Jordan and the West Bank & Gaza Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Jordan and the West Bank & Gaza Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Jordan's political risk profile remains intrinsically connected to the region's security outlook. Threats to the country's stability will remain elevated as long as the fighting in Syria and Iraq continues. Domestically, high youth unemployment and the government's uncompromising approach towards the Jordanian Islamist opposition raise longer-term risks, with this trend exacerbated by the large influx of Syrian refugees in the country.

  • The reopening of the Iraqi border will benefit Jordanian exporters and support economic growth.

  • Jordan's twin deficits - in the budget and current accounts - will narrow over the coming years, to 2.6% and 2.5% of GDP respectively in 2018. The EU offering an enhanced trade agreement, lower oil prices, progress towards energy diversification, and government efforts to increase revenues will drive these improvements.

  • Given the very slow progress made by the Iraqi Defence Forces and the Syrian army in Iraq and Syria against radical jihadist group Islamic State (IS) and other opposition movements, the security risks confronting Jordan are set to remain prominent over the coming years.

Key Risks

  • Maintaining consolidation measures will be key to persuading international donors to speed up their assistance to the country. However, actual delivery of funds has been slow in the past, and there could be a risk that the coming years turn out to be poor ones for Jordan in terms of foreign grants. This would once again raise fears over the possibility of an uncontrolled devaluation of the dinar.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Jordan 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f
BMI/CBJ
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 3.1 2.4 2.8 3.5
Nominal GDP, USDbn 36.0 38.6 41.7 44.6
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 1.7 -1.6 2.5 3.0
Exchange rate JOD/USD, eop 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71
Budget balance, % of GDP -2.3 -3.4 -3.5 -3.2
Current account balance, % of GDP -6.8 -8.5 -4.2 -3.2
BMI Index
6
BMI Risk Index - Jordan
6
BMI Risk Index - West Bank And Gaza
7
BMI Index League Tables
9
Executive Summary - Jordan
11
Core Views
11
Key Risks
11
Chapter 1
13
SWOT Analysis
13
Economic Growth Outlook
14
Exports Driving Timid Growth Recovery
14
DP By Expenditure Outlook
16
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
16
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
16
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
16
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
17
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
17
External Trade And Investment Outlook
17
Jordanian Exporters To Capitalise On Iraq's Military Progress
17
Outlook On External Position
19
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
19
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF IMPORTS IN 2014
19
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF EXPORTS IN 2014
20
Monetary Policy
21
CBJ To Delay Hike To Late 2016, Supporting Growth
21
onetary Policy Framework
22
Chapter 1
25
The Jordanian Economy To 2025
25
Expanding Private Sector Offers Strong Potential
25
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
25
Chapter 1
27
SWOT Analysis
27
Domestic Politics
28
Monarchy Strengthening Its Power, Weak Outlook For Democratisation
28
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
28
TABLE: SELECTED CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS
29
Long-Term Political Outlook
29
Further Reforms On The Horizon-
29
Chapter 1
33
SWOT Analysis
33
Executive Summary - West Bank & Gaza
35
Core Views
35
Key Risk
35
Chapter 2
37
SWOT Analysis
37
Economic Growth Outlook
38
Bleak Economic Outlook Amid Political Uncertainty, Lower Aid Inflows
38
Chapter 2
41
The West Bank & Gaza Economy To 2025
41
Long-Term Growth Outlook Far Below Potential
41
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
41
Chapter 2
45
SWOT Analysis
45
Domestic Politics
46
Efforts To Resume Peace Process By End-2016 Likely To Fail
46
Long-Term Political Outlook
47
Monumental Obstacles To Statehood
47
Chapter 3: BMI Global Macro Outlook
51
Global Macro Outlook
51
Summer Of Risk
51
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
51
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
52
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
53
TABLE: JORDAN - MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
55
TABLE: WEST BANK AND GAZA - MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
55

Assess your risk exposure in Jordan, West Bank and Gaza with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Jordan, West Bank and Gaza with confidence.

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