounts for 35% of GDP - would suffer from a strengthening currency.

  • The ultra-Orthodox push to roll back on reforms implemented in the previous years could lead to the long-term fiscal outlook being significantly weakened in addition to lowering productivity growth in the long-run.

  • The current wave of violence between Israelis and Palestinians could escalate to a conflict between Israel and Hamas, or to a full-scale armed insurrection similar to the first and second intifadas.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Israel 2013-2016)
Indicator 2013 2014 2015f 2016f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 3.2 2.8 2.1 3.4
Nominal GDP, USDbn 290.6 303.8 284.6 308.6
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 1.8 -0.2 0.0 1.5
Exchange rate ILS/USD, eop 3.47 3.90 3.80 3.75
Budget balance, % of GDP -3.3 -2.9 -2.5 -3.2
Current account balance, % of GDP 2.4 3.0 3.7 3.4
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Foreign Policy
8
Learning To Live With An Iran Deal
8
table: Political Overview
8
table: US Grants To Israel, USDmn
9
table: US Defence Budget Appropriations for US-Israeli Missile Defence, USDmn
9
Long-Term Political Outlook
10
Long-Lasting Peace With The Palestinians Unlikely
10
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Index
13
Economic Activity
14
Private Consumption And Exports To Drive Growth Acceleration
14
table: Private Consumption Forecasts
14
table: Government Consumption Forecasts
14
table: Fixed Investment Forecasts
15
table: Net Exports Forecasts
15
Fiscal Policy
16
High Budget Uncertainty, But Fiscal Threats Limited
16
table: Fiscal Policy
16
Balance Of Payments
17
Weak Euro To Continue Hitting Exporters
17
table: Current Account
18
Monetary Policy
19
Monetary Easing To Continue
19
table: Monetary Policy
19
Economic Activity II
20
Growth Accelerating, Confidence Building
20
Economic Activity III
21
Q2 Slump Temporary
21
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
25
The Israeli Economy To 2024
25
Encouraging Growth Prospects Over The Coming Decade
25
table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
25
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
29
SWOT Analysis
29
Operational Risk Index
29
Operational Risk
30
tab le: Operational Risk
30
Market Size And Utilities
31
tab le: Market Size And Utilities Risk
32
tab le: MENA - Interstate Security Risk
35
International Security Risk
36
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
39
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
39
table: Pharmaceutica l Sales
40
table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends
40
Shipping
42
table: Major Ports Data
43
Other Key Sectors
47
Table: Oil & Gas Sector Key Indicators
47
Table: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators
47
table: Defence & Security Sector Key Indicators
48
Table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators
48
Table: Autos Sector Key Indicators
48
Table: Food & Drink Sector Key Indicators
49
Table: Freight Key Indicators
49
Chapter 6: BMI Global Macro Outlook
51
Global Macro Outlook
51
China Crisis To Have Far-Reaching Impact
51
Table: Global Assumptions
51
Table: Develop ed Stat es, Real GDP Growt H, %
52
Table: BMI VER SUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
52
Table: Emerging Markets , Real GDP Growth , %
53

Assess your risk exposure in Israel with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Israel with confidence.

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