Italy Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Italy Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Italy's oil and gas sector will continue to suffer from a gradual depletion of its hydrocarbon reserves and the rapid downsizing of the country's ailing refining sector. While an active exploration scene and a gradually improving regulatory environment are positive signs, we believe these improvements will take some years to garner more substantial industry changes. This is particularly the case in the context of low oil and gas prices over the coming years.

Headline Forecasts (Italy 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
National Sources/BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 121.7 121.0 118.7 115.9 123.2 149.9 156.1
Refined products production, 000b/d 1,355.3 1,423.0 1,309.2 1,256.8 1,256.8 1,258.1 1,256.8
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 1,249.4 1,228.9 1,222.8 1,232.9 1,246.2 1,264.0 1,287.4
Dry natural gas production, bcm 7.2 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.0
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 61.9 66.2 67.2 67.9 69.7 71.1 72.3
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 46.50 57.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Key Forecasts

  • Italy's exploration has benefited from an accelerated licensing and drilling approval process on licences, which is part of the Italian government's energy plan in 2013. The National Energy Strategy is now starting to bear fruit with several exploration and production permits approved since its implementation. Drilling activity has accelerated as a result. Most recently, Sound Energy was granted drilling permission for its Badile prospect - due to be drilled in 2016 - highlighting that interest in exploration remains in spite of the low oil price environment.

  • The reintroduction by the 2016 Budget Law of the ban on exploration and production activity within 12 nautical miles of the Italian coast will stem some of the interest for offshore exploration. The lack of policy consistency also creates an uncertain regulatory environment for the industry. Nevertheless, the April 2016 referendum on banning renewals of offshore licenses failed to reach the necessary turnout, meaning existing production sites offshore within 12 miles of the coast will continue to produce until they reach depletion. However, new drilling concessions are no longer being handed out.

  • Italy's oil production is expected to receive a significant boost from the Tempa Rossa field, which is set to come online in late 2018. Nonetheless, this will not suffice to achieve the government's goal of doubling oil production by 2020. Rapidly declining reserves are expected to push oil output gradually lower in the post-2020 period.

  • A deteriorating downstream sector in Italy, as elsewhere in Europe, has seen large refining capacity and refined products production cuts over the past decade. Further cuts are to be expected, given continued capacity oversupply and weak demand growth.

  • Economic difficulties are expected to continue suppressing oil consumption in Italy, which we see gradually declining until the end of 2016, before stagnating or very slowly increasing until the end of our forecast period. Distillates consumption as a proportion of total refined products consumption will continue to make headway, as the share of gasoline consumption falls, due to the continued dieselisation of the vehicle fleet.

  • With limited domestic crude oil production, Italy will remain a large net importer of crude oil. However, net import requirements have fallen substantially and will continue to fall due to large cuts in refining capacity. On the other hand, the refining capacity cuts will see continued decline in net refined products exports, which should fall to near zero by the end of our forecast period.

  • Due to maturing fields and lack of new significant discoveries, Italy's gas production will continue on a downward slope throughout our forecast period, declining from an estimated 6.9bcm in 2015 to 5.1bcm in 2025. Small-scale developments will slow production decline to a yearly 3% decline rate over the forecast period.A weak, but positive, economic growth trajectory, in addition to increased use in the residential sectors should see gas consumption growth remain in positive territory over the remainder of the forecast period. Nevertheless, a subdued economic environment and the strong rise of renewable for power generation will prevent more substantial consumption growth over our forecast period.

  • We expect Italy to remain one of the largest importers of natural gas in Europe with import volumes rising from an estimated 55.8bcm in 2015 to 67.7bcm in 2025.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Italy 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Latest Updates
10
Structural Trends
10
Upstream Projects
16
Table: Upstream Projects
16
Upstream Production - Oil
18
Latest Updates
18
Structural Trends
18
Table: Oil Production (Italy 2014-2019)
20
Table: Oil Production (Italy 2020-2025)
20
Upstream Production - Gas
21
Latest Updates
21
Structural Trends
21
Table: Gas Production (Italy 2014-2019)
23
Table: Gas Production (Italy 2020-2025)
23
Refining
24
Latest Updates
24
Structural Trends
24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Italy 2014-2019)
26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Italy 2020-2025)
27
Refined Fuels Consumption
28
Latest Updates
28
Structural Trends
28
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Italy 2014-2019)
30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Italy 2020-2025)
30
Gas Consumption
31
Latest Updates
31
Structural Trends
31
Table: Gas Consumption (Italy 2020-2025)
33
Trade - Oil
34
Crude Oil
34
Latest Updates
34
Structural Trends
34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Italy 2014-2020)
36
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Italy 2020-2025)
36
Refined Products
36
Latest Updates
36
Structural Trends
36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Italy 2014-2019)
38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Italy 2020-2025)
38
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
39
Latest Updates
39
Structural Trends
39
Table: Gas Net Exports (Italy 2014-2019)
42
Table: Gas Net Exports (Italy 2020-2025)
42
Industry Risk Reward Index
44
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
44
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
44
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
45
Upstream: China Still The Target Market
45
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
47
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market
48
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
50
Italy - Risk/Reward Index
52
Upstream Index
52
Downstream Index
52
Market Overview
53
Italy Energy Market Overview
53
Regulatory Structure
53
Fiscal Regime
54
Table: Italy Oil And Gas Fiscal Regime
54
Licensing Regime
54
Table: Italy Licensing Regime
54
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
56
Oil Refineries
56
Table: Refineries In Italy
56
Service Stations
57
Oil Storage Facilities
57
Oil Terminals/Ports
58
LNG Terminals
58
Table: Italy - LNG Terminals
60
Gas Storage Facilities
61
Gas Pipelines
61
Competitive Landscape
65
Competitive Landscape Summary
65
Regional Overview
67
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
67
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices
67
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles
68
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing
69
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand Dependent
70
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
71
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies
72
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade
73
Glossary
75
Table: Glossary Of Terms
75
Methodology
77
Industry Forecast Methodology
77
Source
79
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
79
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
81
Table: Weighting
82

The Italy Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Italy including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Italy Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Italian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Italy to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Italian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Italian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Italy.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.