Italy Agribusiness Report

Published 26 May 2015

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Italy Agribusiness Report

BMI View: Our outlook for the Italian agribusiness sector has turned more positive, as we believe the dairy and livestock industries will record fairly robust growth through to 2018 /1 9 on the back of the removal of the EU's milk production quota in 2015, and the opportunity for Italy to develop its value-added exports We expect corn production to post the strongest growth out of the grains complex , largely due to base effects, as we believe wheat output will remain broadly flat due to little opportunity for area or yield growth.

Key Forecasts

  • Wheat production growth to 2018/19: 9.8% to 7.7mn tonnes. We expect wheat production in Italy to remain broadly flat on current levels out to 2018/19, as there is little potential for growth in yields or the area harvested of grains in the country, especially in a context of lower average grain prices relative to the past few years

  • Cheese consumption growth to 2019: 20.1% to 1.9mn tonnes. Per capita cheese consumption, at 26.8kg in 2015, is on a par with France and Germany and higher than in northern European countries such as Sweden and the UK. Still, we see room for additional growth over the coming years.

  • Poultry production growth to 2018/19: 10.9% to 1.5mn tonnes. Poultry is a relatively cheap meat; as such, we expect continued strong demand amid the tough economic climate.

  • 2015 real GDP growth: 0.4% year-on-year (y-o-y), compared with an estimated contraction of 0.4% in 2014.

  • 2015 consumer price index: 0.6% average, slightly higher than 0.3% in 2014.

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: 2.8% y-o-y increase to USD34.7bn in 2014/15, forecast to grow on average 2.0% annually between 2014/15 and 2018/19.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)

Industry Developments

The outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Italy in August 2014 led to a ban in January 2015 on live poultry and egg imports into Russia, a major buyer of Italian poultry. We believe...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Operational Risk
11
Industry Forecast
12
Grains Outlook
12
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Italy 2014-2019)
13
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Italy 2014-2019)
13
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Italy 2014-2019)
14
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Italy 2009-2014)
17
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Italy 2009-2014)
17
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Italy 2009-2014)
18
Dairy Outlook
19
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Italy 2014-2019)
20
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Italy 2014-2019)
20
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Italy 2014-2019)
20
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Italy 2009-2014)
23
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Italy 2009-2014)
23
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Italy 2009-2014)
24
Livestock Outlook
25
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Italy 2014-2019)
26
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Italy 2014-2019)
26
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Italy 2014-2019)
26
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Italy 2009-2014)
31
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Italy 2009-2014)
31
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Italy 2009-2014)
31
Featured Analysis
33
European Agriculture: The Future Of The CAP
33
Table: EU - Agricultural Self-Sufficiency Ratios
41
Table: Select Commodities - European Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes)
45
Commodities Price Analysis
46
Monthly Softs Strategy
46
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & Bmi Forecasts
55
Monthly Grains Strategy
56
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
63
Upstream Analysis
64
Europe GM Outlook
64
Europe Machinery Outlook
70
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates)
72
Italy Agribusiness Report Q3 2015
Italy Agribusiness Report Q3 2015
- Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
- Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Europe Fertiliser Outlook
75
Downstream Analysis
81
Food
81
Food Consumption
81
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Italy 2012-2019)
82
Confectionery
82
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Italy 2012-2019)
83
Canned/Prepared Food
84
Frozen Fruit And Vegetables
84
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Italy 2014-2019)
84
Snack Foods
85
Table: Sweet Biscuits Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Italy 2014-2019)
85
Table: Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (Italy 2014-2019)
86
Pasta
86
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Italy 2014-2019)
87
Meat, Fish And Dairy
87
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (Italy 2014-2019)
88
Oils & Fats
88
Drink
89
Soft Drinks
89
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Italy 2014-2019)
90
Hot Drinks
91
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Italy 2014-2019)
92
Alcoholic Drinks
93
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Italy 2014-2019)
94
Mass Grocery Retail
95
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Italy 2014-2019)
96
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Format Type, %
96
Regional Overview
97
Competitive Landscape
104
Table: Main Companies In Italy's Agribusiness Sector
104
Demographic Forecast
105
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Italy 1990-2025)
106
Table: Key Population Ratios (Italy 1990-2025)
106
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Italy 1990-2025)
107
Table: Population By Age Group (Italy 1990-2025)
107
Table: Population By Age Group % (Italy 1990-2025)
108
Methodology
110
Industry Forecast Methodology
110
Sector-Specific Methodology
111

The Italy Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Italy Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc