Italy Autos Report

Published 27 February 2015

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Italy Autos Report

Vehicle sales in Italy grew 5.0% in 2014 to 1,491,965 units. This recovery in sales emerged alongside a marginally brighter macroeconomic environment for Italy in H114 compared to the recessionary 2013 period. This growth was spurred by a 4.2% expansion in passenger car sales, 16.4% growth in light commercial vehicles (LCVs) while flat sales in the heavy truck segment and a 16.7% fall in bus and coach purchases tempered vehicle sales as a whole.

Despite our worsened 2015 outlook for real GDP and private consumption growth in Italy, we expect sales growth to come to all market segments as low base effects and pent-up demand take hold. We highlight the LCV segment as the industry outperformer over the year, forecasting 9.0% growth, followed by the passenger car market, which we expect to grow 4.5%. On the whole, we forecast a 4.8% expansion in vehicle sales over the year.

We forecast a 4.5% expansion in car sales owing to the country's ageing vehicle fleet forcing consumers to purchase new replacement cars as well as mild improvements in consumer sentiment filtering through to the autos sector. However, though consumer sentiment had shown strong signs of recovery toward the end of H114, our Country Risk team stresses that consumer spending is still likely to remain stagnant over the remainder of our forecast period to 2019. With private consumption to grow at an average of just 0.6% a year, we stress that sales will still remain well below historic highs.

In 2014, Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) sales in Italy increased 16.4% to 117,709 units. This strong growth was similar to light commercial growth across other European markets such as Spain, Sweden, Denmark and the UK when LCV sales grew by 32.0%, 14.7%, 13.6%, and 10.6%, respectively. We believe LCV growth has increased alongside the growth in online retailing which relies on van and light vehicle courier fleets to carry out home deliveries.

Given that our Telecoms team remains bullish on future growth of online...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Sales, Production And Trade
13
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2012-2018)
13
Sales
13
Production
14
Trade
15
Table: Vehicle Exports By Category
15
Passenger Vehicles
16
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2012-2018)
16
Table: Italy Passenger Car Sales By Brand
17
Table: Passenger Car Sales By Engine Type
19
Table: Average Age Of Cars On The Road
19
Production
20
Table: Passenger Car Production By Brand
20
Table: Passenger Car Exports By Brand
21
Industry News
21
Table: Fiat Global Production Distribution
23
Commercial Vehicles
24
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2012-2018)
24
Industry News
25
Motorcycles
27
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2012-2018)
27
Suppliers
30
Macroeconomic Forecast
31
Economic Analysis
31
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Italy 2011-2018)
36
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Table: Europe Autos Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Company Profile
42
Porsche
42
Regional Overview
45
Europe Overview
45
Global Industry Overview
47
Table: Passenger Car Sales May 2014 (CBUs)
47
Outperformers Boost European Outlook
47
Trucks Give North America A Lift
48
India Brings Relief To BRICs
50
Demographic Forecast
52
Table: Italy's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
53
Table: Italy's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
54
Table: Italy's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
55
Table: Italy's Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020
55
Methodology
56
Industry Forecasts
56
Sector-Specific Methodology
57
Sources
57
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
58
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
59

The Italy Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Italy Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Italy.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Italy to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Italian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Italian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Italy.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc