Israel Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Israel Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: The recent approval of Israel ' s highly-contentious natural gas framework is fostering activity in the country ' s upstream sector. Israel has already announced plans to auction up to 24 new offshore blocks by the end of 2016, while the country's flagship Leviathan gas project is seeing progress with its development plan being approved in June. In light of these developments, w e hold our view that a lasting regulatory stability and successful implementation of Israel's new gas framework will be crucial for the development of the country's prospective gas industry.

Headline Forecasts (Israel 2014-2020)
2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, EIA
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 0.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.4
Refined products production, 000b/d 291.0 292.7 290.5 286.5 277.9 273.7 274.3
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 232.9 233.9 232.5 227.0 222.7 216.0 213.9
Dry natural gas production, bcm 7.5 8.0 8.6 9.0 11.7 13.9 19.8
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 7.6 8.7 9.1 9.6 10.4 11.3 11.7
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 46.50 57.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

  • On 22 May 2016, Israel's government approved the revised offshore gas plan, aiming to partially break up the offshore gas monopoly of Noble and Delek and establish a greater regulatory stability in the upstream sector. Importantly, a compromise has been found on the highly contentious 'stability clause', which is expected to foster exploration and development of major gas projects.

  • Israel is looking to auction up to 24 new offshore blocks by the end of 2016. Despite the resource potential, we see only marginal interest from companies with sufficient offshore knowledge and experience.

  • In August 2016, a Cypriot energy company Energean agreed to buy Israel's Tanin and Karish offshore gas fields from Delek for USD148.5mn. Within the six months from this date, Energean is expected to submit development plans for the two fields.

  • In June 2016, US-based Noble Energy received an approval from the Israeli authorities for its development plan for the Leviathan field. The development costs of phase one are estimated at USD3.5-4.0bn and the first production is slated for 2019.

  • As a part of Tamar field expansion, Delek and Noble expect to spud Tamar 8 well in Q4 2016. Total net expenses are valued at USD228mn. In the meantime, Noble has agreed to divest 3% of its working interest in Tamar field to the Israel-based Harel Group for USD369mn.

  • Supported by production from Tamar, Israel is set to become a net exporter of gas in 2018. New output from Leviathan is expected to lift the country's export volumes to more than 13bcm in the early 2020's. A further upside potential comes from Leviathan's phase two development.

  • The normalisation of relations between Turkey and Israel marks an initial step to a more pragmatic approach to potential gas trade. However, we believe the same political and logistical issue with regards to Cyprus, Lebanon and Syria will remain a hindrance to progress.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Israel 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Upstream Projects
14
Table: Key Upstream Projects In Israel
14
Upstream Production - Oil
17
Latest Updates
17
Structural Trends
17
Table: Oil Production (Israel 2014-2019)
19
Table: Oil Production (Israel 2020-2025)
19
Upstream Production - Gas
20
Latest Updates
20
Structural Trends
20
Table: Tamar Project Gas Sales Agreements
22
Table: Letters Of Intent To Supply Leviathan Gas
23
Table: Gas Production (Israel 2014-2019)
24
Table: Gas Production (Israel 2020-2025)
24
Refining
25
Latest Updates
25
Structural Trends
25
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Israel 2014-2019)
27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Israel 2020-2025)
27
Refined Fuel Consumption
28
Latest Updates
28
Structural Trends
28
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Israel 2014-2019)
30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Israel 2020-2025)
30
Gas Consumption
31
Latest Updates
31
Structural Trends
31
Table: Gas Consumption (Israel 2014-2019)
33
Table: Gas Consumption (Israel 2020-2025)
33
Trade - Oil
34
Latest Updates
34
Structural Trends
34
Crude Oil Trade Outlook
34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Israel 2014-2020)
35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Israel 2020-2025)
36
Refined Fuels Trade Outlook
36
Latest Updates
36
Structural Trends
36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Israel 2014-2019)
37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Israel 2020-2025)
38
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
39
Latest Updates
39
Structural Trends
39
Table: Leviathan Export Possibilities
41
Table: Gas Net Exports (Israel 2014-2019)
42
Table: Gas Net Exports (Israel 2020-2025)
42
Industry Risk Reward Index
43
Middle East - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
43
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
43
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment
44
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
44
Downstream: Limited Opportunities
46
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
46
Israel - Risk/Reward Index
49
Market Overview
51
Israel Energy Market Overview
51
Regulatory Structure
51
Fiscal Regime
51
Table: Key Petroleum Taxes
51
Licensing Regime
52
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
52
Oil Refineries
52
Table: Israel - Refineries
53
Oil Pipelines
53
Table: 750km Of Pipelines
53
Oil Terminals
54
Table: 3
54
Gas Storage
54
Gas Pipelines
55
Competitive Landscape
56
Table: Key Players - Israeli Oil And Gas Sector
57
Table: Key Downstream Players
58
Company Profile
59
Noble Energy
59
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Israel
60
Regional Overview
61
Middle East Oil & Gas Regional Overview
61
Oil Production: Two Tiers Emerging
61
Oil Consumption: Subsidy Reform Tempering Demand Growth
63
Table: Gasoline-95 Pump Price June 2015 & March 2016 (Usd/Litre)
63
Refining Capacity: Mega Refineries Outcompete In Oversupplied Market
65
Gas Production: In Need Of More Gas
66
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand
68
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Production, Refining Capacity & Trade
69
Glossary
70
Table: Glossary Of Terms
70
Methodology
72
Industry Forecast Methodology
72
Source
74
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
74
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
76
Table: Weighting
77

The Israel Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Israel including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Israel Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Israeli oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Israel to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Israeli oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Israeli oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Israel.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.