Italy Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 09 June 2015

  • 101 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Italy Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Drugmakers will continue to face revenue earning challenges in Italy. In 2014, spending by Italy's national healthcare service, Servizio Sanitario Nazionale (SSN), fell for the seventh consecutive year in which SSN spending on drugs declined. S S N pharmaceutical expenditure will decline in 2015 - creating further revenue pressures for drugmakers as well as pharmacies in Italy and increasing out-of-pocket costs for the population. In February 2015, it was announced that the public healthcare costs will be slashed by EUR2.6bn (USD2.9bn) in 2015. We note that this accounts for a large proportion of the EUR5.2bn (USD5.8bn) spending cuts announced by the government.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: EUR21.00bn (USD28.14bn) in 2014 to EUR20.51bn (USD25.56bn) in 2015; -2.3% in local currency terms and -19.8% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: EUR140.55bn (USD188.33bn) in 2014 to EUR140.28bn (USD154.30bn) in 2015; -0.2% growth in local currency terms and -18.1% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Index

In our Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk/Reward Index for Q315, Italy is 13th out of the 15 markets surveyed in Western Europe. Despite being a large market, Italy is characterised by low levels of annual growth, largely due to of widespread price cuts. Additionally, the Italian economy is one of the most vulnerable economies in an already shaky eurozone. High levels of public debt, poor infrastructure and a lack of competitiveness indicate that the country will remain one of the region's laggards over the forecast period.

Key Trends And Developments

  • In 2014, spending by Italy's national healthcare service, Servizio Sanitario Nazionale, fell to EUR8.77bn (USD9.64bn) from EUR9.06bn (USD9.96bn) in 2013 - the seventh consecutive year in which SSN spending on drugs declined. The drop was a 3.1% decline in spending compared with 2013, despite a 0.2% increase in the number of prescriptions.

  • In May 2015, GlaxoSmithKline and Italian partners...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2011-2019)
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2011-2019)
17
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2011-2019)
18
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2011-2019)
18
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
19
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2011-2019)
20
Patented Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2011-2019)
22
Generic Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2011-2019)
25
OTC Medicines Market Forecast
26
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2011-2019)
27
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Italy 2013-2019)
29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Italy 2013-2019)
29
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
30
Macroeconomic Forecasts
31
Economic Analysis
31
Table: Economic Activity (Italy 2010-2019)
40
Industry Risk Reward Index
41
Western Europe Risk/Reward Index
41
Italy Risk/Reward Index
46
Rewards
46
Risks
46
Market Overview
47
Industry Trends And Developments
48
Epidemiology
48
Healthcare Sector
49
Table: Healthcare Resources (Italy 2009-2014)
50
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Italy 2009-2014)
50
Table: Healthcare Activity (Italy 2009-2014)
51
Research & Development
51
Clinical Trials
52
Regulatory Development
54
Intellectual Property Developments
55
Pricing Regime
57
Reimbursement Regime
60
Tenders
63
Competitive Landscape
66
Research-Based Industry
66
Pharmaceutical Distribution
68
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
69
Company Profile
71
Recordati
71
Menarini
74
GlaxoSmithKline
77
Pfizer
79
Novartis
82
Sanofi
85
Merck & Co
87
Demographic Forecast
89
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Italy 1990-2025)
90
Table: Key Population Ratios (Italy 1990-2025)
90
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Italy 1990-2025)
91
Table: Population By Age Group (Italy 1990-2025)
91
Table: Population By Age Group % (Italy 1990-2025)
92
Glossary
94
Methodology
96
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
96
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
96
Notes On Methodology
97
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
98
Index Overview
99
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
99
Indicator Weightings
100

The Italy Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Italy Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Italy pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Italy, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Italian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Italian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Italy.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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