BMI View: Amid regional instability, Jorda n remains a key U.S. ally and we expect th is defence relationship to develop further over the course of 2015. As defence budgets tend to grow amidst increased threat perceptions, for 2015, we forecast Jordan's defence expenditure to grow at annual rate of 9.7% to bring spending to USD2. 8 bn despite stagnation in the wide r economy.
BMI determines an overall upward trend in the annual rate of growth in Jordan's defence expenditure. We think spending may be boosted by a substantial increase in U.S. military aid to Jordan currently under discussion in the Congress. We note that in the short to medium term manpower as a percentage of the overall population is decreasing, but that in the long term it is likely to experience an upward trend.
Jordan's security threats continue to stem primarily from the regional level. We think that the Palestinian-Israel conflict remains Amman's primary concern and point to deteriorating relations with Israel. On the other hand, relations with Baghdad are improving, in part out of shared interests, particularly the threat of retaliation by the Islamic State within the Hashemite Kingdom because of its participation in the international anti-Islamic State coalition.
Overall, Jordan's security risk index remains relatively good. For the coming year, we have awarded it a score of 74, which is a reduction of just 1 point on 2014, and 4 points on 2013. This reduction must be reviewed in light of the current crises plaguing its neighbouring states, Iraq and Syria. From 2007 through to 2015, its average index score is 73, we consider as a higher medium level of security.
The Islamic State claimed on 16 December 2014 that it had destroyed six border control posts along the Iraqi-Jordanian border using improvised explosive device attacks.
At the end of December 2013, China offered to provide Jordan with a grant of USD4.9 million to procure Chinese-made military equipment.
The Jordan Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.
BMI's Jordan Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Jordanian defence and security industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Jordan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Jordanian defence and security market.
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Global and Regional Political Outlooks
A strategic overview of the world’s major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict, or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world’s ‘wild card’ low-probability high-impact risks.
Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Defence Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and USDbn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure per capita (USD); defence budget (local currency and USDbn).
- Armed Forces (to 2012): Manpower available for military service, manpower fit for militaryservice, army personnel, navy personnel,air force personnel, total armed forces, (‘000) (% population).
- Arms Trade: Arms and ammunition exports and imports (USDmn); bombs, grenades and missiles exports and imports (USDmn); revolver and pistol exports and imports (USDmn); weapons excluding guns and swords exports and imports (USDmn).
Political Risk Assessment
Drawing on BMI’s heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s proprietary Security Risk Indices provide investors with a reliable and country-comparable guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst’s latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our Country Risk expertise, we assess the state’s vulnerability to a serious, or prolonged, terrorist campaign.
Armed Forces Spending/ Expenditure
The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.
The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries. The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting the Americas, along with potential risks in the coming year.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Defence & Security Market reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.