BMI View: We forecast positive growth across Israel's freight transport modes in 2016 and 2017 . This is an improvement on recent years, when the sector has seen declining volumes on air planes and at the country's major ports, owing to sluggish economic growth - domestically and in major trade partner Europe - and political instability on its borders with other states, and with Gaza . Political ri sk is always a threat in Israel and could derail our forecasts should further war break out with Gaza or other of Israel's neighbours .
Israel will see a recovery in its total trade real growth in 2016. We forecast there will be 3.3% expansion, following an estimated 2.5% real contraction in total trade in 2015. This will be driven by a 5.0% boost in imports, while exports will undergo much slower growth at 1.5%. The disparity between the two will diminish in 2017, when imports will expand 5.0% once more, but exports will see stronger growth at 3.5%. Real growth in trade will remain positive over our medium-term forecast period, averaging 4.5% annually to 2020. This marks an improvement over the previous five years when trade growth averaged 2.1% annually due to the global economic crisis and political unrest.
We forecast road haulage volumes in Israel will expand by 3.3% in 2016, marking an acceleration on 2015's estimated growth of 0.1%. Our forecasts are predicated primarily on the macroeconomic outlook for Israel in 2016, where we see real GDP growth picking up to 3.4% following an estimated 2.1% in 2015. Our 2015 estimate was a downward revision from our previous outlook of 2.6% in 2015, owing to ongoing violence in the country. Given its erratic nature, we do not believe that the current wave of violence in Israel will subside before end-2015, impacting private consumption in Q415 and headline growth for 2015.
We expect rail freight will be the outperforming freight transport mode in Israel in 2016 and over our medium-term forecast period to 2020. Although Israel's road and air freight sectors are both fairly well developed, there is still large-scale investment going on in rail freight, which will support continued growth in the sector. In 2016, we forecast rail freight volumes will expand 4.0%, compared to a forecast 3.3% in road freight and 1.2% in air freight. If realised, our forecast would result in 8.15mn tonnes being transported by rail by year-end. Growth will be 4.1% in 2017, rising to 4.5% in 2020.
According to our forecasts, Israeli air freight volumes will grow by 1.2% in 2016, falling moderately to 1.1% in 2017. Israel's air freight sector, unlike many in the region, is aimed primarily at the domestic market, unlike the emerging air freight hubs of the Middle East Gulf, such as Dubai International, Dubai World Central, Doha International or Abu Dhabi International. As a result, growth in volumes at Israel's airports - chiefly handled at Ben Gurion International, the country's primary facility - is driven by Israel's own macroeconomic concerns, less susceptible to the vagaries of the global economy than those transhipment hubs. One effect of this is fairly sedate growth expectations, given that Israel is a fairly developed economy, especially when compared to its regional counterparts, resulting in high statistical base effects.
We forecast total road freight volumes will increase by 3.3% in 2016 to reach 27.04mn tonnes. Growth will rise to 3.4% in 2017.
We forecast total rail freight volumes will climb 4.0% in 2016 to reach 8.15mn tonnes. Growth will be 4.1% in 2017.
We forecast total air freight volumes will rise by 1.2% in 2016 to reach 286,186 tonnes. Growth will be 1.1% in 2017.
We forecast total nominal trade value to rise by 9.7% to reach USD188.77bn in 2016.
The top trade partners will be the US, China, Germany, the UK, Belgium and Switzerland.
The Israel Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
BMI Research's Israel Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Israeli freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Israel to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Israeli freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Israel.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
- Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Industry Trends and Developments
Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.