Japan Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
×

Sign up to download the Japan Oil & Gas Report

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

You will shortly receive your free executive summary by email.

Japan Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Slow economic growth, negative demographic trends and the growing prominence of nuclear and renewables energy will curtail Japan's long-term consumption of refined fuels and LNG . The a ggressive government-led consolidation drive in the refining sector poses significant downside risk to our refining capacity forecasts, though improving run rates and more flexible production slates will allow Japan to see a small surplus in refined fuels from 2016.

Headline Forecasts (Japan 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: METI, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 17.0 16.9 16.7 16.4 16.2 15.9 15.7
Dry natural gas production, bcm 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 134.3 128.8 126.2 124.9 123.7 122.4 121.2
Refined products production, 000b/d 3,171.4 3,154.9 3,139.1 3,123.4 3,107.8 3,092.2 3,061.3
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 3,396.4 3,171.8 3,140.3 3,109.0 3,078.1 3,053.7 3,023.3
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 40.00 53.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

  • The government-led consolidation drive in the refining sector will see four of Japan's five largest refineries merge operations in the coming years. JX Holdings and TonenGeneral are expected to merge by April 2017, while Idemitsu Kosan and Showa Shell are set to follow likewise between October 2016 and April 2017.

  • Japan's nuclear restarts continue to progress at a gradual rate, amid strong public opposition. In March 2016, the Otsu district order issued an injunction to halt operations at Kansai Electric's No.3 and No.4 nuclear reactors, while in April 2016, the Fukuoka court upheld a previous ruling to allow Kyushu Electric's Sendai No.1 and No.2 reactors to continue to operate.

  • LNG imports will continue its downslide over the next 10 years, as slower economic growth, negative demographic trends and rising prominence of alternative energy sources weigh on demand. We forecast net LNG imports to fall by 8.9% over 2016-2025.

  • Slower domestic demand growth will be unmatched by improving run rates at existing refineries, which will allow Japan to become a small net exporter of refined fuels from this year. This will negatively affect the likes of South Korea, India, Malaysia and the Middle East, which are Japan's largest suppliers of refined fuels.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Japan 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Latest Updates
10
Structural Trends
10
Table: Proven Oil And Gas Reserves (Japan 2014-2019)
11
Table: Proven Oil And Gas Reserves (Japan 2020-2025)
11
Upstream Projects
12
Table: Japan - Key Upstream Projects
12
Upstream Production - Oil
12
Latest Updates
12
Structural Trends
12
Table: Oil Production (Japan 2014-2019)
14
Table: Oil Production (Japan 2020-2025)
14
Upstream Production - Gas
14
Latest Updates
14
Structural Trends
14
Risks To Outlook
15
Table: Gas Production (Japan 2014-2019)
16
Table: Gas Production (Japan 2020-2025)
16
Refining
16
Latest Updates
16
Structural Trends
16
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Japan 2014-2019)
18
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (2020-2025)
18
Refined Fuels Consumption
19
Latest Updates
19
Structural Trends
19
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Japan 2014-2019)
21
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Japan 2020-2025)
21
Gas Consumption
22
Latest Updates
22
Structural Trends
22
Table: Gas Consumption (Japan 2015-2019)
24
Table: Gas Consumption (Japan 2020-2025)
24
Trade - Oil
24
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
24
Latest Updates
24
Structural Trends
24
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Japan 2014-2019)
25
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Japan 2020-2025)
26
Fuels Trade Forecasts
26
Latest Updates
26
Structural Trends
26
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Japan 2014-2019)
27
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Japan 2020-2025)
28
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
28
Latest Updates
28
Structural Trends
28
Table: Gas Net Exports (Japan 2014-2019)
31
Table: Gas Net Exports (Japan 2020-2025)
31
Industry Risk Reward Index
32
Asia - Risk/Reward Index
32
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Persistent Oil Price Weakness Underpins Bearish Outlook
33
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
33
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Projection For Weaker Economic Growth Undermines India's Scores
36
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
36
Japan - Risk/Reward Index
38
Japan Upstream Index - Overview
38
Japan Upstream Index - Rewards
38
Japan Upstream Index - Risk
38
Japan Downstream Index - Overview
39
Market Overview
40
Japan Energy Market Overview
40
Overview/State Role
40
Regulatory Structure
40
Fiscal Regime
41
Table: Key Fiscal Indicators
41
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
43
Oil Refineries
43
Table: Refineries In Japan
43
Service Stations
44
Oil Storage Facilities
45
LNG Terminals
45
Table: LNG Import Terminals In Japan
45
Oil Terminals/ Ports
47
Gas Storage Facilities
47
Gas Pipelines
47
Competitive Landscape
48
Table: Key Players In Japan's Oil & Gas Sector
50
Company Profile
51
JX Holdings
51
Other Summaries
56
Regional Overview
67
Industry Trend Analysis
67
Glossary
75
Table: Glossary Of Terms
75
Methodology
77
Industry Forecast Methodology
77
Source
79
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
79
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
81
Table: Weighting
82

The Japan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Japan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Japan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Japanese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Japan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Japanese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Japanese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Japan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.