Italy Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Italy Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Italy's oil and gas sector will continue to suffer from a gradual depletion of its hydrocarbon reserves and the rapid downsizing of the country's ailing refining sector. While an active exploration scene and a gradually improving regulatory environment are positive signs, we believe these improvements will take some years to garner more substantial industry changes.

Headline Forecasts (Italy 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 112.8 122.0 121.8 120.0 117.2 124.5 151.5
Dry natural gas production, bcm 7.7 7.5 7.3 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 70.1 63.8 65.0 67.0 67.7 68.6 69.2
Refined products production, 000b/d 1,506.0 1,355.4 1,423.2 1,309.3 1,256.9 1,256.9 1,258.2
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 1,360.1 1,326.4 1,308.0 1,304.0 1,315.3 1,328.5 1,344.2
Brent, USD/bbl 108.70 99.50 57.00 56.00 55.00 60.00 64.00

Key Forecasts:

  • Italy's oil production is expected to receive a significant boost from the Tempa Rossa field, which is set to come online in late 2018. Nonetheless, this will not suffice to achieve the government's goal of doubling oil production by 2020. Rapidly declining reserves are expected to push oil output gradually lower in the post-2020 period.

  • A deteriorating downstream sector in Italy, as elsewhere in Europe, has seen large refining capacity and refined products production cuts over the past decade. Further cuts are to be expected, given continued capacity oversupply and demand contraction.

  • Economic difficulties are expected to continue suppressing oil consumption in Italy, which we see gradually declining till 2016, before entering a slow recovery phase until the end of our forecast period. Distillates consumption as a proportion of total refined products consumption will continue to make headway, as the share of gasoline consumption falls, due to the continued dieselisation of the vehicle fleet.

  • With limited domestic crude oil production, Italy will remain a large net importer of crude oil. However, net import requirements have fallen substantially and will continue to fall due to the large decrease in refining capacity. On the other hand, the refining capacity cuts will see continued decline in net refined products exports, which will fall to an insignificant amount by the end of our forecast period.

  • Due to maturing fields and lack of new significant discoveries, Italy's gas production will continue on a downward slope throughout our forecast period, declining from an estimated 7.5bcm in 2014 to 5.6bcm in 2024. Small-scale developments will slow production decline to a yearly 3% decline rate over the forecast period.

  • A slow but positive economic growth trajectory, in addition to increasing use in the residential sectors should see gas consumption return to positive growth from 2015 onwards. Nevertheless, subdued economic environment will prevent more substantial consumption growth over our forecast period.

Latest Updates

  • In August 2015, Sound Oil agreed on a gas sales deal for its Casa Tonetto (including Narvesa gas field) production concession with Shell Energy Italia. Development at the field is on course for first gas in 2016.

  • In May 2015, the Italian government gave a final authorisation for the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline construction, despite local opposition in Italy's Apulia region, which is highly dependent on tourism.

  • In March 2015, Royal Dutch Shell's wholly owned subsidiary Shell Italia E&P farmed-in an 80% interest and operatorship of the Cascina Alberto permit onshore north west Italy from AIM-listed Northern Petroleum. Shell will pay USD850,000 in cash on completion of the transaction. Shell will continue with the North Petroleum exploratio n programme, which includes the acquisition of any new seismic data until the seismic costs reach USD4mn and exploration of the well until costs reach USD50mn.

  • In August 2015, Italy's Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni stated that Iran is likely to modify contract terms with the state-owned oil company Eni as the country emerges from a tough regime of Western sanctions. Earlier in August, Eni noted that it would consider investing in Iran after sanctions are removed and if Tehran provides favourable contract terms similar to international standards.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Italy 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Italy 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Italy 2019-2024)
11
Upstream Projects
16
Table: Upstream Projects
16
Upstream Production - Oil
17
Table: Oil Production (Italy 2013-2018)
17
Table: Oil Production (Italy 2019-2024)
17
Upstream Production - Gas
18
Table: Gas Production (Italy 2013-2018)
18
Table: Gas Production (Italy 2019-2024)
19
Refining
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Italy 2013-2018)
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Italy 2019-2024)
21
Refined Fuels Consumption
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Italy 2013-2018)
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Italy 2019-2024)
25
Gas Consumption
26
Table: Gas Consumption (Italy 2019-2024)
27
Trade - Oil
28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Italy 2013-2018)
28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Italy 2019-2024)
28
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Italy 2013-2018)
30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Italy 2019-2024)
30
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Italy 2013-2018)
31
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Italy 2019-2024)
32
Trade - Gas (Pipeline & LNG)
32
Table: Gas Net Exports (Italy 2013-2018)
32
Table: Gas Net Exports (Italy 2019-2024)
33
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
North America And Western Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
37
Table: North America & Western Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
37
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
38
Wide North America / Western Europe Upstream Gap To Remain
39
North America: Canada Losing Its Edge
39
Western Europe Languishes Without Shale Outlook
40
Downstream: US Comes Out Top
42
Table: Oil & Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Index
42
Italy - Risk/Reward Index
45
Italy Upstream Index
45
Italy Downstream Index
45
Market Overview
47
Italy Energy Market Overview
47
International Relations
48
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
49
Oil Refineries
49
Table: Refineries In Italy
50
Service Stations
52
Oil Storage Facilities
52
Oil Terminals/Ports
52
LNG Terminals
52
Table: Italy - LNG Terminals
55
Gas Storage Facilities
55
Gas Pipelines
56
Competitive Landscape
60
Competitive Landscape Summary
60
Company Profile
62
Eni
62
ERG
71
Royal Dutch Shell
76
Po Valley Energy
80
Other Summaries
85
Regional Overview
91
North America And Western Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
91
Global Industry Overview
102
Global Energy Market Overview
102
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
102
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
105
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
106
Appendix
108
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
108
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
108
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
109
Developed Europe - Regional Appendix
110
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
110
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
111
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
111
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
112
Table: Refinery Capacity - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
112
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
113
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
113
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
114
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
114
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
115
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
115
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
116
Italy - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
116
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Italy 2013-2018)
116
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Italy 2019-2024)
117
Italy - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
118
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Italy 2013-2018)
118
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Italy 2019-2024)
119
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Italy 2013-2018)
120
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Italy 2019-2024)
121
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Italy 2013-2018)
122
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Italy 2019-2024)
123
Glossary
125
Table: Glossary Of Terms
125
Methodology
127
Industry Forecast Methodology
127
Source
129
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
129
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
131
Table: Weighting
132

The Italy Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Italy including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Italy Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Italian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Italy to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Italian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Italian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Italy.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.