Japan Oil & Gas Report

Published 30 January 2015

  • 137 pages
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$1,295.00
Japan Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: New legislation intended to streamline the refining sector saw around 400,000 barrels per day (b/d) of Japan's refining capacity taken offline and further closures are likely. Favourable terms for joint ventures will see the downstream sector consolidate further and give companies more purchasing power. We forecast weak refined product demand to offer limited future prospects for the sector. In the long term we forecast up to 50% of nuclear plants to return to the grid with first nuclear restarts due in 2015, but the demand for LNG will remain elevated. The increase in LNG purchases also reflects higher consumption by the power sector. In the short term, demand for LNG will remain steady as Japan continues to fill in the nuclear void.

Headline Forecasts (Japan 2013-2019)
2013e 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI/EIA
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 17.2 17.0 16.8 16.6 16.3 16.1 15.8
Dry natural gas production, bcm 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 122.1 123.3 123.6 123.4 123.1 122.7 122.3
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 3,435.7 3,435.7 3,442.6 3,449.5 3,456.4 3,463.3 3,470.2
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 4,533.3 4,352.2 4,308.9 4,265.9 4,223.4 4,181.4 4,148.1

The main trends and developments we highlight for Japan's oil and gas sector are:

  • Japan's refining capacity fell by 400,000 barrels per day (b/d) following the introduction of a law on heavy residue cracking. This will cut Japan's refining capacity to 3.94mn b/d, down over 1mn b/d from the early 2000s. BMI believes that this will fall even further to 3.75mn b/d by 2017.

  • Government policy appears to be intentionally pushing for industry consolidation, as 'operational alliances with other refiners' is one of the factors that refiners...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Japan 2012-2018)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Japan 2012-2017)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Japan 2018-2023)
11
Upstream Production - Oil
13
Table: Oil Production (Japan 2012-2017)
13
Table: Oil Production (Japan 2018-2023)
13
Upstream Production - Gas
16
Table: Gas Production (Japan 2012-2017)
16
Table: Gas Production (Japan 2018-2023)
16
Refining
19
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Japan 2012-2017)
19
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Japan 2018-2023)
19
Refined Fuels Consumption
22
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Japan 2012-2017)
22
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Japan 2018-2023)
22
Gas Consumption
26
Table: Gas Consumption (Japan 2012-2017)
26
Table: Gas Consumption (Japan 2018-2023)
26
Trade - Oil
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Japan 2012-2017)
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Japan 2018-2023)
29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Japan 2012-2017)
32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Japan 2018-2023)
32
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Japan 2012-2017)
33
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Japan 2018-2023)
34
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Japan 2012-2017)
35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Japan 2018-2023)
35
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
40
Japan - Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Japan Upstream Rating - Overview
40
Japan Upstream Rating - Rewards
40
Japan Upstream Rating - Risks
40
Japan Downstream Rating - Overview
40
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
42
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
42
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Resource-Rich Countries Hit By State Involvement
45
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
47
Downstream Support
47
Market Overview
50
Japan Energy Market Overview
50
Table: Key Japanese Refiners
51
Overview/State Role
51
Licensing And Regulation
51
Government Policy
52
International Energy Relations
52
Table: US LNG Supply Contracts To Japan
55
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
56
Oil Refineries
56
Table: Refineries In Japan
56
Service Stations
58
Oil Storage Facilities
58
LNG Terminals
59
Table: Operational LNG Terminals In Japan
60
Table: Japanese LNG Terminals Under Construction
62
Table: Proposed Japanese LNG Terminals
63
Oil Terminals/ Ports
63
Gas Storage Facilities
63
Gas Pipelines
63
Competitive Landscape
65
Competitive Landscape Summary
65
Table: Key Players In Japan's Oil & Gas Sector
66
Company Profile
67
JX Holdings
67
Other Summaries
72
Regional Overview
83
Asia Overview
83
Slower Oil Consumption Growth
83
Significant Oil Importer Still
85
Tightening In The Downstream
87
Gas Demand Growth To Outshine Oil
90
Gas Production And Export Rise
90
Asia To Absorb Gas Export Growth
92
A Hot Market For LNG
94
Strategies To Lower LNG Prices
97
Sino-Russian Gas Deal Promises Softer Prices
98
Global Industry Overview
99
Global Energy Market Overview
99
Appendix
105
Japan - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
105
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Japan 2012-2017)
105
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Japan 2018-2023)
105
Japan - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
106
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Japan 2012-2017)
106
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Japan 2018-2023)
107
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Japan 2012-2017)
108
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Japan 2018-2023)
109
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Japan 2012-2017)
111
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Japan 2018-2023)
111
Asia - Regional Appendix
112
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
112
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
113
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
114
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
115
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
116
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
117
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
117
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
118
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
119
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
120
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
121
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
122
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels and Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
123
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2012-2017
123
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
124
Glossary
126
Table: Glossary Of Terms
126
Methodology
128
Industry Forecast Methodology
128
Source
130
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
130
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
132
Table: Weighting
133

The Japan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Japan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Japan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Japanese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Japan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Japanese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Japanese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Japan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc