Italy Agribusiness Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the agribusiness industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, Supply & Demand Forecasts, Commodity Price Analysis and Company Profiles.

Why you should buy this report

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  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Italy Agribusiness Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: We hold a mixed outlook for the Italian agribusiness industry . We still believe that cheese, milk, poultry and pork will record stable growth over the course of our current forecast period to 2020. The removal of EU milk quota s in 2015 and the opportunity for Italy to develop its value-added exports will be positive. We do not expect much from grain production this year due to w eather volatility; wheat output will remain broadly flat due to little opportunity for growth in planted area or yields.

Key Forecasts

  • Poultry production will record growth of 1.3% in 2015/16 to reach 1.3mn tonnes.

  • Pork production will reach an estimated 1.7mn tonnes in 2015/16, representing an increase of 1.2% on 2014/15.

  • Liquid milk consumption will reach 2.3mn tonnes in 2016, growing 4.0% from the previous year.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2012-2020)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: FAO, BMI

Latest Updates & Structural Trends

The outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in August 2014 led to a ban on live poultry and egg imports into Russia from Italy in January 2015. Russia was a major buyer of Italian poultry, but we believe that this should not affect production significantly as the ban, which includes poultry upkeep and slaughter equipment, will be lifted upon clearance of the virus. At the time of writing, the virus has been relatively confined.

The 2015 heat wave in Europe, which threatened to reduce EU-28 corn crop yields by up to 19%, could have a devastating effect on Italy's corn production harvest for the year. We are cautious about this current development as neighbouring France is already bracing itself for a severely reduced corn harvest this year.

The trade relations ban with Russia is consistently challenging European Union exports and we will continue to monitor the situation as it unfolds. A prolonged Russian ban will ensure reduced exports for premium goods from Italy such as ham and cheese, thus pressuring vendors in Italy and the European Union at large.

In April 2016, it was announced that the Russian Agricultural Ministry had offered 29 projects about to start in nine Russian regions to Italian producers. Russia wants to begin various cheese, poultry and livestock feed projects locally in the country and is allowing Italian investors to localise production. Given the EU-Russia trade embargo, the investment provides Italy an opportunity to export investment and expertise rather than banned goods. The efforts will allow Italian agricultural producers, who have lost significant amounts of revenue due to trade sanctions, to begin agricultural business with Russia once again.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Industry Forecast
11
Grains Outlook
11
Table: Italy - Grains Production & Consumption Outlook
11
Table: Risks To Outlook
12
Table: Grains Production & Consumption (Italy, 2012-2020)
14
Livestock Outlook
15
Table: Italy - Livestock Production & Consumption Outlook
16
Table: Risks To Outlook
17
Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (Italy 2012-2020)
18
Dairy Outlook
19
Table: Italy Dairy Consumption & Production Outlook
19
Table: Risks To Outlook
20
Table: Dairy Production & Consumption (Italy 2013-2020)
21
Commodities Price Analysis
22
Commodities Price Forecasts
22
Table: SELECT COMMODITIES - PERFORMANCE AND BMI FORECASTS
22
Upstream Analysis
24
Europe Machinery Outlook
24
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (company-based estimates)
28
Europe GM Outlook
30
Europe Fertiliser Outlook
36
Downstream Analysis
43
Food
43
Latest Updates
43
Structural Trends
44
Table: Food Sales (Italy 2013-2020)
45
Regional Overview
47
Europe Regional Overview
47
Competitive Landscape
52
Table: Main Companies In Italy's Agribusiness Sector
52
Demographic Forecast
53
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Italy 1990-2025)
54
Table: Key Population Ratios (Italy 1990-2025)
54
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Italy 1990-2025)
55
Table: Population By Age Group (Italy 1990-2025)
55
Table: Population By Age Group % (Italy 1990-2025)
56
Methodology
58
Industry Forecast Methodology
58
Sector-Specific Methodology
59

The Italy Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Italy Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.