BMI View : Weak economic growth will lead Japan's metal s industry to see minimal growth to 2018 . The country's construction and infrastructure industries will see declining growth by late-2015 after recent expansion, while automotive production will be modest over the coming years. Yet a weaker yen is likely to encourage exports, supporting stable production levels.
Japanese refined metal production and consumption will see minimal growth in the coming years on account of weakening economic fundamentals. Our outlook for Japanese economic growth remains below consensus, as we currently forecast real GDP growth of just 0.9% in 2015. However, recent monetary loosening may boost construction in the shorter term through subdued interest rates, and a weaker yen should support metal exports.
While Japan remains one of the largest producers and consumers of various industrial metals, it faces a declining share of world output and demand, as both China and India expand their global share of production and consumption. Furthermore, we expect global steel prices to remain subdued in 2015 on the back of continued overcapacity, putting pressure on steel producers. Additionally, we believe the positive impact of government stimulus measures in 2013 looks to be wearing off, and with companies facing pressures to hike wages, capital expenditure growth will stall, acting as a further headwind to domestic metal demand.
| Steel Industry To See Subdued Growth |
|Japan - Steel Production & Growth|
| f = BMI forecast. Source: World Steel Association/BMI calculation |
Overall, we expect production of refined metals to outpace growth in demand, leading to an output surplus over the coming years. Indeed, we expect Japan to become a larger net nickel exporter in the coming years. We therefore expect Japan's exports of refined metals to increase, with the primary export market being China, a market we expect to remain reliant on imported metals despite significant production...
The Japan Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by BMI Research's macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Japan.
BMI's Japan Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Japan.
- Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Japan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Japan metals market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Japan through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
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BMI Industry View
A comprehensive summary of the impact and implications of the latest regulatory developments and key forecast indicators covering metals production, consumption and upside/downside risks to our outlook. The Metals SWOT analysis outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Steel: Steel production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
- Aluminium: Aluminium consumption production & balance (‘000 tonnes).
- Copper: Refined copper production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
- Zinc: Refined zinc production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
- Lead: Refined Lead production, consumption & balance (‘000 tonnes).
- Nickel: Refined nickel production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
- Tin: Refined tin production, consumption & balance (‘000 tonnes).
Details of the industry regulatory framework, relevant key legislation and environmental standards that impact the metals industry. The regulatory developments section provides analysis of the overall regulatory burden, the tax regime (including income tax rates), bureaucratic framework, corruption and a country specific political overview. Details of the industry regulatory framework provide information on relevant key legislation and regulations that will impact the metals industry.
Provides in depth coverage and forecasting of steel prices and includes BMI’s core view of what to expect in upcoming months. Within the monthly metals update, BMI provides performance data and key forecasts for select commodities, including prices for aluminium, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, nickel, palladium, platinum, silver, steel (MEPS Carbon Steel), tin and zinc.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses of detailed financial data for key listed metals firms, ranked in order of market cap (USDmn).
Examines the competitive position and short to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects. Details of products and services provide a full overview of each company’s operations.
The Metals Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.