BMI View: The pharmaceutical expenditure of Italy's national health service will decline in 2015 - intensifying the revenue pressures for drugmakers and pharmacies in Italy, and increasing out-of-pocket costs for the population. The Italian government aims to slash EUR10bn (USD11bn) in healthcare spending over the next three years and pharmaceutical spending will remain a target of cost containment.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR22.04bn (USD29.53bn) in 2014 to EUR21.75bn (USD23.92bn) in 2015; -1.3% in local currency terms and -19.0% in US dollar terms.
Healthcare: EUR140.48bn (USD188.25bn) in 2014 to EUR140.19bn (USD154.20bn) in 2015; -0.2% growth in local currency terms and -18.1% in US dollar terms.
In our Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk/Reward Index for Q415, Italy comes in 13th place out of the 15 markets surveyed in Western Europe. Despite being a large market, Italy is characterised by low levels of annual growth, largely due to of widespread price cuts.
Key Trends And Developments
In Q115, pharmaceutical expenditure by the national health service (Servizio Sanitario Nazionale - SSN) fell by 0.3% to EUR2.27bn (USD2.51bn). The number of prescriptions dispensed in Q115 fell by 0.7% to 157mn over Q114 volumes. From January to March 2015, more than 157mn prescriptions were written, equating to approximately 2.6 prescriptions (4.8 packs) per citizen.
The total number of clinical trials in Italy fell from 909 in 2012 to 875 in 2014, representing a drop of 3.7%. Large, lengthy and expensive Phase IV studies experienced the greatest decline (-42.6%), followed by Phase III studies (-14.8%). Meanwhile, early stage clinical trials in Italy, which have high fixed costs irrespective of where they are conducted, saw an increase in numbers between 2012 and 2014.
Italian pharmaceutical company Recordati reported a 6.2% y-o-y increase in consolidated revenues to EUR539.1mn (USD589.79mn) in H115.
BMI Economic View
The Italy Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Italy Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Italy pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Italy, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Italian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Italian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Italy.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.