BMI View: Japanese pharmaceutical firms will be forced to adapt their business model to accommodate the changing domestic medicine landscape. With the market share of generic drugs expected to grow in line with government incentives, Japan-based drugmakers will see revenues from long-listed products come under increasing pressure. For research-based firms, innovation will become the key to navigate this business environment which necessitates a focus on core competencies.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: JPY11.5trn (USD94.9bn) in 2015 to JPY11.7trn (USD101.6bn) by 2016 with a y-o-y growth of 2.2% in local currency terms and -7.1% in USD terms.
Healthcare: JPY51.3trn (USD432.8bn) in 2015 to JPY52.3trn (USD439.7bn) in 2016 with a y-o-y growth of 2.0% in local currency terms and 1.6% in USD terms. Healthcare spending revised downwards due to new data from the World Health Organization. The lower US dollar amount is driven by the weakening of the yen against the dollar.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency, Japan Self-Medication Industry, The Association of the European Self-Medication Industry, local companies, World Health Organization, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||106.137||96.959||98.637||99.092||99.513||101.577||103.621|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||2.30||2.30||2.30||2.27||2.25||2.22||2.18|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||22.4||22.4||22.4||22.5||22.5||22.5||22.5|
|Health spending, USDbn||474.707||432.805||439.687||441.121||442.655||451.510||460.520|
Japan continues to be ranked as the most attractive country in the region according to our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI), scoring 75.6 out of 100 in Q216, significantly ahead of peers such as Australia (66) and South Korea (65.2) as well as the region's average at 52.3. This is driven by the country's high market expenditure as well as high spending per capita. However, dragging down the country's score includes a declining population. In addition, we highlight that the country's score has been lowered due to the weakness in the Japanese yen, which translates into a lower value returns in US dollars.
In December 2015, the Japan Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Association noted its opposition to a new special re-pricing rule set to be implemented in April 2016. Under the proposed rule, a product will face a price cut of up 25% to 50% depending on the category it falls into.
That same month, Japan's Ministry of Finance noted that the drug price cuts scheduled for April 2016 will save a total of JPY174bn (USD1.4bn) in expenditures.
December 2015 also saw the government noting that it plans to cut medical treatment fees by 0.84% in its fiscal 2016 budget. However, medical service fees by 0.49% which will go to doctors, pharmacists and medical workers.
BMI Economic View
Our real GDP growth forecast of 0.6%, compared with consensus expectations of 1.1%, reflects our bearish view on external demand amid a continued unravelling of the Chinese economy and renewed recession risks in the US, which look set to compound domestic structural economic woes. That said, lower energy prices pose upside risks to growth, should businesses use windfall profits to boost investment.
BMI Political View
Japan's July 2016 Upper House elections will be crucial for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. If the ruling coalition secures a two-thirds majority, it will press ahead with a controversial constitutional amendment that would further expand Japan's military profile and de-prioritise economic reforms.
The Japan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Japan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Japan pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Japan, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Japanese pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Japanese pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Japan.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.