BMI View: A lasting agreement and successful implementation of Israel's new offshore gas framework is crucial for the development of the country's prospective gas industry over the coming decade. While recent approval of the revised gas plan is a positive step, we remain cautious with our forecasts due to strong opposition to the contentious stab ilisation clause within the country.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, EIA|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||0.5||1.5||1.5||1.5||1.5||1.7||2.4|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||291.0||292.7||290.5||286.5||277.9||273.7||274.3|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||232.9||233.9||232.5||227.0||222.7||216.0||213.9|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||7.5||8.6||9.1||9.6||12.3||14.4||20.3|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||7.6||8.7||9.1||9.6||10.4||11.3||11.7|
Latest Updates and Key Forecasts
On 22 May 2016, Israel's government approved the revised stabilisation clause in the country's offshore gas plan, after it had been rejected by the Supreme Court in March 2016. While this is a positive step, we remain cautious with our forecasts due to strong opposition to this deal within the country.
In late May 2016, the partners at Israel's Leviathan gas field signed an agreement to supply natural gas from the Leviathan field to a power facility controlled by IPM Be'er in central Israel. The USD3bn agreement sees gas deliveries amounting to 13bcm during a period of 18 years.
In May 2016, local oil and gas company Israel Opportunity reported that its Hatrurim license could contain between 7-11mn bbl of oil.
Noble Energy is reportedly negotiating the sale of 11% stake in the Tamar gas field to three Israeli companies - Clal Insurance, Harel Insurance and Finance and Menora Mivtachim. Currently, Noble Energy holds 36% interest in the field. The estimated value of the deal - approximately USD1.0bn.
We forecast Israel's current refining capacity to remain stable at 297,000b/d until 2025. Gradually rising oil prices and increasing regional competition in the refining sector will push Israel's refined products output slightly lower during our forecast period. Production is set to decline from an estimated 292,660b/d in 2015 to around 277,000b/d in 2025.
We forecast Israel's gas consumption to increase by more than 40% over the coming decade, rising from 8.7bcm in 2015 to 12.3bcm in 2025. An upside to our forecasts comes from the increased usage of gas in transportation and power sectors.
We believe that Israel will start exporting natural gas from Tamar field from 2018 onward. We expect that the additional production from Leviathan field will boost the country's gas exports to a peak of 14.2bcm in 2021. However, this remains dependent on whether Leviathan partners reach a Final Investment Decision on the development of the field.
The Israel Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Israel including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Israel Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Israeli oil and gas industry.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
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A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
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Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
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