Japan Agribusiness Report

Published 13 March 2015

  • 94 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Japan Agribusiness Report

BMI View: The government's plans to diminish the once-powerful Central Union Agricultural Cooperative (JA-Zenchu) 's influence and clout in the industry by 2019 is a strong indication to us that much-needed structural reform of the agriculture industry is underway. Indeed, by 2019 , the JA Zenchu is supposed to become a general incorporated association with co-ops having the option of engaging independent auditors instead of working with those associated to the JA Zenchu. By reducing the power of the Union, the government is sending out a clear sign that it is serious about the reforms, as further reflected in the increased openness towards a compromise for the TPP . Other structural issues that should be addressed are the ageing farmer population (the average age of a Japanese farmer is close to 70 years old) coupled with highly inefficient farming methods - usually constrained by the small plots of family run farms . I t is no wonder why agriculture employment is shrinking so rapidly. According to official figures, people engaged in farming in Japan fell by 22.3% from 2005 to 2010 to reach 747,000. T he Japanese agriculture industry faces a bleak future if it does not reinvent itself.

Key Forecasts

  • Rice production growth to 2018/2019: 6.7% to 9.0mn tonnes. With the latest policy to do away with the four decade-long gentan policy which restricts output of the grain to prevent overproduction, we believe that this will herald a new season for the backward and ageing industry as industry consolidation will begin to take place.

  • Beef production growth to 2018/19: 2.5% to 508,000 tonnes. Livestock production is expected to be stable on the back of changes in the animal feed compensation program for farmers as well as muted consumption growth.

  • Soybean production growth to 2018/19: 16.2% to 230,000 tonnes. Despite its double digit growth, soybean production still remains a fraction of total consumption, which is mainly used for animal feed.

  • ...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
13
Rice Outlook
13
Table: Japan Rice Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
14
Table: Japan Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
16
Grains Outlook
17
Table: Japan Wheat Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
18
Table: Japan Corn Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
18
Table: Japan Barley Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
18
Table: Japan Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
19
Table: Japan Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
19
Table: Japan Barley Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
19
Livestock Outlook
21
Table: Japan Poultry Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
21
Table: Japan Pork Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
22
Table: Japan Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
22
Table: Japan Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
23
Table: Japan Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
23
Table: Japan Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
24
Soybean Outlook
25
Table: Japan Soybean Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
25
Table: Japan Soybean Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
27
Commodities Price Analysis
29
Monthly Grains Strategy
29
Table: Selected Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
36
Monthly Softs Strategy
36
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
44
Upstream Analysis
46
Asia Machinery Outlook
46
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn)
46
Table: Selected Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
50
Asia GM Outlook
54
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops Use
60
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
60
Table: India - Fertiliser Subsidies, INR/kg
65
Downstream Analysis
67
Food
67
Food Consumption
67
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Japan 2011-2018)
68
Confectionery
68
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Japan 2011-2018)
69
Meat
71
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (Japan 2013-2018)
71
Drink
72
Alcoholic Drinks
72
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Japan 2013-2018)
73
Hot Drinks
74
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Japan 2013-2018)
74
Soft Drinks
75
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Japan 2013-2018)
75
Mass Grocery Retail
77
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Japan 2013-2018)
78
Regional Overview
79
Table: Indonesia & Malaysia Palm Oil Refining Capacity & Utilisation Rate
81
Table: Selected Countries - Biofuel Blending Mandates & Programmes
85
Competitive Landscape
87
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
87
Demographic Forecast
88
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
89
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
90
Table: Japan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
91
Table: Japan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
91
Methodology
92
Industry Forecast Methodology
92
Sector-Specific Methodology
93

The Japan Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Japan Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc