As our 2015 and 2016 outlooks for real GDP and private consumption growth in Italy start to improve, we expect sales growth to come to all vehicle segments. We forecast total vehicle sales growth to be 10.1% in 2015. Low base effects, aggressive marketing campaigns by automakers and the growing need for fleet replacement of out-dated vehicles will all provide the strongest supports to vehicle sales volumes over the year.
We identify the passenger car segment as the industry's outperformer in 2015 and forecast 10.2%. The segment will outperform the commercial vehicle (CV) market - which we forecast to grow 8.9% - owing to the rise in consumer spending outpaces the slow recovery in fixed investment in the country. Factors specific to the passenger car sector segment will also spur the expansion of the segment. These being (a) the growing need to replace out-dated cars and (b) aggressive discounting campaigns by automakers.
However, CV sales will continue to expand with the help of government-subsidised loans to enterprises seeking to expand their capital expenditure on CVs and other capital goods, this will provide the main boost to heavy truck sales which we forecast to grow 6.3%. The sector will also gain from the growing demand for Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs) thanks to the expansion of online retailing which relies heavily on van deliveries for its logistics. We forecast LCV sales to expand 9.0% in 2015.
On the production side, BMI believes that Italy's labour market still remains relatively uncompetitive and rigid, and production will continue to be uncompetitive over our five-year forecast period to 2019. However, given improving prospects in the European passenger car and LCV segments we still expect to see a 4.6% increase in vehicle output in Italy. However, we stress that our forecast for Italian passenger car production remains subdued and we continue to forecast 1.5% growth in Italian production in 2015 as Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles pushes forward with...
The Italy Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's Italy Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Italy.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Italy to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Italian automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Italian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Italy.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.