Israel Petrochemicals Report

Published 08 May 2015

  • 68 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Israel Petrochemicals Report

BMI View: While the petrochemicals sector performed slightly better in 2014 than estimated in the previous quarter, rubber, plastics and chemicals output saw plenty of downside in the final months of the year and going into 2015. However, stronger domestic economic performance coupled with low feedstock costs should support output growth over the short-term, according to BMI 's latest Israel Petrochemicals Report.

In 2014, Israeli rubber and plastic production grew just 0.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) while petroleum and chemical products output declined 1.1% over the period. With the economy due to post solid growth over the next two years and industry likely to see above-trend growth, prospects look good for the industry. Much will depend on the price of naphtha with Israeli production managing to hold up margins in spite of sluggish domestic sales.

Controversy over pollution from Israel Chemicals Ltd's (ICL) facilities in Haifa threatened to shutter production in April with the city's mayor withdrawing its business licences and blockading its petrochemicals plants. However, a court order against led to the lifting of the ban. BMI does not envisage any further complications in production over the coming months.

Key BMI Forecasts

  • Israeli petrochemicals competitiveness will continue to be determined by naphtha and the risks are to the upside in the country's relatively small, naphtha-fed petrochemicals industry, this will be crucial to ongoing profitability.

  • Israel's petrochemicals capacities are likely to remain unchanged over the next five years with 450,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) ethylene, 345,000tpa propylene, 125,000tpa benzene, 230,000tpa xylenes, 165,000tpa polyethylene (PE), 450,000tpa polypropylene (PP), 160,000tpa polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and 60,000tpa of methanol.

  • In BMI's MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (RRIs) matrix, Israel remains in sixth place and its score stays at 56.3 points this quarter, following a fall in the previous quarter...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Operational Risk
11
Industry Forecast
13
Table: Israel's Petrochemicals Sector, 2011-2019 ('000 tpa, unless otherwise stated)
16
Macroeconomic Forecasts
17
Economic Analysis
17
Expenditure Breakdown
18
Table: Economic Activity (Israel 2010-2019)
22
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
23
MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
23
Table: MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index - Q3 2015
27
Israel Risk/Reward Index
27
Market Overview
29
Industry Trends And Developments
31
Upstream
32
Company Profile
35
Oil Refineries Ltd (ORL)
35
Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL)
39
Regional Overview
42
Middle East And Africa Overview
42
Tightening Ethane Supplies
43
Diversification The Long-Term Focus
44
Africa Falls Behind
45
Global Industry Overview
47
Project Cancellation: the Impact of US Expansion and Low Oil Prices
47
Outlook for 2015: Falling prices
49
Medium-term outlook
50
China versus the US: feedstock wars
51
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
55
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
55
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
56
Demographic Forecast
58
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Israel 1990-2025)
59
Table: Key Population Ratios (Israel 1990-2025)
60
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Israel 1990-2025)
60
Table: Population By Age Group (Israel 1990-2025)
61
Table: Population By Age Group % (Israel 1990-2025)
62
Glossary
63
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
63
Methodology
64
Industry Forecast Methodology
64
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
66
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
67
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
68

The Israel Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Israel Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Israeli petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Israeli petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Israeli petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Israel.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering the petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the petrochemicals sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Energy: Oil production (‘000 b/d), oil consumption (‘000 b/d), net oil exports (‘000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (‘000 b/d).
  • Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), ethylene production (‘000 tpa), ethylene consumption (‘000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (‘000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (‘000 tpa).
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (USD/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic: Nominal GDP (USDbn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (USD), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against USD).

BMI’s Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (both corporate and financial) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global & Regional Market Overview

Analysis of the key trends driving the global industry, including worldwide output/capacity and demand analysis across ethylene, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate and polypropylene. The regional analysis looks at the implications of local and global trends on specific company activity.

Sub-sectors covered by the Petrochemicals Reports include:

Oil & Gas, Oil Refining, Olefins (ethylene, propylene), Polyolefins (polyethylene, polypropylene), Polyvinyl Chloride, Polystyrene

Please note – not all country Reports cover all sub-sectors – see website for details.

Sources

The Petrochemicals Market Reports are based on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (ACC, APLA, Cefi c, ICCA, ICMA), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offi ces, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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