Japan Power Report

Published 24 July 2015

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Japan Power Report

BMI View: Our view that reactors will start to go online in 2015 is still very much in play. We expect roughly 20 reactors to come online by the end of our forecast period in 2024, accounting for around 10% of the generation mix. The risks to this view lie largely in the continued strong public opposition to nuclear energy. Additionally, growing renewable fleet will add an upside to Japanese power output .

At the time of writing all 50 of Japan's nuclear reactors are offline, but Shinzo Abe's commitment to nuclear energy will see the first reactors return to the grid in 2015. Japan has faced significant financial implications from switching off nuclear and consequently having to rely more heavily on costly imported diesel and liquefied natural gas (LNG) to fill the nuclear void.

We believe that nuclear restarts will begin by the end of 2015 (specifically the restarting of the Sendai 1&2 reactors), and then continue gradually over the next decade, with between one and three reactors coming back online through to 2024. Overall, we expect roughly 20 reactors to be restarted, representing around 10% of the generation mix in Japan (still a noticeable reduction on the 27% contribution made by nuclear before the disaster). This accounts for just over 46% of the total operable reactors in Japan. Nonetheless, traditional thermal fuels and renewable generation will continue to play an important part in the Japan's power sector.

The plunge in global crude oil prices has lowered the cost of oil-linked LNG supplies and helped to reduce Japan's import bill. The return of nuclear energy will provide further relief to utilities, especially with much of the contracted LNG volumes to Japan still priced at a premium to spot prices. Still, the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) estimates that power generated from imported fuels will continue to be more expensive than indigenous nuclear generation.

Critical developments in Japan's power sector include:

  • Draft...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
12
Japan Snapshot
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Japan 2014-2019)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Japan 2019-2024)
12
Table: Country Snapshot - Power Sector
12
Japan Power Forecast Scenario
13
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Japan 2013-2018)
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Japan 2019-2024)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Japan 2013-2018)
16
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Japan 2019-2024)
16
Table: Energy Policy: The Fourth Basic Energy Plan
20
Table: Reactor Restart Applications
24
Electricity Consumption
29
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Japan 2013-2018)
29
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Japan 2019-2024)
29
Table: Fact Box: Proposed Smart Meter Rollout Deadlines
30
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
32
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Japan 2013-2018)
32
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Japan 2019-2024)
32
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
33
Asia Power Risk/Reward Index
33
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100)
38
Japan Power Risk/Reward Index
39
Rewards
39
Risks
39
Market Overview
41
Key Policies And Market Structure
41
Regulation And Competition
41
Sustainable Energy Policies
42
Pricing
44
Deregulation
45
Japan Power Projects Database
45
Table: Major Projects - Power
45
Competitive Landscape
51
Tokyo Electric Power
52
Hokkaido Electric Power
53
Kyushu Electric Power
53
Tohoku Electric Power
53
Chubu Electric Power
54
Hokuriku Electric Power
54
Kansai Electric Power
54
Shikoku Electric Power
54
Okinawa Electric Power
54
Chugoko Electric Power
55
Regional Overview
56
Shifting Fuel Dynamics In Asia Power
56
Glossary
62
Table: Glossary Of Terms
62
Methodology
63
Industry Forecast Methodology
63
Sources
66
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
66
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
67
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
68

The Japan Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Japan Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Japan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Japan's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Japan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).

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