Israel Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Israel Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Prime Minister Benjamin Netenyahu is expected to pass the natural gas framework in December 2015, stabili sing the uncertainty in Israel's offshore regulatory and spurring new exploration . Small- scale gas exports to Jordan will begin from 2017.

Headline Forecasts (Israel 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 0.5 0.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7
Dry natural gas production, bcm 6.4 7.6 8.6 9.9 10.2 12.2 14.2
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 7.0 7.6 8.7 9.8 10.0 10.1 11.3
Refined products production, 000b/d 276.0 280.7 284.6 284.0 280.0 271.6 267.6
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 238.2 234.8 238.8 237.4 231.7 227.4 220.6
Brent, USD/bbl 108.70 99.50 55.00 54.00 53.00 60.00 64.00

We highlight the following trends and developments in Israel's oil and gas sector:

  • Prime Minister Benjamin Netenyahu is due to approve the gas framework in December forcing the following restructuring of the Israeli offshore:

    • Delek Group is to sell its entire 31% stake in the Tamar field within six years.

    • Noble Energy is to reduce its stake in the Tamar field within six years from 36% to 25%, but will remain operator.

    • Both Noble and Delek will be required to sell their entire holdings in the Karish and Tanin fields within 14 months.

    • Export quotas from the divestment of these fields will be transferred to the Leviathan field, but only once the Tanin and Karish fields are connected to the mainland.

  • The gas framework will allow for new exploration in 2016, with Minister Yuval Steinitz expecting to offer new exploration licenses.

  • The gas framework will progress work on the Tamar expansion project, which we forecast to increase production from mid-2018.

  • We have put back our forecast for first gas from the Leviathan project until 2020 and see growing risks to the development from a lack of large volume export contracts.

  • Exports from Leviathan to the Idku LNG terminal in Egypt are looking less likely following the farm-in of BG group to the Aphrodite field in Cyprus.

  • The Leviathan partners are reportedly in negotiation with Egypt's Dolphinus for 4bcm supply over 10-15 years - though larger gas contracts will be needed to support the development.

  • Gas exports to Arab Potash and Jordan Bromine are due to begin in 2017.

  • Low oil prices have supported strong refining margins at Israel's two refineries over 2015 and increased refined products production.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Israel 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Israel 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Israel 2019-2024)
11
Upstream Projects
15
Table: Key Upstream Projects In Israel
15
Upstream Production - Oil
19
Table: Oil Production (Israel 2013-2018)
19
Table: Oil Production (Israel 2019-2024)
19
Upstream Production - Gas
22
Table: Gas Production (Israel 2013-2018)
22
Table: Gas Production (Israel 2019-2024)
22
Table: Israeli Offshore Gas Discoveries
24
Table: Tamar Project Gas Sales Agreements
26
Refining
28
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Israel 2013-2018)
28
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Israel 2019-2024)
28
Refined Fuel Consumption
31
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Israel 2013-2018)
31
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Israel 2019-2024)
31
Gas Consumption
33
Table: Gas Consumption (Israel 2013-2018)
33
Table: Gas Consumption (Israel 2019-2024)
33
Trade - Oil
35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Israel 2013-2018)
35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Israel 2019-2024)
35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Israel 2013-2018)
37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Israel 2019-2024)
37
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Israel 2013-2018)
38
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Israel 2019-2024)
39
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Israel 2013-2018)
40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Israel 2019-2024)
41
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
44
Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
44
Table: BMI's Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index (RRI)
44
Middle East Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment
45
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
45
Limited Opportunities Downstream
47
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
47
Israel - Risk/Reward Index
50
Market Overview
52
Israel Energy Market Overview
52
Political Regime
52
Table: Israel Political Overview
52
Regulatory Structure
54
Fiscal Regime
54
Table: Key Petroleum Taxes
54
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
55
Oil Refineries
55
Table: Israel - Refineries
56
Oil Pipelines
56
Table: 750km Of Pipelines
56
Oil Terminals
57
Table: 3
57
Gas Storage
57
Competitive Landscape
59
Table: Key Players - Israeli Oil And Gas Sector
60
Table: Key Downstream Players
60
Company Profile
61
Noble Energy
61
Other Summaries
68
Regional Overview
74
Middle East Oil & Gas Regional Overview
74
Oil Production - Low Production Costs Support Expansion
74
Oil Consumption - Downstream Expansion, Subsidies Drive Demand
76
Refining Capacity - Outcompeting With Advanced Mega Refineries
77
Gas Production - More Gas Needed
78
Gas Consumption - Gas Switch Boosting Demand
80
Global Industry Overview
82
Global Energy Market Overview
82
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
82
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
85
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
86
Appendix
88
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
88
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
88
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
89
Middle East - Regional Appendix
90
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
90
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
91
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
91
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
92
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
93
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
93
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
94
Table: Gas Consumption, 2016-2024 (bcm)
94
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
95
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
96
Table: Net LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
96
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
97
Israel - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
98
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Israel 2013-2018)
98
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Israel 2019-2024)
98
Israel - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
99
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Israel 2013-2018)
99
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Israel 2019-2024)
100
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Israel 2013-2018)
101
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Israel 2019-2024)
102
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Israel 2013-2018)
104
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Israel 2019-2024)
105
Glossary
106
Table: Glossary Of Terms
106
Methodology
108
Industry Forecast Methodology
108
Source
110
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
110
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
112
Table: Weighting
113

The Israel Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Israel including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Israel Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Israeli oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Israel to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Israeli oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Israeli oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Israel.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.