Israel Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Israel Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Efforts to block the natural gas framework in the High Court continue drag out its implementation and mar investor confidence in the Israeli oil and gas sector. Exports of gas are expected to begin from H216.

Headline Forecasts (Israel 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 0.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.4
Dry natural gas production, bcm 7.4 8.6 10.3 11.0 13.2 15.4 21.4
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 7.5 8.6 8.7 8.7 9.4 10.2 10.6
Refined products production, 000b/d 291.0 292.7 290.5 286.5 277.9 273.7 274.2
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 234.8 238.8 237.4 231.7 227.4 220.6 218.4
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 40.00 53.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

We highlight the following trends and developments in Israel's oil and gas sector:

  • Prime Minister Benjamin Netenyahu approved the gas framework on December 17 2015.

  • Four successful petitions were filed with the High Court of Justice, in particular opposing the 'stability clause' which freezes regulatory and price changes for 10-15 years.

  • The Court suggested an independent legal solution should be sought for the stability clause, a deal unlikely to pass in Knesset. Uncertainty remains.

  • The framework would trigger the following restructuring of the Israeli offshore:

    • Delek Group is to sell its entire 31% stake in the Tamar field within six years.

    • Noble Energy is to reduce its stake in the Tamar field within six years from 36% to 25%, but will remain operator.

    • Both Noble and Delek will be required to sell their entire holdings in the Karish and Tanin fields within 14 months.

    • Export quotas from the divestment of these fields will be transferred to the Leviathan field, but only once the Tanin and Karish fields are connected to the mainland.

  • The gas framework will allow for new exploration once passed, with Minister Yuval Steinitz expecting to offer new exploration licenses.

  • The gas framework will progress work on the Tamar expansion project, which we forecast to increase production from mid-2018, and support progress on the Leviathan field.

  • We have revised down our gas forecast given the revised development plan for the first phase of the Leviathan project. We now calculate phase 1 will produce up to 12bcm from 2020, phase 2 is not yet forecast, but would add a further 9bcm.

  • Low oil prices have supported strong refining margins at Israel's two refineries over 2015 and increased refined products production.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Israel 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Upstream Projects
13
Table: Key Upstream Projects In Israel
13
Upstream Production - Oil
15
Latest Updates
15
Structural Trends
15
Table: Oil Production (Israel 2014-2019)
17
Table: Oil Production (Israel 2020-2025)
17
Upstream Production - Gas
18
Latest Updates
18
Structural Trends
18
Table: Tamar Project Gas Sales Agreements
21
Table: Letters Of Intent To Supply Leviathan Gas
22
Table: Gas Production (Israel 2014-2019)
22
Table: Gas Production (Israel 2020-2025)
23
Refining
24
Latest Updates
24
Structural Trends
24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Israel 2014-2019)
26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Israel 2020-2025)
26
Refined Fuel Consumption
27
Latest Updates
27
Structural Trends
27
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Israel 2014-2019)
29
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Israel 2020-2025)
29
Gas Consumption
30
Latest Updates
30
Structural Trends
30
Table: Gas Consumption (Israel 2014-2019)
32
Table: Gas Consumption (Israel 2020-2025)
32
Trade - Oil
33
Latest Updates
33
Structural Trends
33
Crude Oil Trade Outlook
33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Israel 2014-2019)
34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Israel 2020-2025)
35
Refined Fuels Trade Outlook
35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Israel 2014-2019)
36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Israel 2020-2025)
36
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
37
Latest Updates
37
Structural Trends
37
Table: Leviathan Export Possibilities
39
Table: Gas Net Exports (Israel 2014-2019)
40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Israel 2020-2025)
40
Industry Risk Reward Index
41
Middle East - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
41
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
41
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment
42
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
42
Downstream: Limited Opportunities
44
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
44
Israel - Risk/Reward Index
47
Market Overview
49
Israel Energy Market Overview
49
Regulatory Structure
49
Fiscal Regime
49
Table: Key Petroleum Taxes
49
Licensing Regime
50
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
50
Oil Refineries
50
Table: Israel - Refineries
51
Oil Pipelines
51
Table: 750km Of Pipelines
51
Oil Terminals
52
Table: 3
52
Gas Storage
52
Gas Pipelines
53
Competitive Landscape
54
Table: Key Players - Israeli Oil And Gas Sector
55
Table: Key Downstream Players
56
Company Profile
57
Noble Energy
57
Table: Letters Of Intent To Purchase Leviathan Gas
58
Table: Noble Dominates Israeli Offshore
59
Other Summaries
61
Regional Overview
69
Middle East Oil And Gas Regional Overview
69
Oil Production: Weak Prices Have Limited Impact On Growth
69
Oil Consumption: Gradual Subsidy Reform To Temper Demand Growth
71
Refining Capacity: 2mn b/d Of New Capacity By 2020
73
Gas Production: Low Oil Prices Hinder Gas Progress
74
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand
76
Table: Middle East - Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade (2013-2024)
77
Glossary
79
Table: Glossary Of Terms
79
Methodology
81
Industry Forecast Methodology
81
Source
83
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
83
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
85
Table: Weighting
86

The Israel Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Israel including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Israel Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Israeli oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Israel to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Israeli oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Israeli oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Israel.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.