BMI View: Prime Minister Benjamin Netenyahu is expected to pass the natural gas framework in December 2015, stabili sing the uncertainty in Israel's offshore regulatory and spurring new exploration . Small- scale gas exports to Jordan will begin from 2017.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||0.5||0.5||1.5||1.5||1.5||1.5||1.7|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||6.4||7.6||8.6||9.9||10.2||12.2||14.2|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||7.0||7.6||8.7||9.8||10.0||10.1||11.3|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||276.0||280.7||284.6||284.0||280.0||271.6||267.6|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||238.2||234.8||238.8||237.4||231.7||227.4||220.6|
We highlight the following trends and developments in Israel's oil and gas sector:
Prime Minister Benjamin Netenyahu is due to approve the gas framework in December forcing the following restructuring of the Israeli offshore:
Delek Group is to sell its entire 31% stake in the Tamar field within six years.
Noble Energy is to reduce its stake in the Tamar field within six years from 36% to 25%, but will remain operator.
Both Noble and Delek will be required to sell their entire holdings in the Karish and Tanin fields within 14 months.
Export quotas from the divestment of these fields will be transferred to the Leviathan field, but only once the Tanin and Karish fields are connected to the mainland.
The gas framework will allow for new exploration in 2016, with Minister Yuval Steinitz expecting to offer new exploration licenses.
The gas framework will progress work on the Tamar expansion project, which we forecast to increase production from mid-2018.
We have put back our forecast for first gas from the Leviathan project until 2020 and see growing risks to the development from a lack of large volume export contracts.
Exports from Leviathan to the Idku LNG terminal in Egypt are looking less likely following the farm-in of BG group to the Aphrodite field in Cyprus.
The Leviathan partners are reportedly in negotiation with Egypt's Dolphinus for 4bcm supply over 10-15 years - though larger gas contracts will be needed to support the development.
Gas exports to Arab Potash and Jordan Bromine are due to begin in 2017.
Low oil prices have supported strong refining margins at Israel's two refineries over 2015 and increased refined products production.
The Israel Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Israel including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
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