Japan Infrastructure Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Infrastructure industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, BMI Industry Forecast, BMI's Infrastructure Risk Reward Index, Market Overview and Company Profiles.

Why you should buy this report

  • Gain independent insight into the outlook for the infrastructure industry through BMI's 10 year forecasts
  • Understand the market through analysis of projects , investment plans and key players
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
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Japan Infrastructure Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Despite ongoing fiscal stimulus measures, structural challenges will continue to inhibit Japan's infrastructure sector and as such we expect to see only minimal growth in construction industry value in 2016. Ongoing reconstruction efforts following the 2011 earthquake and the more recent April 2016 earthquake will ensure continued growth in residential and non-residential construction, while a slight shift towards renewables will stimulate marginal growth in the energy sector.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • Japan's housing market has received a boost from government measures (including the negative interest rate) and the Residential Property Price Index was up 2.3% in May 2016 according to figures from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. New housing starts are also up, supporting our forecasts for a return to growth in the residential and non-residential construction sector in 2016.

  • A number of transport projects are underway, including airport expansions and further development of the high-speed rail network. We are therefore forecasting 1.2% growth in transport infrastructure industry value in 2016.

  • More subdued growth will be seen in the energy sector where Japan's mature power market and limited consumption growth mean there is little scope for large-scale new capacity projects, despite the continued outage at the vast majority of the country's nuclear power plants.

  • Overall we are forecasting growth of 1.6% in Japan's construction industry value in 2016 with growth expected to decline over the remainder of the forecast period. While the stimulus package does include significant infrastructure investment, the project pipeline remains slim and Japan's major construction firms will continue to focus expansion efforts on overseas markets.

Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Japan 2015-2021)
2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Cabinet Office, BMI
Construction industry value, JPYbn 29,627.81 30,206.87 31,037.56 31,984.20 32,910.33 33,867.46 34,856.67
Construction Industry Value, Real Growth, % y-o-y -0.58 1.55 0.75 0.45 0.15 0.06 -0.03
Construction Industry Value, % of GDP 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9

Risk/Reward Index

  • Japan maintains an infrastructure Risk/Reward Index of 61.9 out of 100 this quarter. In terms of regional performance, Japan is ranked seventh out of 21 countries assessed in Asia Pacific.

  • Although one of the largest in the world in value terms, Japan's infrastructure sector is expected to see only slow growth moving forward which limits the country's performance on the Rewards side.

  • Japan has a very strong Risks profile with excellent access to financing options and a high degree of policy continuity.

Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (Japan 2016-2016)
Risk/Reward Index Rewards Industry Rewards Country Rewards Risks Industry Risks Country Risks
Source: BMI
Japan 61.9 56.5 40.0 87.0 74.7 75.0 74.5
BMI Industry View
7
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
7
Table: Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Japan 2015-2021)
7
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index (Japan 2016-2016)
8
SWOT
9
Infrastructure SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
11
Latest Updates
11
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Japan 2015-2025)
11
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
17
Latest Updates
17
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Japan 2015-2025)
18
Table: Top 5 Transport Projects By Value
25
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
25
Latest Updates
25
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Japan 2015-2025)
26
Table: Fact Box: Proposed Changes In Fourth Basic Energy Plan
27
Table: Energy & Utilities
35
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview
35
Latest Updates
35
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Japan 2015-2025)
36
Structural Trends
36
Table: Construction And Social Infrastructure Projects
42
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Japan - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index
43
Rewards
43
Risks
44
APAC Infrastructure RRI: Affirming A Benign 2016 Outlook
44
Table: Asia Risk/Reward Index
52
Market Overview
53
Competitive Landscape
53
Table: Key Financial Company Data
55
Company Profile
57
Kajima
57
J-Power
61
Taisei
65
Methodology
68
Industry Forecast Methodology
68
Sector-Specific Methodology
69
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
73
Sector-Specific Methodology
74
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators
74
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
75

The Japan Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Japan Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Japanese infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Japan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Japanese infrastructure market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Japanese infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Japan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).

Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.

The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).

BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and  demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.