BMI View: Competition in the Japanese biosimilar market is set to intensify over the coming years. Fundamentals attracting drugmakers into this field include its relatively nascent state, with few biosimilars launched thus far, cost containment pressures and well-defined regulations that will facilitate market entry. We expect branding to be a key differentiator in this medicine class, as it will require pharmaceutical firms to actively engage stakeholders, especially doctors.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: JPY11.5trn (USD94.9bn) in 2015 to JPY11.7trn (USD109.7bn) by 2016 with a y-o-y growth of 2.2% in local currency terms and 15.6% in USD terms. Local currency f orecast unchanged from last quarter , though a strengthening of the yen has shifted US dollar values.
Healthcare: JPY50.8trn (USD419.4bn) in 2015 to JPY51.7trn (USD482.9bn) in 2016 with a y-o-y growth of 1.8% in local currency terms and 15.1% in USD terms. The US dollar amount remains volatile and will be contingent on the Bank of Japan's decision to weaken the currency having recently implemented negative interest rates.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency (PDMA), Japan Self-Medication Industry (JSMI), The Association of the European Self-Medication Industry (AESGP), local companies, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||106.160||94.930||109.700||114.190||113.770||114.410||114.990|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||2.31||2.30||2.33||2.33||2.31||2.28||2.25|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||22.5||22.6||22.7||22.8||22.9||22.9||23.0|
|Health spending, USDbn||470.980||419.390||482.890||500.930||497.660||499.130||500.620|
Japan continues to be ranked as the most attractive country in the region according to our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI), scoring 80.6 out of 100 in Q416, significantly ahead of peers such as Australia (64.8) and South Korea (64.8) as well as the region's average at 52.4. This is driven by the country's high market expenditure scoring (18.0 out of 20.0) as well as a high spending per capita score of (12 out of 12.0). However, dragging down the country's score includes a declining population (population growth score of 1.0 out of 5.0).
In July 2016, Daiichi Sankyo announced an exclusive agreement with Amgen to commercialise nine biosimilars in Japan. This includes several biosimilars currently in late stage development and includes the biosimilars of adalimumab, bevacizumab and trastuzumab. Under the terms of the agreement, Amgen will be responsible for development and manufacturing while Daiichi Sankyo will file for marketing approval and be responsible for distribution and commercialisation in Japan.
That same month, local news sources report that Japan-based drugmakers are looking to sell off-patent, established pharmaceutical products in a bid to generate funds to invest into new therapies or business lines. Firms identified include Astellas Pharma and Shionogi.
July also saw the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare announcing an interim report for the implementation of a large scale medical database called MID-NET. Scheduled for FY2018, the report specified its use for post marketing surveillance.
BMI Economic View
The recent rise in the yen has seen inflation expectations fall markedly. However, we continue to see medium term inflation pressures rising as the Bank of Japan is forced to further expand its easing measures, leading to an acceleration in money supply growth, which is already growing at a solid pace.
BMI Political View
While the final results are still being confirmed, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito coalition looks set to perform solidly in the July 10 upper house elections, despite growing criticisms of the government. A clear coalition victory would reignite Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's 'Abenomics' reform programme, although Abe's advocacy of constitutional reform will remain highly divisive over the medium term.
The Japan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Japan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Japan pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Japan, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Japanese pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Japanese pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Japan.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.