Japan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 09 February 2015

  • 157 pages
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$1,295.00
Japan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Japan's healthcare system will come under increasing financial strain due to the ageing population and the high use of patented medicines. This provides an impetus for the government to use cost containment measures including policies to encourage the uptake of generic drug medicines, posing a downside risk for R&D-based pharmaceutical companies

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: JPY11,239bn (USD107bn) in 2014 to JPY11,490bn (USD96bn) by 2015 with a year-on-year growth of 2.2% in local currency terms and -10.5% in USD terms. The contraction in the US dollar amount is due to the strengthening of the dollar against the yen.

  • Healthcare: JPY50,661bn (USD482bn) in 2014 to JPY52,266bn (USD436bn) in 2015 with a year-on-year growth of 3.2% in local currency terms and-9.7% in USD terms. The lower US dollar amount is driven by the weakening of the yen against the dollar.

Risk/Reward Index

Japan's continues to be ranked as the most attractive region according to our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index, scoring 74.5 out of 100 in Q215, significantly ahead of peers such as Australia (67) and South Korea (66.2) as well as the region's average at 52.9. This is driven by the country's high market expenditure scoring (18.0 out of 20.0) as well as a high spending per capita score of (10.8 out of 12.0). However, dragging down the country's score includes a declining population (population growth score of 1.0 out of 5.0). In addition, we highlight that the country's score has been lowered from Q115 due to the weakness in the Japanese Yen, which translates into a lower value returns in US dollars.

Key Trends And Developments

  • In January 2015, the Ministry of Health Labour and Welfare unveiled draft plans to reform the country's health insurance programme. Scheduled to be implemented from the fiscal year of 2015 through to 2018, these reforms include abolishing in principle special measures that lower the health insurance premium payments for...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
10
Economic
11
Industry Forecast
12
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
12
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
14
Healthcare Market Forecast
14
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
16
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
16
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
16
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
17
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
18
Patented Drug Market Forecast
18
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
20
Generic Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
24
Over The Counter Medicine Market
24
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
28
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Japan 2012-2018)
30
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Japan 2012-2018)
30
Other Healthcare Data
30
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
32
Macroeconomic Forecasts
33
Economic Analysis
33
Table: Economic Activity (Japan 2009-2018)
35
Industry Risk Reward Index
36
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Index
36
Japan Risk/Reward Index
42
Rewards
42
Risks
43
Market Overview
44
Industry Trends And Developments
46
Epidemiology
46
Healthcare Sector
49
Clinical Trials
50
Regulatory Development
53
Regulatory Regime
53
Table: OTC Drug Categories In Japan
56
Table: Prescription-To-OTC Switches In Japan (2000-2012)
56
Table: NCEs Approved by Origin, 2000-2010
61
Table: Timeline Of NHI Drug List Price Cuts In Japan, 1992-2010
61
Competitive Landscape
64
Pharmaceutical Sector
64
Table: Top 15 Pharmaceutical Companies According To Market Capitalisation On The Tokyo Stock Exchange
65
Foreign Generic Industry
66
Pharmaceutical Wholesale
67
Pharmaceutical Retail
68
Company Profile
82
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company
82
Astellas
90
Eisai
98
Daiichi Sankyo
105
Mitsubishi Tanabe
112
Sawai Pharmaceutical
115
Pfizer
118
Sanofi
122
Merck & Co
126
Novartis
130
GlaxoSmithKline
135
AstraZeneca
139
Demographic Forecast
143
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Japan 1990-2025)
144
Table: Key Population Ratios (Japan 1990-2025)
144
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Japan 1990-2025)
146
Table: Population By Age Group (Japan 1990-2025)
146
Table: Population By Age Group % (Japan 1990-2025)
147
Glossary
148
Methodology
150
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
150
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
150
Notes On Methodology
151
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
152
Index Overview
153
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
153
Indicator Weightings
154

The Japan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Japan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Japan pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Japan, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Japanese pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Japanese pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Japan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc