Italy Power Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the power.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Italy Power Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Our growth outlook for Italy's non-hydropower renewable energy sector improved this quarter as a result of the approval of a sizeable long-term incentive scheme for the industry. This will mitigate regulatory uncertainty in the Italian power market, which has been one of the key headwinds to investment in the country. However, Italy will continue to face problems such as overcapacity, low wholesale power prices and contracting power consumption. In this context, we maintain that the solar, wind and transmission and distribution segments will be the most attractive sectors for investment in the Italian power market.

Headline Power Forecasts (Italy 2015-2021)
2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI
Generation, Total, TWh 281.650 281.710 281.630 281.960 282.420 283.010 283.700
Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh 292.2 291.6 290.1 288.7 287.8 286.4 285.2
Capacity, Net, MW 116,082.7 111,543.0 109,170.7 109,121.9 109,523.2 110,125.4 111,127.9

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • In June, the Italian government approved a EUR9bn subsidy scheme for the renewables sector - with the funds set to be distributed to project developers over a 20-year timeframe. This will entail EUR435mn in earmarked funds on an annual basis over the envisioned timeframe of the support mechanism. After protracted policy uncertainty over the last several years, the availability of long-term funding, coupled with the continued transition to a closely calibrated reverse capacity auction system that is regulated by capacity caps and competitive bidding, will be conducive to growth that is more economically sustainable for Italy's public finances.

  • In April, the European Commission (EC) released an interim report on its inquiry on capacity mechanisms for the thermal power sector in Europe, which includes the Italian power market. The EC expects its final guidelines on the subject to be published by the end of 2016. Although Italy's regulators originally aimed at starting the capacity mechanism in 2017, a first capacity auction for thermal power plants in the country is likely to take place in 2018 at the earliest.

  • In August 2016, Italy's energy regulator AEEGSI introduced new rules for the power grid imbalance charges. These are fees charged to generators that fail to supply the amount of power they committed for the day-ahead market. Under the new scheme, these generators will face higher charges in case they do not offer the supply committed - a system that is intended to put an end to the practice of holding back supply from the day-ahead market in order to make it available in the real-time balancing market at a higher price. According to media reports, the new rules have been introduced with a tolerance band of plus or minus 15% around companies' forecasts for their day-ahead demand and supply; this band will be tightened to plus or minus 7.5% from January 1 2017.

  • In July, Italy's main utility Enel approved the acquisition of fibre-optic firm Metroweb, which will be merged with its subsidiary Enel Open Fiber. This move will reinforce Enel's plan to enter the business of developing ultra-broadband fibre infrastructure in Italy, operating as a wholesale player. In addition, in September Enel announced the creation of a new business unit - called Global Fiber Optic Infrastructures - which will develop ultra-broadband infrastructure in foreign markets.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Italy 2015-2021)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Italy Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Italy 2015-2019)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Italy 2020-2025)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
11
Italy Power Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Italy 2014-2019)
21
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Italy 2020-2025)
22
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Italy 2014-2019)
22
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Italy 2020-2025)
23
Electricity Consumption
24
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Italy 2014-2019)
25
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Italy 2020-2025)
25
Transmission And Distribution, Imports & Exports
25
Table: Italy's Recent Power Transmission Sector Developments
28
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Italy 2014-2019)
28
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Italy 2020-2025)
29
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Italy 2014-2019)
29
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Italy 2020-2025)
29
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
30
NAWE Power RRI: US Outperforms Tepid European Power Markets
30
Italy Power Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Rewards
36
Risks
37
Market Overview
38
Key Policies And Market Structure
38
Regulation And Competition
38
Pricing
40
Italy Power Projects Database
41
Competitive Landscape
43
Enel
43
Edison
44
Terna
44
Other Companies: Risk To Profits Will Encourage Thermal Power Consolidation
44
Company Profile
46
Enel
46
Regional Overview
52
NAWE Power Key Themes
52
Glossary
60
Table: Glossary Of Terms
60
Methodology
61
Methodology And Sources
61
Industry Forecast Methodology
61
Sources
64
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
64
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
65
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
66

The Italy Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Italy Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Italy to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Italy's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Italy.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).