BMI View: We have made modest revisions to our Q1 2016 Italian agribusiness report and now hold a mixed outlook. We believe that the cheese, milk, poultry and pork industries will record stable growth though to 2018/19. The removal of the EU's milk production quota in 2015 and the opportunity for Italy to develop its value-added exports will be positives. We expect corn production to post the strongest growth out of the grains complex, largely due to base effects, as we believe wheat output will remain broadly flat due to little opportunity for area or yield growth.
Poultry production will record growth of 1.3% in 2015/16 to reach 1.29mn tonnes.
Pork production will reach an estimated 1.70mn tonnes.
Liquid milk consumption will reach 2.32mn tonnes in 2015/16, with a growth rate of 4.0%.
|Agribusiness Market Value|
|BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: FAO, BMI|
The outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Italy in August 2014 led to a ban on live poultry and egg imports into Russia in January 2015. Russia was a major buyer of Italian poultry, but we believe that this should not affect production significantly as the ban, which includes poultry upkeep and slaughter equipment, will be lifted upon clearance of the virus. At the time of writing, the virus has been relatively confined.
The 2015 heat wave in Europe that is threatening to reduce EU-28 corn crop yields by up to 19% could have a devastating effect on Italy's corn production harvest for the year. We are cautious about this current development as neighbouring France is already bracing itself for a severely reduced corn harvest this year.
The Italy Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Italy Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
- Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.