Japan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 06 May 2015

  • 154 pages
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$1,295.00
Japan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: The Japanese pharmaceutical market will become increasingly challenging for multinational drugmakers. This comes as the use of generic drugs has begun to gain momentum, creating a more competitive environment for innovative medicines. In addition, top line growth for foreign-based multinational drugmakers will be further challenged by the depreciation of the yen, which will remain weak under the country's 'Abenomics' economic initiative.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: JPY11,239bn (USD106bn) in 2014 to JPY11,490bn (USD99bn) by 2015 with a year-on-year growth of 2.2% in local currency terms and -9% in USD terms. The contraction in the US dollar amount is due to the strengthening of the dollar against the yen.

  • Healthcare: JPY50,395bn (USD476bn) in 2014 to JPY51,535bn (USD433bn) in 2015 with a year-on-year growth of 2.3% in local currency terms and-9% in USD terms. Healthcare spending revised downwards due to new data from the World Health Organization. The lower US dollar amount is driven by the weakening of the yen against the dollar.

Risk/Reward Index

Japan's continues to be ranked as the most attractive region according to our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index, scoring 73.3 out of 100 in Q315, significantly ahead of peers such as Australia (65.8) and South Korea (68.6) as well as the region's average at 52.7. This is driven by the country's high market expenditure scoring (18.0 out of 20.0) as well as a high spending per capita score of (10.8 out of 12.0). However, dragging down the country's score includes a declining population (population growth score of 1.0 out of 5.0). In addition, we highlight that the country's score has been lowered from Q115 due to the weakness in the Japanese Yen, which translates into a lower value returns in US dollars.

Key Trends And Developments

  • In April 2015, Japanese lawmakers disclosed that the country's medical and nursing costs is estimated to rise to JPY4.0trn (USD33.5bn) over the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2011-2019)
16
Healthcare Market Forecast
17
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2011-2019)
19
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2011-2019)
20
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2011-2019)
21
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2011-2019)
23
Patented Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2011-2019)
25
Generic Drug Market Forecast
25
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2011-2019)
28
Over The Counter Medicine Market
29
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2011-2019)
32
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
32
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Japan 2013-2019)
34
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Japan 2013-2019)
35
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
35
Macroeconomic Forecasts
36
Industry Risk Reward Index
39
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Index
39
Japan Risk/Reward Index
45
Rewards
45
Risks
45
Market Overview
47
Industry Trends And Developments
48
Epidemiology
48
Table: Estimated Number Of New Cases Of Cancer In Japan
49
Table: Japan: Dementia Cases And Types Across Different Areas
50
Healthcare Sector
51
Table: Healthcare Resources (Japan 2009-2014)
52
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Japan 2009-2014)
52
Table: Healthcare Activity (Japan 2009-2014)
53
Clinical Trials
53
Regulatory Development
56
Regulatory Regime
56
Table: OTC Drug Categories In Japan
59
Table: Prescription-To-OTC Switches In Japan (2000-2012)
60
Table: NCEs Approved by Origin, 2000-2010
64
Table: Timeline Of NHI Drug List Price Cuts In Japan, 1992-2010
64
Competitive Landscape
67
Research-Based Industry
67
Table: Companies Represented By The JPMA
67
Generic Drug Industry
68
Table: Members Of The Japan Generic Medicines Association (JGA)
69
Pharmaceutical Wholesale
69
Pharmaceutical Retail
71
Company Profile
86
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company
86
Astellas
93
Eisai
99
Daiichi Sankyo
105
Mitsubishi Tanabe
109
Sawai Pharmaceutical
113
Pfizer
116
Sanofi
120
Merck & Co
124
Novartis
128
GlaxoSmithKline
133
AstraZeneca
138
Demographic Forecast
142
Demographic Outlook
142
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Japan 1990-2025)
143
Table: Key Population Ratios (Japan 1990-2025)
143
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Japan 1990-2025)
144
Table: Population By Age Group (Japan 1990-2025)
144
Table: Population By Age Group % (Japan 1990-2025)
145
Glossary
147
Methodology
149
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
149
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
149
Notes On Methodology
150
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
151
Index Overview
152
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
152
Indicator Weightings
153

The Japan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Japan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Japan pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Japan, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Japanese pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Japanese pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Japan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc