BMI View: Italy's oil and gas sector will continue suffering from the gradual depletion of its hydrocarbon reserves as well as the rapid downsizing of the country's ailing refining sector. While an active exploration scene and a gradually improving regulatory environment are positive signs, we believe these improvements will take some years to garner more substantial industry changes.
Headline Forecasts (Italy 2013-2019)
| || 2013 || 2014e || 2015f || 2016f || 2017f || 2018f || 2019f |
| e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI |
| Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d || 112.8 || 115.0 || 114.2 || 112.4 || 109.6 || 117.3 || 145.6 |
| Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d || 1,742.6 || 1,568.4 || 1,615.4 || 1,518.5 || 1,457.8 || 1,457.8 || 1,459.2 |
| Dry natural gas production, bcm || 8.4 || 8.1 || 7.9 || 7.6 || 7.4 || 7.2 || 7.0 |
| Dry natural gas consumption, bcm || 70.1 || 70.4 || 71.1 || 71.8 || 72.6 || 73.4 || 74.1 |
The main developments in Italy's oil and gas sector:
In April 2015, Sound Oil received environmental approval from the government of Italy's Veneto region to start production from its Nervesa gas field in northern Italy. The Italian Ministry of Economic Development could award the Nervesa production concession shortly, after approval from the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA).
In March 2015, Royal Dutch Shell's wholly owned subsidiary Shell Itali a E&P farmed-in an 80% interest and operatorship of the Cascina Alberto permit onshore north west Italy from AIM-listed Northern Petroleum. Shell will pay USD850,000 in cash on completion of the transaction. Shell will continue with the North Petroleum exploration programme, which includes the acquisition of any new seismic data until the seismic costs reach USD4mn and exploration of the well until costs reach USD50mn.
According to reports in February 2015, Italy's Eni registered a 16% fall in net profit to USD4.2bn in 2014, although production...
The Italy Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Italy including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Italy Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Italian oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Italy to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Italian oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Italian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Italy.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.