Japan Agribusiness Report

Published 12 June 2015

  • 91 pages
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$1,295.00
Japan Agribusiness Report

BMI View: The government's plans to diminish the influence of the once-powerful Central Union Agricultural Cooperative (JA-Zenchu) are a strong indication to us that much-needed structural reform of the agriculture industry is underway. Indeed, by 2019 , the JA Zenchu is supposed to become a general incorporated association with co-ops having the option of engaging independent auditors instead of working with those associated to the JA Zenchu. By reducing the power of the Union, the government is sending out a clear sign that it is serious about the reforms, as further reflected in the increased openness towards a compromise for the Trans-Pacific Partnership . Other structural issues that should be addressed are the ageing farmer population (the average age of a Japanese farmer is close to 70) coupled with highly inefficient farming methods - usually constrained by the small plots of family - run farms . I t is no wonder why agricultural employment is shrinking so rapidly. According to official figures, people engaged in farming in Japan fell by 22.3% from 2005 to 2010 to reach 747,000. T he Japanese agriculture industry faces a bleak future if it does not reinvent itself.

Key Forecasts

  • Rice production growth to 2018/2019: 5.5% to 8.9mn tonnes. With the latest policy to do away with the four decade-long gentan policy, which restricts output of the grain to prevent overproduction, we believe this will herald a new season for the backward and ageing industry, as consolidation will begin to take place.

  • Beef production growth to 2018/19: 3.0% to 517,000 tonnes. Livestock production is expected to be stable on the back of changes in the animal feed compensation program for farmers, as well as muted consumption growth.

  • Soybean production growth to 2018/19: 16.2% to 230,000 tonnes. Despite its double-digit growth, soybean production still remains a fraction of total consumption. It is mainly used for animal feed.

  • 2015 real GDP growth:...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Operational Risk SWOT
11
Industry Forecast
13
Rice Outlook
13
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Japan 2013-2019)
14
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Japan 2009-2014)
17
Grains Outlook
18
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Japan 2014-2019)
19
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Japan 2014-2019)
19
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Japan 2014-2019)
19
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Japan 2009-2014)
21
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Japan 2009-2014)
22
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Japan 2009-2014)
22
Livestock Outlook
23
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Japan 2014-2019)
24
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Japan 2014-2019)
24
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Japan 2014-2019)
24
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Japan 2009-2014)
25
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Japan 2009-2014)
26
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Japan 2009-2014)
26
Soybean Outlook
27
Table: Soybean Production & Consumption (Japan 2014-2019)
28
Table: Soybean Production & Consumption (Japan 2009-2014)
30
Commodities Price Analysis
32
Monthly Softs Strategy
32
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
41
Monthly Grains Strategy
42
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
49
Upstream Analysis
50
Asia GM Outlook
50
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use
52
Asia Machinery Outlook
53
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
54
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
60
Downstream Analysis
65
Food
65
Food Consumption
65
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Japan 2012-2019)
66
Confectionery
66
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Japan 2012-2019)
67
Meat
69
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (Japan 2014-2019)
69
Drink
70
Alcoholic Drinks
70
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Japan 2014-2019)
71
Hot Drinks
72
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Japan 2014-2019)
72
Soft Drinks
73
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Japan 2014-2019)
74
Mass Grocery Retail
75
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Japan 2014-2019)
76
Regional Overview
77
Competitive Landscape
83
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
83
Demographic Forecast
84
Demographic Outlook
84
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Japan 1990-2025)
85
Table: Key Population Ratios (Japan 1990-2025)
85
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Japan 1990-2025)
86
Table: Population By Age Group (Japan 1990-2025)
86
Table: Population By Age Group % (Japan 1990-2025)
87
Methodology
89
Industry Forecast Methodology
89
Sector-Specific Methodology
90

The Japan Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Japan Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc