BMI View: Japan ' s power sector will grow at less than 1% over our forecast period from 2017 to 2025 as nuclear reactors face delayed restart times owing to safety concerns and public disapproval. Coal and natural gas-fired power will remain the primary electricity sources while non-hydropower renewables growth will taper off due to declining government support. Despite the delays in restarts, we expect that the Japanese government will focus on increasing nuclear generation in the country's power mix.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
|Generation, Total, TWh||929.980||932.210||935.690||948.410||950.200||956.850||972.730|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||887.0||889.7||892.8||905.5||907.3||913.6||928.8|
|Capacity, Net, MW||330,978.6||335,803.2||340,592.2||346,964.4||351,321.1||355,104.4||359,733.3|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
The Japanese government is reportedly discussing the possibility of shutting down the Monju experimental nuclear reactor after multiple accidents and cost overruns. The final decision will be reached at the end of 2016.
Kyushu Electric will shut down its Sendai 1 reactor for a period of a few months in order to conduct safety inspections and maintenance at the plant. Currently, only two reactors are operational in Japan.
Our forecasts for Japanese thermal power generation remain mostly unchanged since the 2016 annual power report on Japan, owing to slow nuclear reactor restarts and the necessity of stable conventional power generation to complement non-hydropower renewable electricity.
eRex, a Japanese independent power producer (IPP) is planning two small-scale biomass power plants for 2020 with an output of around 75 megawatts (MW) each. Construction is expected to commence in April 2017, at a cost of USD482mn.
Another biomass construction contract was awarded to JFE Engineering. The biomass power plant will reportedly be able to use wood chips, coconuts and even coal. The project is estimated to cost up to USD193mn.
A consortium of private companies, including Tepco and Tohoku Electric Power Co. will start construction on a transmission line in 2017, linking two wind power zones to the grid in the Fukushima prefecture. The project will reportedly cost up to USD96mn, and will stretch for a distance of up to 100km. The project is slated for completion by 2020, in time for the Olympic Games due to be held in Tokyo.
The Russian government has requested the support of the Japanese government for a multitude of projects. Included in these projects is a planned underwater transmission line between the Hokkaido and Sakhalin islands.
The Japan Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Japan Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Japan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Japan's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Japan.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).