BMI View: Efforts to block the natural gas framework in the High Court continue drag out its implementation and mar investor confidence in the Israeli oil and gas sector. Exports of gas are expected to begin from H216.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||0.5||1.5||1.5||1.5||1.5||1.7||2.4|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||7.4||8.6||10.3||11.0||13.2||15.4||21.4|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||7.5||8.6||8.7||8.7||9.4||10.2||10.6|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||291.0||292.7||290.5||286.5||277.9||273.7||274.2|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||234.8||238.8||237.4||231.7||227.4||220.6||218.4|
We highlight the following trends and developments in Israel's oil and gas sector:
Prime Minister Benjamin Netenyahu approved the gas framework on December 17 2015.
Four successful petitions were filed with the High Court of Justice, in particular opposing the 'stability clause' which freezes regulatory and price changes for 10-15 years.
The Court suggested an independent legal solution should be sought for the stability clause, a deal unlikely to pass in Knesset. Uncertainty remains.
The framework would trigger the following restructuring of the Israeli offshore:
Delek Group is to sell its entire 31% stake in the Tamar field within six years.
Noble Energy is to reduce its stake in the Tamar field within six years from 36% to 25%, but will remain operator.
Both Noble and Delek will be required to sell their entire holdings in the Karish and Tanin fields within 14 months.
Export quotas from the divestment of these fields will be transferred to the Leviathan field, but only once the Tanin and Karish fields are connected to the mainland.
The gas framework will allow for new exploration once passed, with Minister Yuval Steinitz expecting to offer new exploration licenses.
The gas framework will progress work on the Tamar expansion project, which we forecast to increase production from mid-2018, and support progress on the Leviathan field.
We have revised down our gas forecast given the revised development plan for the first phase of the Leviathan project. We now calculate phase 1 will produce up to 12bcm from 2020, phase 2 is not yet forecast, but would add a further 9bcm.
Low oil prices have supported strong refining margins at Israel's two refineries over 2015 and increased refined products production.
The Israel Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Israel including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Israel Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Israeli oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Israel to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Israeli oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Israeli oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Israel.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.