BMI View: We extend our mixed outlook for the Italian agribusiness industry into our Q4 2016 report update . We still believe that cheese, milk, poultry and pork will record stable growth over the course of our current forecast period to 2020. The removal of EU milk quota s in 2015 and the opportunity for Italy to develop its value-added exports will be positive. We do not expect much from grain production this year due to w eather volatility; wheat output will remain broadly flat due to little opportunity for growth in planted area or yields.
Poultry production will record growth of 1.3% in 2015/16 to reach 1.3mn tonnes.
Pork production will reach an estimated 1.7mn tonnes in 2015/16, representing an increase of 1.2% on 2014/15.
Liquid milk consumption will reach 2.3mn tonnes in 2016, growing 4.0% from the previous year.
|Agribusiness Market Value|
|BMI Market Value By Commodity (2012-2020)|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: FAO, BMI|
Latest Updates & Structural Trends
The outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in August 2014 led to a ban on live poultry and egg imports into Russia from Italy in January 2015. Russia was a major buyer of Italian poultry, but we believe that this should not affect production significantly as the ban, which includes poultry upkeep and slaughter equipment, will be lifted upon clearance of the virus. At the time of writing, the virus has been relatively confined.
The 2015 heat wave in Europe, which threatened to reduce EU-28 corn crop yields by up to 19%, could have a devastating effect on Italy's corn production harvest for the year. We are cautious about this current development as neighbouring France is already bracing itself for a severely reduced corn harvest this year.
The trade relations ban with Russia is consistently challenging European Union exports and we will continue to monitor the situation as it unfolds. A prolonged Russian ban will ensure reduced exports for premium goods from Italy such as ham and cheese, thus pressuring vendors in Italy and the European Union at large.
In April 2016, it was announced that the Russian Agricultural Ministry had offered 29 projects about to start in nine Russian regions to Italian producers. Russia wants to begin various cheese, poultry and livestock feed projects locally in the country and is allowing Italian investors to localise production. Given the EU-Russia trade embargo, the investment provides Italy an opportunity to export investment and expertise rather than banned goods. The efforts will allow Italian agricultural producers, who have lost significant amounts of revenue due to trade sanctions, to begin agricultural business with Russia once again.
The Italy Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Italy Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
- Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.