Italy Power Report

Published 22 June 2015

  • 67 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Italy Power Report

BMI View: Thermal power capacity retirements amid slow growth in power consumption underpin our bearish outlook for Italy's thermal power sector - although an expected uptick in economic growth and lower natural gas prices, coupled with an announced capacity market, could offer some relief to gas-fired power generators. W e expect the country's renewables and power transmission and distribution sectors to offer the greatest investment oppo rtunities, despite a relatively uncertain regulatory outlook .

We maintain that the renewable energy sector and transmission and distribution assets present the best opportunities for growth in Italy's power sector, as a result of the country's commitment before the EU to reduce carbon emissions and strengthen power markets integration. During the 2015-2024 period, we expect Italy's overall power generation to increase at an annual average rate of 0.53%, reaching over 291 terawatt hours by the end of our forecast period.

On the back of easing credit conditions, rising disposable incomes, an improving export outlook and ongoing structural reforms, our Country Risk team has revised upwards its forecast for the Italian real GDP growth in 2015 and 2016. As a result, we expect power consumption to expand at an average annual rate of 1.06% between 2015 and 2024 - although the risks to our projections are weighted to the downside.

Key Trends And Developments

  • In May 2015, Italy's power grid operator Terna signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Italian power group Enel for cooperation in the identification, assessment and development of power transmission projects outside of Italy. For the agreement - which will last three years - Terna will provide technical cooperation to Enel and will evaluate the acquisition of existing transmission assets and the development of greenfield projects. Our expectation for strong demand for power transmission assets in the markets where Enel is increasing its presence...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
12
Italy Snapshot
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Italy 2014-2019)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Italy 2019-2024)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
12
Italy Power Forecast Scenario
13
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Italy 2013-2018)
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Italy 2019-2024)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Italy 2013-2018)
16
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Italy 2019-2024)
16
Electricity Consumption
25
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Italy 2013-2018)
25
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Italy 2019-2024)
25
Transmission And Distribution, Imports & Exports
26
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Italy 2013-2018)
26
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Italy 2019-2024)
26
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Italy 2013-2018)
26
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Italy 2019-2024)
27
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
29
NAWE Power Risk/Reward Index
29
Table: North America And Western Europe Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100)
32
Italy Power Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Rewards
33
Risks
34
Market Overview
35
Key Policies And Market Structure
35
Regulation And Competition
35
Pricing
36
Italy Power Projects Database
38
Table: Italy Key Projects - Power
38
Competitive Landscape
39
Enel
39
Edison
40
Terna
41
Electrabel
42
Company Profile
43
Enel
43
Regional Overview
48
North America And Western Europe Regional Overview
48
Table: Proposed Capacity Mechanisms
52
Glossary
55
Table: Glossary Of Terms
55
Methodology
56
Industry Forecast Methodology
56
Sources
59
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
59
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
60
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
61

The Italy Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Italy Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Italy to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Italy's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Italy.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc