Italy Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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Italy Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: SSN pharmaceutical expenditure will decline in 2016 - intensifying the revenue pressures for drugmakers and pharmacies in Italy, and increasing out-of-pocket costs for the population. The government remains committed to remaining under the 3% of GDP budget deficit limit and using any additional fiscal capacity to ease the tax burden instead of ramping up spending. This will continue to negatively impact the healthcare sector and particularly pharmaceutical spending, a large beneficiary of public funds.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: EUR26.91bn (USD29.84bn) in 2015 to EUR27.21bn (USD29.11bn) in 2016; -1.1% in local currency terms and -2.5% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: EUR150.49bn (USD166.90bn) in 2015 to EUR151.91bn (USD162.55bn) in 2016; +1% in local currency terms and -2.6% in US dollar terms.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Italy 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 35.350 29.840 29.110 30.290 32.080 33.930 34.400
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 1.65 1.64 1.64 1.61 1.59 1.57 1.56
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 18.0 18.0 17.9
Health spending, USDbn 198.010 166.900 162.550 168.830 178.570 188.900 191.870

R isk/Reward Index

In our Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk/Reward Index for Q316, Italy comes in 13th place out of the 15 markets surveyed in Western Europe, above Ireland and Portugal and below the Netherlands and Spain. Despite being a large market, Italy is characterised by low levels of annual growth, largely due to of widespread price cuts, resulting in the market scoring a below average rating of 63.4.

Latest Updates

  • In the first nine months of 2015, the national total pharmaceutical expenditure (public and private) totalled EUR21.3bn.

  • Overall, the direct contribution of pharmacies towards pharmaceutical cost containment in the first nine months of 2015 was approximately EUR580mn (USD660mn).

  • In September 2015, patient co-payments for medicines stood at 13.5%, a slight decrease from 13.5% in September 2015.

BMI Economic View

Tight credit conditions and a weak labour market will continue to weigh on Italy's growth in 2016, despite the passage of reforms aimed at addressing each issue. We are modestly below consensus in our real GDP growth forecasts of 1.0% and 1.2% in 2016 and 2017 respectively.

BMI Political View

Prime Minister Matteo Renzi appears safe for now, but mounting economic headwinds could undermine his government. There are several plausible scenarios in which fresh elections are called before end-2016, and polls indicate that the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement could beat Renzi's centre-left Democratic Party in a head-to-head matchup.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Italy 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
10
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2012-2020)
12
Healthcare Market Forecast
13
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2012-2020)
15
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2012-2020)
15
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2012-2020)
16
Prescription Drugs Market Forecast
17
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2012-2020)
18
Patented Drug Market Forecast
19
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2012-2020)
20
Generic Drugs Market Forecast
21
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2012-2020)
23
OTC Drug Market Forecast
24
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2012-2020)
25
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
26
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Italy 2014-2020)
27
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Italy 2014-2020)
28
Industry Risk Reward Index
29
Western Europe Risk/Reward Index
29
Italy Risk/Reward Index
34
Rewards
34
Risks
34
Regulatory Review
35
Intellectual Property Issues
35
Pricing Regime
37
Reimbursement Regime
41
Market Overview
43
Healthcare Sector
43
Table: Healthcare Resources (Italy 2010-2015)
44
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Italy 2010-2015)
44
Table: Healthcare Activity (Italy 2010-2015)
45
Research & Development
45
Clinical Trials
46
Epidemiology
47
Competitive Landscape
49
Research-Based Industry
49
Table: Multinational Market Activity
50
Pharmaceutical Distribution
50
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
51
Company Profile
53
GlaxoSmithKline
53
Menarini
55
Novartis
58
Pfizer
61
Recordati
63
Demographic Forecast
66
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Italy 1990-2025)
67
Table: Key Population Ratios (Italy 1990-2025)
67
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Italy 1990-2025)
68
Table: Population By Age Group (Italy 1990-2025)
68
Table: Population By Age Group % (Italy 1990-2025)
69
Glossary
71
Methodology
73
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
73
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
73
Notes On Methodology
74
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
75
Index Overview
76
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
76
Indicator Weightings
77

The Italy Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Italy Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Italy pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Italy, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Italian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Italian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Italy.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.