BMI View: There will be opportunities for haemophilia products within the Japan pharmaceutical market. The country has the third largest population of haemophilia patients in Asia, high levels of adherence and an extensive health insurance coverage that significantly lowers financial barriers to high-value treatments. Correspondingly, these factors have seen high levels of company activity in Japan, which will demand that firms offer differentiated treatments to effectively compete in the country.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: JPY11.5trn (USD94.9bn) in 2015 to JPY11.7trn (USD101.6bn) by 2016 with a y-o-y growth of 2.2% in local currency terms and -7.1% in USD terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.
Healthcare: JPY50trn (USD419bn) in 2015 to JPY51trn (USD461bn) in 2016 with a y-o-y growth of 1.8% in local currency terms and 10% in USD terms. Forecast revised downwards due to new data from the World Health Organization. The US dollar amount remains volatile and will be contingent on the Bank of Japan's decision to weaken the currency having recently implemented negative interest rates.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency (PDMA), Japan Self-Medication Industry (JSMI), The Association of the European Self-Medication Industry (AESGP), local companies, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||106.160||94.930||104.800||105.990||107.670||109.350||111.000|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||2.31||2.30||2.33||2.32||2.30||2.27||2.24|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||22.5||22.6||22.7||22.8||22.9||22.9||23.0|
|Health spending, USDbn||470.980||419.390||461.330||464.970||470.980||477.070||483.260|
Japan continues to be ranked as the most attractive country in the region according to our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI), scoring 79.4 out of 100 in Q316, significantly ahead of peers such as Australia (64.8) and South Korea (65.2) as well as the region's average at 52.3. This is driven by the country's high market expenditure scoring (18.0 out of 20.0) as well as a high spending per capita score of (12 out of 12.0). However, dragging down the country's score includes a declining population (population growth score of 1.0 out of 5.0).
In April 2016, local news sources reported that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is considering splitting up the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. This was a view noted by Keiichiro Tachibana, the LDP House of Representatives lawmaker who heads a subcommittee on economic and fiscal visions for the post 2020 era.
That same month, Sun Pharmaceutical announced the acquisition of 14 established prescription brands from Novartis for USD 293mn. Under the terms of agreement, the acquired brands will be marketed by a local marketing partner under the Sun Pharmaceutical label.
Several multinational pharmaceutical firms noted that they could cut research spending in Japan due to new rules requiring a reduction in the prices of top-selling pharmaceuticals. Patrick Johnson, Chief Executive of Eli Lilly in Japan, noted that 'without stability and predictability in drug prices, investments will go elsewhere'.
BMI Economic View
We remain convinced that the Bank of Japan and the government's inflationary policies are compounding the woes of the economy, rather than improving the growth outlook, and that there is little likelihood of these policies being pared back anytime soon. As such, a sustainable recovery is a long way off, and we caution that the weakness may be only just beginning.
BMI Political View
The merger of the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) with the smaller Japan Innovation Party (JIP) to form the Democratic Party on March 26 poses a medium-term threat to the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Despite the Democratic Party's lack of popular support at present, they could be set to capitalise on growing frustration with the LDP's economic stewardship.
The Japan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Japan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Japan pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Japan, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Japanese pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Japanese pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Japan.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.