Japan Power Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the power.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

Why you should buy this report

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  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Japan Power Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Japan ' s power sector will grow at less than 1% over our forecast period from 2017 to 2025 as nuclear reactors face delayed restart times owing to safety concerns and public disapproval. Coal and natural gas-fired power will remain the primary electricity sources while non-hydropower renewables growth will taper off due to declining government support. Despite the delays in restarts, we expect that the Japanese government will focus on increasing nuclear generation in the country's power mix.

Headline Power Forecasts (Japan 2015-2021)
Indicator 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI
Generation, Total, TWh 929.980 932.210 935.690 948.410 950.200 956.850 972.730
Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh 887.0 889.7 892.8 905.5 907.3 913.6 928.8
Capacity, Net, MW 330,978.6 335,803.2 340,592.2 346,964.4 351,321.1 355,104.4 359,733.3

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • The Japanese government is reportedly discussing the possibility of shutting down the Monju experimental nuclear reactor after multiple accidents and cost overruns. The final decision will be reached at the end of 2016.

  • Kyushu Electric will shut down its Sendai 1 reactor for a period of a few months in order to conduct safety inspections and maintenance at the plant. Currently, only two reactors are operational in Japan.

  • Our forecasts for Japanese thermal power generation remain mostly unchanged since the 2016 annual power report on Japan, owing to slow nuclear reactor restarts and the necessity of stable conventional power generation to complement non-hydropower renewable electricity.

  • eRex, a Japanese independent power producer (IPP) is planning two small-scale biomass power plants for 2020 with an output of around 75 megawatts (MW) each. Construction is expected to commence in April 2017, at a cost of USD482mn.

  • Another biomass construction contract was awarded to JFE Engineering. The biomass power plant will reportedly be able to use wood chips, coconuts and even coal. The project is estimated to cost up to USD193mn.

  • A consortium of private companies, including Tepco and Tohoku Electric Power Co. will start construction on a transmission line in 2017, linking two wind power zones to the grid in the Fukushima prefecture. The project will reportedly cost up to USD96mn, and will stretch for a distance of up to 100km. The project is slated for completion by 2020, in time for the Olympic Games due to be held in Tokyo.

  • The Russian government has requested the support of the Japanese government for a multitude of projects. Included in these projects is a planned underwater transmission line between the Hokkaido and Sakhalin islands.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
12
Japan Snapshot
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Japan 2014-2019)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Japan 2019-2024)
12
Table: Country Snapshot - Power Sector
12
Japan Power Forecast Scenario
13
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Japan 2013-2018)
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Japan 2019-2024)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Japan 2013-2018)
16
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Japan 2019-2024)
16
Table: Energy Policy: The Fourth Basic Energy Plan
20
Table: Reactor Restart Applications
24
Electricity Consumption
29
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Japan 2013-2018)
29
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Japan 2019-2024)
29
Table: Fact Box: Proposed Smart Meter Rollout Deadlines
30
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
32
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Japan 2013-2018)
32
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Japan 2019-2024)
32
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
33
Asia Power Risk/Reward Index
33
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100)
38
Japan Power Risk/Reward Index
39
Rewards
39
Risks
39
Market Overview
41
Key Policies And Market Structure
41
Regulation And Competition
41
Sustainable Energy Policies
42
Pricing
44
Deregulation
45
Japan Power Projects Database
45
Table: Major Projects - Power
45
Competitive Landscape
51
Tokyo Electric Power
52
Hokkaido Electric Power
53
Kyushu Electric Power
53
Tohoku Electric Power
53
Chubu Electric Power
54
Hokuriku Electric Power
54
Kansai Electric Power
54
Shikoku Electric Power
54
Okinawa Electric Power
54
Chugoko Electric Power
55
Regional Overview
56
Shifting Fuel Dynamics In Asia Power
56
Glossary
62
Table: Glossary Of Terms
62
Methodology
63
Industry Forecast Methodology
63
Sources
66
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
66
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
67
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
68

The Japan Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Japan Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Japan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Japan's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Japan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).