Italy Power Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the power.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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Italy Power Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Italy's power sector faces numerous challenges in the short - to medium term. As well as falling energy prices across Europe, consumption rates are also declining in Italy, undermining demand for any new installed capacity. Many power firms are phasing out ageing coal-fired power plants and overall we expect to see a decline in thermal capacity over the forecast period. Some growth will be realised in the non-hydropower renewables sector, particularly solar and wind power , which are already well established in Italy. We also expect to see further solid investment in the country's national transmission grid, as well as upgrades and expansion work to cross-border connections. The primary risk to our forecasts, and to investor interest, stems from an uncertain regulatory environment in relation to renewable energy subsidies beyond end - 2016.

Headline Power Forecasts (Italy 2015-2021)
2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI
Generation, Total, TWh 281.650 281.710 281.630 281.960 282.420 283.010 283.700
Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh 292.2 291.6 290.1 288.7 287.8 286.4 285.2
Capacity, Net, MW 115,971.9 111,400.4 109,016.1 108,939.4 109,311.9 109,876.7 110,847.4

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • Natural-gas fired power is currently the largest single contributor to Italy's domestic energy mix, accounting for almost 45% of total electricity generation in 2016. Falling gas prices throughout Europe, while potentially boosting short-term profit margins, will undermine investor interest in this sector and we expect to see limited growth in natural-gas generation throughout the forecast period through to 2025.

  • The outlook is more subdued for coal and oil-fired thermal power. Ageing thermal infrastructure is being phased out and in 2016 we expect coal-fired generation to contract

  • 12.9%, while oil-fired power will fall 21.0%, with further declines expected throughout the ten-year forecast period.

  • In contrast, non-hydropower renewables will see slow, but steady growth as new wind and solar power plants are brought online. The wind power sector will receive a short-term boost from the April 2016 European Commission approval of regulatory updates, which will release EUR400mn in subsidies for the year, although a lack of clarity for post-2016 subsidies remains a headwind to growth.

  • Overall we expect generation in Italy to increase from 281.71TWh in 2016 to 286.95TWh in 2025, averaging annual growth of less than 1% as small gains in renewables are offset by a loss of capacity in thermal power. At the same time consumption is expected to decline from 291.6TWh to 280.4TWh, in line with efficiency gains and the subdued economic outlook in the country.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Italy 2015-2021)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Italy Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Italy 2015-2019)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Italy 2020-2025)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
11
Italy Power Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Italy 2014-2019)
21
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Italy 2020-2025)
22
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Italy 2014-2019)
22
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Italy 2020-2025)
23
Electricity Consumption
24
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Italy 2014-2019)
25
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Italy 2020-2025)
25
Transmission And Distribution, Imports & Exports
25
Table: Italy's Recent Power Transmission Sector Developments
28
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Italy 2014-2019)
28
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Italy 2020-2025)
29
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Italy 2014-2019)
29
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Italy 2020-2025)
29
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
30
NAWE Power RRI: US Outperforms Tepid European Power Markets
30
Italy Power Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Rewards
36
Risks
37
Market Overview
38
Key Policies And Market Structure
38
Regulation And Competition
38
Pricing
40
Italy Power Projects Database
41
Competitive Landscape
43
Enel
43
Edison
44
Terna
44
Other Companies: Risk To Profits Will Encourage Thermal Power Consolidation
44
Company Profile
46
Enel
46
Regional Overview
52
NAWE Power Key Themes
52
Glossary
60
Table: Glossary Of Terms
60
Methodology
61
Methodology And Sources
61
Industry Forecast Methodology
61
Sources
64
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
64
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
65
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
66

The Italy Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Italy Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Italy to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Italy's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Italy.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).