Italy Agribusiness Report

Published 17 February 2015

  • 115 pages
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$1,295.00
Italy Agribusiness Report

BMI View: Our outlook for the Italian agribusiness sector has turned more positive, as we believe the dairy and livestock industries will record fairly robust growth through to 2018 /1 9 on the back of the removal of the EU's milk production quota in 2015, and the opportunity for Italy to develop its value-added exports We expect corn production to post the strongest growth out of the grains complex , largely due to base effects, as we believe wheat output will remain broadly flat due to little opportunity for area or yield growth.

Key Forecasts

  • Wheat production growth to 2018/19: 9.8% to 7.7mn tonnes. We expect wheat production in Italy to remain broadly flat on current levels out to 2018/19, as there is little potential for growth in yields or the area harvested of grains in the country, especially in a context of lower average grain prices relative to the past few years

  • Cheese consumption growth to 2019: 20.1% to 1.9mn tonnes. Per capita cheese consumption, at 26.8kg in 2015, is on a par with France and Germany and higher than in northern European countries such as Sweden and the UK. Still, we see room for additional growth over the coming years.

  • Poultry production growth to 201 8 /1 9 : 1 0 .9% to 1.5mn tonnes. Poultry is a relatively cheap meat; as such, we expect continued strong demand amid the tough economic climate.

  • 201 5 real GDP growth: 0.4% year-on-year (y-o-y), compared with an estimated contraction of 0.4% in 2014.

  • 201 5 consumer price index: 0.6% average, slightly higher than 0.3% in 2014.

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: 2.8% y-o-y increase to USD34.7bn in 2014/15, forecast to grow on average 2.0% annually between 2014/15 and 2018/19.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)

Industry Developments

The outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Italy in August 2014 led to a ban in January 2015 on live poultry and egg imports into Russia, a major buyer of Italian poultry. We...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT Analysis
7
Agribusiness
7
Business Environment
8
Industry Forecast
9
Grains Outlook
9
Table: Italy Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
10
Table: Italy Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
10
Table: Italy Barley Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
10
Table: Italy Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
19
Table: Italy Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
19
Table: Italy Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
19
Rice Outlook
20
Table: Italy Rice Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
21
Table: Italy Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
21
Dairy Outlook
22
Table: Italy Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
23
Table: Italy Butter Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
23
Table: Italy Cheese Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
23
Table: Italy Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
25
Table: Italy Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
26
Table: Italy Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
26
Livestock Outlook
26
Table: Italy Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
28
Table: Italy Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
28
Table: Italy Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
28
Table: New Payment Schemes Under CAP Reforms
29
Table: Changes To Agricultural Supports Post-WTO Accession
32
Table: Italy Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
38
Table: Italy Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
38
Table: Italy Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
38
Commodities Price Analysis
39
Monthly Softs Strategy
39
Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts
50
Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy
50
Monthly Grains Strategy
51
Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts
59
Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy
60
Upstream Analysis
61
Europe GM Outlook
61
Europe Fertiliser Outlook
65
Europe Machinery Outlook
70
Downstream Analysis
74
Food
74
Food Consumption
74
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
74
Confectionery
74
Table: Confectionery Value And Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
75
Canned/Prepared Food
75
Table: Canned Food Value And Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
76
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
76
Table: Snack Foods Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
77
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
80
Meat, Fish And Oils & Fats
81
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
81
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
83
Table: Oils & Fats Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
84
Drink
87
Soft Drinks
87
Table: Soft Drink Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
87
Alcoholic Drinks
88
Table: Alcoholic Drink Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
89
Mass Grocery Retail
89
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2010-2017
90
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Format Type
90
Trade
91
Table: Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
91
Competitive Landscape
92
Table: Main Agribusiness Companies
92
Demographic Forecast
93
Table: Italy's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
94
Table: Italy's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
95
Table: Italy's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
96
Table: Italy's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
96
Methodology
97
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
97

The Italy Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Italy Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc