Japan Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Japan Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: We retain our bearish outlook towards Japan's long-term refined fuels and natural gas demand, which we forecast to fall by 7.1% and 3.5% over 2016-2025. This decrease will be a result of the gradual return of nuclear generation in the power sector, efficiency gains in the automotive and shipping sectors, as well as increasing emphasis on alternative energy sources such as renewables and biofuels.

Headline Forecasts (Japan 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: METI, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 17.0 17.0 16.7 16.4 16.2 16.0 15.7
Dry natural gas production, bcm 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 126.5 128.3 129.2 130.8 131.3 131.9 133.3
Refined products production, 000b/d 3,171.3 3,143.7 3,128.0 3,112.4 3,096.8 3,081.3 3,050.5
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 3,396.4 3,173.8 3,142.2 3,111.0 3,080.1 3,055.6 3,025.3
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 55.00 51.00 53.00 55.00 60.00 67.00

Latest Updates A nd Key Forecasts:

  • Challenges in the domestic refining sector will continue to prompt refiners to consolidate operations and rationalise spare capacity. JX Holdings and TonenGeneral are expected to merge by April 2017, while Idemitsu Kosan and Showa Shell are set to follow likewise between October 2016 and April 2017.

  • Following the earlier restart of nuclear reactors by Kyushu Electric Power Company in July 2015, Kansai Electric Power Company received the green light to bring its reactors online at its Takahama and Oi nuclear plants in the Fukui prefecture.

  • Rising fuel efficiency in the transportation and shipping sectors, a gradual resurgence of nuclear energy in the power sector and a government-led promotion of alternative energy sources such as renewables and biofuels, will curtail Japan's refined fuels demand over the long-term - which we forecast to decline by 9.7% over 2016-2025.

  • Proliferation of heavy residue processing units across domestic refineries will allow surplus residual fuel to be converted into much-needed gasoline. This will hit import volumes originating from South Korea, Japan's largest supplier of gasoline.

  • Japan is set to become a net exporter of refined fuels from 2017, buoyed by strong gains in production of higher-value, lighter products such as kerosene and jet fuel. Furthermore, Japan's diesel exports are set to surge over our forecast period. This will be a result of domestic refineries processing crude oil in large amounts to meet demand for gasoline, a process which will also yield unwanted quantities of diesel that must diverted to the exports market.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Japan 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Japan 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Japan 2019-2024)
11
Latest Updates
12
Structural Trends
12
Upstream Production - Oil
13
Table: Oil Production (Japan 2013-2018)
13
Table: Oil Production (Japan 2019-2024)
13
Latest Updates
13
Structural Trends
13
Upstream Production - Gas
15
Table: Gas Production (Japan 2013-2018)
15
Table: Gas Production (Japan 2019-2024)
15
Latest Updates
15
Structural Trends
15
Risks To Outlook
16
Refining
17
Latest Updates
17
Structural Trends
17
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Japan 2013-2018)
19
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (2019 - 2024)
19
Refined Fuels Consumption
20
Latest Updates
20
Structural Trends
20
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Japan 2013-2018)
22
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Japan 2019-2024)
22
Gas Consumption
23
Latest Updates
23
Structural Trends
23
Table: Gas Consumption (Japan 2013-2018)
25
Table: Gas Consumption (Japan 2019-2024)
25
Trade - Oil
25
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
25
Latest Updates
25
Structural Trends
25
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Japan 2013-2018)
26
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Japan 2019-2024)
27
Fuels Trade Forecasts
27
Latest Updates
27
Structural Trends
27
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Japan 2013-2018)
28
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Japan 2019-2024)
29
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
29
Latest Updates
29
Structural Trends
29
Table: Gas Net Exports (Japan 2013-2018)
32
Table: Gas Net Exports (Japan 2019-2024)
32
Industry Risk Reward Index
33
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
33
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
34
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
36
Japan - Risk/Reward Index
38
Japan Upstream Index - Overview
38
Japan Upstream Index - Rewards
38
Japan Upstream Index - Risks
39
Japan Downstream Index - Overview
39
Market Overview
40
Japan Energy Market Overview
40
Overview/State Role
40
Regulatory Regime
40
Fiscal Regime
41
Table: Key Fiscal Indicators
41
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
43
Oil Refineries
43
Table: Refineries In Japan
43
Service Stations
45
Oil Storage Facilities
46
LNG Terminals
46
Table: Operational LNG Terminals In Japan
46
Table: Japanese LNG Terminals Under Construction
49
Table: Proposed Japanese LNG Terminals
49
Oil Terminals/ Ports
49
Gas Storage Facilities
49
Gas Pipelines
50
Competitive Landscape
51
Table: Key Players In Japan's Oil & Gas Sector
53
Company Profile
54
JX Holdings
54
Other Summaries
59
Regional Overview
70
Asia - Weak Oil Prices Will Hit Region's Long-Term O&G Production
70
Glossary
80
Table: Glossary Of Terms
80
Methodology
82
Industry Forecast Methodology
82
Source
84
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
84
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
86
Table: Weighting
87

The Japan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Japan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Japan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Japanese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Japan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Japanese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Japanese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Japan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.