Japan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 12 August 2015

  • 140 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Japan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Japan's delayed entry into the medical tourism industry will see the country facing significant headwinds in developing the sector. Leading medical tourism hubs in the Asia Pacific region, such as Malaysia and Thailand, have already firmly established their sectors, offering medical treatments at a significantly lower cost. Moreover, Japan faces distinct challenges, including the country's considerable distance from the growing South East Asia markets and the limited inclusion of medical tourism in the business plans of the country's healthcare providers.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: JPY11,239bn (USD106bn) in 2014 to JPY11,490bn (USD95bn) by 2015 with a year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 2.2% in local currency terms and -10.5% in USD terms. The contraction in the US dollar amount is due to the strengthening of the dollar against the yen.

  • Healthcare: JPY50,277bn (USD475bn) in 2014 to JPY51,305bn (USD424bn) in 2015 with a y-o-y growth of 2.0% in local currency terms and-10.7% in USD terms. Healthcare spending revised downwards due to new data from the World Health Organization. The lower US dollar amount is driven by the weakening of the yen against the dollar.

Risk/Reward Index

Japan's continues to be ranked as the most attractive region according to our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index, scoring 73.3 out of 100 in Q415, significantly ahead of peers such as Australia (65.8) and South Korea (66.2) as well as the region's average at 52.4. This is driven by the country's high market expenditure scoring (18.0 out of 20.0) as well as a high spending per capita score of (10.8 out of 12.0). However, dragging down the country's score includes a declining population (population growth score of 1.0 out of 5.0). In addition, we highlight that the country's score has been lowered due to the weakness in the Japanese Yen, which translates into a lower value returns in US dollars.

Key Trends And Developments

  • In July 2015, local news...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2011-2019)
16
Healthcare Market Forecast
18
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2011-2019)
19
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2011-2019)
20
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2011-2019)
20
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2011-2019)
22
Patented Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2011-2019)
24
Generic Drug Market Forecast
25
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2011-2019)
27
Over The Counter Medicine Market
28
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2011-2019)
31
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
32
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Japan 2013-2019)
33
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Japan 2013-2019)
34
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
34
Macroeconomic Forecasts
35
Economic Analysis
35
Table: Economic Activity (Japan 2010-2019)
40
Industry Risk Reward Indices
41
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward - Q4 2015
41
Japan Risk/Reward Index
47
Rewards
47
Risks
47
Market Overview
49
Industry Trends And Developments
50
Epidemiology
50
Table: Estimated Number Of New Cases Of Cancer In Japan
51
Table: Japan: Dementia Cases And Types Across Different Areas
52
Healthcare Sector
53
Table: Healthcare Resources (Japan 2009-2014)
54
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Japan 2009-2014)
54
Table: Healthcare Activity (Japan 2009-2014)
55
Clinical Trials
55
Regulatory Development
61
Regulatory Regime
61
Table: OTC Drug Categories In Japan
64
Table: Prescription-To-OTC Switches In Japan (2000-2012)
65
Table: NCEs Approved by Origin, 2000-2010
69
Table: Timeline Of NHI Drug List Price Cuts In Japan, 1992-2010
69
Competitive Landscape
72
Research-Based Industry
72
Table: Companies Represented By The JPMA
72
Generic Drug Industry
73
Table: Members Of The Japan Generic Medicines Association (JGA)
74
Pharmaceutical Wholesale
74
Pharmaceutical Retail
76
Company Profile
78
Astellas
78
AstraZeneca
83
Daiichi Sankyo
87
Eisai
91
GlaxoSmithKline
97
Merck & Co
101
Mitsubishi Tanabe
104
Novartis
107
Pfizer
112
Sanofi
116
Sawai Pharmaceutical
120
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company
123
Demographic Forecast
128
Demographic Outlook
128
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Japan 1990-2025)
129
Table: Key Population Ratios (Japan 1990-2025)
129
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Japan 1990-2025)
130
Table: Population By Age Group (Japan 1990-2025)
130
Table: Population By Age Group % (Japan 1990-2025)
131
Glossary
133
Methodology
135
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
135
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
135
Notes On Methodology
136
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
137
Index Overview
138
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
138
Indicator Weightings
139

The Japan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Japan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Japan pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Japan, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Japanese pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Japanese pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Japan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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