Italy Agribusiness Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the agribusiness industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, Supply & Demand Forecasts, Commodity Price Analysis and Company Profiles.

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  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Italy Agribusiness Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: We have made modest revisions to our Q1 2016 Italian agribusiness report and now hold a mixed outlook. We believe that the cheese, milk, poultry and pork industries will record stable growth though to 2018/19. The removal of the EU's milk production quota in 2015 and the opportunity for Italy to develop its value-added exports will be positives. We expect corn production to post the strongest growth out of the grains complex, largely due to base effects, as we believe wheat output will remain broadly flat due to little opportunity for area or yield growth.

Key Forecasts

  • Poultry production will record growth of 1.3% in 2015/16 to reach 1.29mn tonnes.

  • Pork production will reach an estimated 1.70mn tonnes.

  • Liquid milk consumption will reach 2.32mn tonnes in 2015/16, with a growth rate of 4.0%.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: FAO, BMI

Industry Developments

The outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Italy in August 2014 led to a ban on live poultry and egg imports into Russia in January 2015. Russia was a major buyer of Italian poultry, but we believe that this should not affect production significantly as the ban, which includes poultry upkeep and slaughter equipment, will be lifted upon clearance of the virus. At the time of writing, the virus has been relatively confined.

The 2015 heat wave in Europe that is threatening to reduce EU-28 corn crop yields by up to 19% could have a devastating effect on Italy's corn production harvest for the year. We are cautious about this current development as neighbouring France is already bracing itself for a severely reduced corn harvest this year.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
13
Grains Outlook
13
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Italy 2014-2019)
14
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Italy 2014-2019)
14
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Italy 2014-2019)
14
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Italy 2009-2014)
18
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Italy 2009-2014)
18
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Italy 2009-2014)
18
Dairy Outlook
20
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Italy 2014-2019)
21
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Italy 2014-2019)
21
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Italy 2014-2019)
21
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Italy 2009-2014)
24
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Italy 2009-2014)
24
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Italy 2009-2014)
25
Livestock Outlook
26
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Italy 2014-2019)
27
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Italy 2014-2019)
27
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Italy 2014-2019)
27
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Italy 2009-2014)
32
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Italy 2009-2014)
32
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Italy 2009-2014)
32
Featured Analysis
34
European Agriculture: The Future Of The CAP
34
Table: EU - Agricultural Self-Sufficiency Ratios
42
Table: Select Commodities - European Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes)
46
Commodities Price Analysis
47
Monthly Grains Update
47
Monthly Softs Update
51
Table: India - Monsoon Rainfall, Irrigation And Production In The Main Agricultural States
55
Upstream Analysis
56
Europe GM Outlook
56
Europe Machinery Outlook
62
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates)
64
Europe Fertiliser Outlook
67
Downstream Analysis
73
Mass Grocery Retail
73
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Italy 2014-2019)
74
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Format Type, %
75
Drink
76
Soft Drinks
76
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Italy 2014-2019)
77
Hot Drinks
78
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Italy 2014-2019)
79
Alcoholic Drinks
80
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Italy 2014-2019)
81
Food
82
Food Consumption
82
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Italy 2012-2019)
83
Confectionery
83
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Italy 2012-2019)
84
Canned/Prepared Food
85
Frozen Fruit And Vegetables
85
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Italy 2014-2019)
85
Snack Foods
86
Table: Sweet Biscuits Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Italy 2014-2019)
86
Table: Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (Italy 2014-2019)
87
Pasta
87
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Italy 2014-2019)
88
Meat, Fish And Dairy
88
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (Italy 2014-2019)
89
Oils & Fats
89
Regional Overview
90
Competitive Landscape
97
Table: Main Companies In Italy's Agribusiness Sector
97
Demographic Forecast
98
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Italy 1990-2025)
99
Table: Key Population Ratios (Italy 1990-2025)
99
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Italy 1990-2025)
100
Table: Population By Age Group (Italy 1990-2025)
100
Table: Population By Age Group % (Italy 1990-2025)
101
Methodology
103
Industry Forecast Methodology
103
Sector-Specific Methodology
104

The Italy Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Italy Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.