Italy Power Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the power.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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Italy Power Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Non-hydropower renewables and transmission and distribution networks will be the most attractive sectors in the Italian power market in 2016, due to planned financial incentives for non-PV renewable s and public and private focus on the development of additional cross-border power interconnection s . Delays in the introduction of a capacity market maintain our outlook for the Italian thermal power sector grim, with further retirements expected to take place.

Headline Power Forecasts (Italy 2014-2020)
2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Terna, EIA, BMI
Generation, Total, TWh 279.816 277.321 277.918 278.908 279.838 280.233 281.267
Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh 287.9 292.2 291.6 290.1 288.7 287.8 286.4
Capacity, Net, MW 122,221.4 116,351.4 112,170.6 110,133.2 110,308.1 110,861.1 111,472.7

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • The first round of auction for a simplified thermal capacity market didn't take place in September 2015, the deadline initially recommended by the Italian energy regulator AEEGSI in March. This makes unlikely that a capacity market will be introduced by 2017, the deadline suggested by AEEGSI to guarantee the stability of the Italian power market. These factors, coupled with low wholesale electricity prices and growing renewables power generation, support our negative outlook for Italy's thermal power sector - with additional capacity retirements expected.

  • The narrow margins of Italy's thermal power generators could push players in the sector towards consolidation. As a potential first step in this direction, in November 2015, utilities A2A and Sorgenia agreed on the shared management of two CCGT power plants for a period of five years. The aim of the operation is to enhance the efficiency of the grid and of the plants involved.

  • A regulation from the Ministry of Economic Development which will extend existing incentives to new non-photovoltaic (PV) renewables capacity has been approved by all relevant Italian legislative bodies and will enter into force in 2016, provided that it is accepted by the European Commission (EC). Should the EC fail to approve the regulation before the end of January 2016, the ceiling to the existing incentives (which is left unchanged to EUR5.8bn) would be reached and the regulation would need to be modified. Given this remaining risk of delays, at present we are not including in our forecast for 2016 the positive impact that new incentives would have on the deployment of non-PV renewables in 2016.

  • We expect to see a decoupling between growth in Italy's real GDP and power consumption over the coming years, a trend that is increasingly common among developed economies. Government support for the adoption of technologies reducing an economy's energy intensity - the ratio between energy use and economic output - will be a crucial factor in this structural shift. To this end, in October 2015 the Italian government decided to extend existing incentives for energy efficiency measures until the end of 2016, by including them in next year's budget law.

  • We maintain a positive outlook for the growth strategy of Italy's power group Enel as the company strengthens its focus on renewable energy, emerging markets, networks and reducing merchant risk via concentrating on regulated assets. The re-integration of Enel Green Power in the group - announced in November 2015 - will be a crucial step in this direction, with Enel gaining exposure to several high-growth markets.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Italy Snapshot
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Italy 2014-2019)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Italy 2019-2024)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
10
Italy Power Forecast Scenario
11
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Italy 2013-2018)
11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Italy 2019-2024)
12
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Italy 2013-2018)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Italy 2019-2024)
14
Electricity Consumption
23
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Italy 2013-2018)
23
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Italy 2019-2024)
23
Transmission And Distribution, Imports & Exports
24
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Italy 2013-2018)
24
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Italy 2019-2024)
24
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Italy 2013-2018)
24
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Italy 2019-2024)
24
Table: Italy's Recent Power Transmission Sector Developments
27
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Power Risk/Reward Index
28
Table: NAWE Power RRI
32
Italy Power Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Rewards
33
Risks
33
Market Overview
35
Key Policies And Market Structure
35
Regulation And Competition
35
Pricing
37
Table: Electricity Prices In EU Member States
37
Italy Power Projects Database
39
Table: Italy Power Projects Database
39
Competitive Landscape
41
Enel
41
Edison
42
Terna
42
Electrabel
43
Company Profile
44
Enel
44
Regional Overview
49
NAWE Power: Key Regional Themes
49
Glossary
56
Table: Glossary Of Terms
56
Methodology
57
Industry Forecast Methodology
57
Sources
60
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
60
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
61
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
62

The Italy Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Italy Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Italy to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Italy's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Italy.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).