Japan Oil & Gas Report

Published 17 July 2015

  • 117 pages
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$1,295.00
Japan Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Continued push for greater consolidation and efficiency in the refining sector will further reduce Japan's refining capacity through to 2017. T he government's preference to shift to cleaner energy sources - such as nuclear energy and renewables - for power generation , coupled with fuel efficiency gains in the automotive sector, will gradually curb oil and oil products consumption over the next decade . Demand for LNG will remain elevated in the short to medium term as Japan continues to fill in the nuclear void.

Headline Forecasts (Japan 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Petroleum Association of Japan (PAOJ), EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 17.2 17.0 16.8 16.6 16.3 16.1 15.8
Dry natural gas production, bcm 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 125.8 126.5 128.3 129.2 130.8 131.3 131.9
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 3,531.0 3,095.6 3,101.8 3,108.0 3,114.2 3,120.5 3,126.7
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 3,657.7 3,511.6 3,476.7 3,442.1 3,407.8 3,373.9 3,347.1

The main trends and developments we highlight for Japan's oil & gas sector are:

  • Japan's refining capacity fell by 400,000b/d following the introduction of a law on heavy residue cracking. This will cut Japan's refining capacity to 3.9mn b/d in 2015, down over 1mn b/d from the early 2000s. BMI believes that this will fall even further to 3.7mn b/d by 2017.

  • Government policy appears to be intentionally pushing for industry consolidation, as 'operational alliances with other refiners' is one of the factors that refiners will be assessed on to determine if they have met government standards.

  • The reduction in refining capacity will see a gradual cutback in Japan's crude oil imports over the next decade, which we...

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Japan 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil And Gas Reserves (Japan 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil And Gas Reserves (Japan 2019-2024)
11
Upstream Production - Oil
13
Table: Oil Production (Japan 2013-2018)
13
Table: Oil Production (Japan 2019-2024)
13
Upstream Production - Gas
16
Table: Gas Production (Japan 2013-2018)
16
Table: Gas Production (Japan 2019-2024)
16
Refining
19
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Japan 2013-2018)
19
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Japan 2019-2024)
19
Refined Fuels Consumption
23
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Japan 2013-2018)
23
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Japan 2019-2024)
23
Gas Consumption
27
Table: Gas Consumption (Japan 2013-2018)
27
Table: Gas Consumption (Japan 2019-2024)
27
Trade - Oil
30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Japan 2013-2018)
30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Japan 2019-2024)
30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Japan 2013-2018)
31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Japan 2019-2024)
32
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude And Products (Japan 2013-2018)
34
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude And Products (Japan 2019-2024)
34
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Japan 2013-2018)
35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Japan 2019-2024)
35
Industry Risk Reward Index
40
Table: Asia: Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
40
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Sustained Low Oil Prices Weaken Production Outlook
41
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
41
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Political Uncertainties Undercut Demand Growth Outlook
44
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
44
Japan - Risk/Reward Index
47
Japan Upstream Index - Overview
47
Japan Upstream Index - Rewards
47
Japan Upstream Index - Risks
47
Japan Downstream Index - Overview
47
Market Overview
49
Japan Energy Market Overview
49
Overview/State Role
50
Regulatory Regime
50
Fiscal Regime
51
Table: Key Fiscal Indicators
51
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
52
Oil Refineries
52
Table: Refineries In Japan
52
Service Stations
54
Oil Storage Facilities
55
LNG Terminals
55
Table: Operational LNG Terminals In Japan
55
Table: Japanese LNG Terminals Under Construction
58
Table: Proposed Japanese LNG Terminals
58
Oil Terminals/ Ports
58
Gas Storage Facilities
58
Gas Pipelines
59
Competitive Landscape
60
Competitive Landscape Summary
60
Table: Key Players In Japan's Oil & Gas Sector
62
Company Profile
63
JX Holdings
63
Other Summaries
67
Regional Overview
78
Asia Oil And Gas Regional Overview
78
Global Industry Overview
83
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
83
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
86
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
87
Appendix
89
Asia - Regional Appendix
89
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
89
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
90
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
91
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
92
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
93
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
94
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
95
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
96
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
97
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
98
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
99
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
100
Japan - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
101
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption And Net Exports (Japan 2013-2018)
101
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption And Net Exports (Japan 2019-2024)
102
Japan - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
103
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Japan 2013-2018)
103
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Japan 2019-2024)
104
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Japan 2013-2018)
105
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Japan 2019-2024)
106
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Japan 2013-2018)
108
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Japan 2019-2024)
109
Glossary
110
Table: Glossary Of Terms
110
Methodology
112
Industry Forecast Methodology
112
Source
114
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
114
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
116
Table: Weighting
117

The Japan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Japan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Japan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Japanese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Japan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Japanese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Japanese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Japan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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