Italy Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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Italy Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Drugmaker revenue streams will continue to be constrained in Italy as companies will be forced to refund a significant portion of the regional public pharmaceutical overspend for 2015 and beyond. Italian regions will continue to struggle to maintain pharmaceutical expenditure below the 3.5% ceiling of the national healthcare budget. Although the government may implement measures to contain future pharmaceutical expenditure, it will be impossible to reverse the trend by the end of 2016.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: EUR21.74bn (USD23.92bn) in 2015 to EUR21.50bn (USD23.01bn) in 2016; -1.1% in local currency terms and -3.8% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: EUR141.14bn (USD155.26bn) in 2015 to EUR141.50bn (USD151.40bn) in 2016; +0.3% in local currency terms and -2.5% in US dollar terms.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Italy 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 29.530 23.916 23.005 23.477 24.473 25.610 25.781
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 1.36 1.34 1.30 1.25 1.22 1.19 1.17
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 15.6 15.4 15.2 15.0 14.8 14.6 14.4
Health spending, USDbn 189.403 155.256 151.403 156.796 165.798 175.590 178.816

R isk/Reward Index

In our Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk/Reward Index for Q216, Italy comes in 13th place out of the 15 markets surveyed in Western Europe, above Ireland and Portugal and below the Netherlands and Spain. Despite being a large market, Italy is characterised by low levels of annual growth, largely due to of widespread price cuts, resulting in the market scoring a below average rating of 63.4.

Latest Updates

  • More than 40% of Italians think healthcare in the country is worsening, a figure that increases to 60% in the country's south, according to a study released by Censis in December 2015.

  • Italy's doctors went on a strike on December 16 2015, despite the government amending its budget for 2016 to allow for the hiring of new health sector personnel to address the effects of EU rules on work hours.

  • In Q415, France-based AXA Investment Managers - Real Assets concluded the purchase of a portfolio of eight acute care hospital facilities in Northern Italy from private operator Policlinico Di Monza.

BMI Economic View

Italian real GDP growth will accelerate to 1.2% in 2016, from an estimated 0.8% in 2015, driven by stronger domestic demand. While exports will accelerate in line with improving demand from the eurozone and other developed state trading partners, net trade will subtract from growth and weak external competitiveness remains a key drag on the medium-term outlook.

BMI Political View

Public support for Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's government will receive a boost from pro-growth fiscal policy and rising employment levels, which will arrest the recent surge in support for anti-establishment parties. With the structural reform agenda broadly on track, new elections are likely to be called if Senate reform is completed in late 2016 or early 2017.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Italy 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
10
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2011-2019)
11
Healthcare Market Forecast
12
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2011-2019)
14
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2011-2019)
14
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2011-2019)
15
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
16
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2011-2019)
17
Patented Drug Market Forecast
18
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2011-2019)
19
Generic Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2011-2019)
22
OTC Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2011-2019)
24
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
25
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Italy 2013-2019)
26
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Italy 2013-2019)
27
Industry Risk Reward Index
28
Western Europe Risk/Reward Index
28
Italy Risk/Reward Index
34
Rewards
34
Risks
34
Regulatory Review
35
Intellectual Property Issues
36
Pricing Regime
38
Reimbursement Regime
41
Market Overview
44
Healthcare Sector
44
Table: Healthcare Resources (Italy 2009-2014)
45
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Italy 2009-2014)
45
Table: Healthcare Activity (Italy 2009-2014)
46
Research & Development
46
Clinical Trials
47
Epidemiology
48
Competitive Landscape
50
Research-Based Industry
50
Table: Multinational Market Activity
51
Pharmaceutical Distribution
51
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
52
Company Profile
54
GlaxoSmithKline
54
Menarini
56
Novartis
59
Pfizer
62
Recordati
65
Demographic Forecast
68
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Italy 1990-2025)
69
Table: Key Population Ratios (Italy 1990-2025)
69
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Italy 1990-2025)
70
Table: Population By Age Group (Italy 1990-2025)
70
Table: Population By Age Group % (Italy 1990-2025)
71
Glossary
73
Methodology
75
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
75
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
75
Notes On Methodology
76
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
77
Index Overview
78
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
78
Indicator Weightings
79

The Italy Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Italy Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Italy pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Italy, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Italian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Italian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Italy.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.