Political risks have increased sharply, with more than one hundred Israeli and Palestinian deaths recorded between October and November 2015, and with no sign of appeasement in tensions. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu controls a coalition with a majority of just one seat in the Knesset and it is likely that it will not be able to see out its four year term. Economic growth will accelerate over the coming quarters, as government spending increases, and as exports and private consumption pick up following one-off slumps.
A delay in the Fed hiking its policy rate would lead to the shekel appreciating sooner than we anticipate. The export sector - which accounts for 35% of GDP - would suffer from a strengthening currency.
The ultra-Orthodox push to roll back on reforms implemented in the previous years could lead to the long-term fiscal outlook being significantly weakened in addition to lowering productivity growth in the long-run.
The current wave of violence between Israelis and Palestinians could escalate to a conflict between Israel and Hamas, or to a full-scale armed insurrection similar to the first and second intifadas.
|Real GDP growth, % y-o-y||3.2||2.8||2.1||3.4|
|Nominal GDP, USDbn||290.6||303.8||284.6||308.6|
|Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop||1.8||-0.2||0.0||1.5|
|Exchange rate ILS/USD, eop||3.47||3.90||3.80||3.75|
|Budget balance, % of GDP||-3.3||-2.9||-2.5||-3.2|
|Current account balance, % of GDP||2.4||3.0||3.7||3.4|
Assess your risk exposure in Israel with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Israel with confidence.
Your subscription service includes:
- Delivery of the report in print, PDF and online formats
- The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
- The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
- The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription
- Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report