Japan Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
×

Sign up to download the Japan Oil & Gas Report

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

You will shortly receive your free executive summary by email.

Japan Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: While it will continue to remain a global refining powerhouse, aggressive cutbacks in refining capacity and a gradual shift away from oil-based fuels will weigh on Japan's r efined fuels exports in the long run. Japan will remain the largest LNG buyer in the world through to 2025, though the risk of an LNG oversupply domestically is pertinent due to the rise of alternative energy sources such as nuclear, coal and renewables energy , which will erode gas' share in the total power mix and drag on overall demand.

Headline Forecasts (Japan 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: METI, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 17.0 16.9 16.7 16.4 16.2 15.9 15.7
Refined products production, 000b/d 3,171.4 3,154.9 3,249.5 3,233.3 3,217.1 3,201.0 3,169.0
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 3,126.4 3,228.4 3,293.0 3,326.0 3,292.9 3,266.6 3,234.1
Dry natural gas production, bcm 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 134.3 128.8 126.2 124.9 123.7 122.4 121.2
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 46.50 57.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

  • Despite boasting world-class capability, the Japanese refining sector is vulnerable to further consolidation and capacity cuts as the government seeks to reduce overcapacity and improve the sector's efficiency. Mergers of the country's largest refiners are imminent, with JX Holdings and TonenGeneral expected to merge by April 2017, while Idemitsu Kosan and Showa Shell are set to follow likewise between October 2016 and April 2017.

  • Difficulties with restarting Japan's currently shut nuclear reactors will see the country increasingly rely on coal and renewables energy, eroding LNG share in the total power mix. In July 2016, the Otsu district court rejected Kansai Electric's rejection of a March injunction which ordered the firm to shut down its No.3 and No.4 nuclear reactors at its Takahama plant.

  • The Japanese Fair Trade Commission (FTC) has launched an investigation to determine whether destination clauses contained within existing long-term LNG contracts with international suppliers violate domestic competition laws. If found so, it could see Japan step-up efforts to renegotiate existing contract terms.

  • Japan will remain a major exporter of various light-to-middle distillates throughout our forecast period to 2025, though large import requirement for LPG and petrochemicals will see it remain a net importer of refined fuels.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Japan 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Latest Updates
10
Structural Trends
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Japan 2014-2019)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Japan 2020-2025)
11
Upstream Projects
12
Table: Japan - Key Upstream Projects
12
Upstream Production - Oil
12
Latest Updates
12
Structural Trends
12
Table: Oil Production (Japan 2014-2019)
14
Table: Oil Production (Japan 2020-2025)
14
Upstream Production - Gas
15
Latest Updates
15
Structural Trends
15
Table: Gas Production (Japan 2014-2019)
17
Table: Gas Production (Japan 2020-2025)
17
Refining
18
Latest Updates
18
Structural Trends
18
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Japan 2014-2019)
20
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Japan 2020-2025)
20
Refined Fuels Consumption
21
Latest Updates
21
Structural Trends
21
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Japan 2014-2019)
23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Japan 2020-2025)
23
Gas Consumption
24
Latest Updates
24
Structural Trends
24
Table: Gas Consumption (Japan 2014-2019)
26
Table: Gas Consumption (Japan 2020-2025)
26
Trade - Oil
27
Crude Oil Trade: Latest Updates
27
Crude Oil Trade: Structural Trends
27
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Japan 2014-2019)
28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Japan 2020-2025)
29
Fuels Trade: Latest Updates
29
Fuels Trade: Structural Trends
29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Japan 2014-2019)
30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Japan 2020-2025)
31
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
32
Latest Updates
32
Structural Trends
32
Table: Gas Net Exports (Japan 2014-2019)
35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Japan 2020-2025)
36
Industry Risk/Reward Index
37
Japan - Risk/Reward Index
37
Japan Upstream Index - Overview
37
Japan Downstream Index - Overview
38
Industry Risk Reward Index
39
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
40
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Production Cuts Reinforce Bearish Outlook
41
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
42
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Refinery Developments Lift Scores For Malaysia And The Philippines
43
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
44
Market Overview
45
Japan Energy Market Overview
45
Regulatory Structure
45
Fiscal Regime
46
Table: Key Fiscal Indicators
46
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
47
Oil Refineries
47
Table: Refineries In Japan
47
Service Stations
48
Oil Storage Facilities
49
LNG Terminals
49
Table: LNG Import Terminals In Japan
49
Oil Terminals/Ports
51
Gas Storage Facilities
51
Gas Pipelines
51
Competitive Landscape
52
Table: Key Players In Japan's Oil & Gas Sector
53
Regional Overview
54
Asia Regional Overview
54
Glossary
62
Table: Glossary Of Terms
62
Methodology
64
Industry Forecast Methodology
64
Source
66
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
66
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
68
Table: Weighting
69

The Japan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Japan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Japan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Japanese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Japan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Japanese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Japanese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Japan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.