Jordan Defence & Security Report

Published 19 January 2015

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Jordan Defence & Security Report

BMI View: Amid regional instability, Jorda n remains a key U.S. ally and we expect th is defence relationship to develop further over the course of 2015. As defence budgets tend to grow amidst increased threat perceptions, for 2015, we forecast Jordan's defence expenditure to grow at annual rate of 9.7% to bring spending to USD2. 8 bn despite stagnation in the wide r economy.

BMI determines an overall upward trend in the annual rate of growth in Jordan's defence expenditure. We think spending may be boosted by a substantial increase in U.S. military aid to Jordan currently under discussion in the Congress. We note that in the short to medium term manpower as a percentage of the overall population is decreasing, but that in the long term it is likely to experience an upward trend.

Jordan's security threats continue to stem primarily from the regional level. We think that the Palestinian-Israel conflict remains Amman's primary concern and point to deteriorating relations with Israel. On the other hand, relations with Baghdad are improving, in part out of shared interests, particularly the threat of retaliation by the Islamic State within the Hashemite Kingdom because of its participation in the international anti-Islamic State coalition.

Overall, Jordan's security risk index remains relatively good. For the coming year, we have awarded it a score of 74, which is a reduction of just 1 point on 2014, and 4 points on 2013. This reduction must be reviewed in light of the current crises plaguing its neighbouring states, Iraq and Syria. From 2007 through to 2015, its average index score is 73, we consider as a higher medium level of security.

Key Developments

  • The Islamic State claimed on 16 December 2014 that it had destroyed six border control posts along the Iraqi-Jordanian border using improvised explosive device attacks.

  • At the end of December 2013, China offered to provide Jordan with a grant of USD4.9 million to procure Chinese-made military equipment.

  • ...
BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Jordan Defence & Security SWOT
9
Jordan Security SWOT
11
Political
13
Economic
14
Industry Forecast
15
Defence Budget
15
Table: Defence Expenditure (Jordan 2012-2019)
15
Armed Forces
17
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Jordan 2004-2011)
18
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (Jordan 2012-2019)
18
Defence Section Production
19
Key Risks To Forecast
19
Macroeconomic Forecasts
20
Economic Analysis
20
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
27
Middle East And Africa Security Risk Index
27
Table: Middle East And Africa Regional Security Risk Index
28
Table: Middle East And Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
28
Jordan Security Risk Ratings
30
Market Overview
31
Jordan Defence Market Overview
31
Armed Forces
31
Table: Jordan's Foreign Deployments
35
Domestic Industries
35
Imports
37
Exports
39
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
40
Jordan Security Overview
40
Domestic Threats
40
Regional Threats
41
International Threats
43
Company Profile
44
King Abdullah II Design and Development Bureau
44
Jordan Light Vehicle Manufacturing
46
Raytheon Technical Services Company
48
RUAG Land Systems
50
General Dynamics Land Systems
52
Regional Overview
54
Middle East And North Africa Security Overview
54
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security
54
Regional Power Dynamics
62
Nuclear Proliferation
65
External Powers
65
Global Industry Overview
68
Global Political Outlook
68
Methodology
74
Industry Forecast Methodology
74
Sector-Specific Methodology
75
Sources
76
Security Risk Index Methodology
76
Table: Indicators And Weighting
77

The Jordan Defence & Security Report features BMI Research's independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Jordan Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Jordanian defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Jordan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Jordanian defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world’s major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict, or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world’s ‘wild card’ low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Defence Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and USDbn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure per capita (USD); defence budget (local currency and USDbn).
  • Armed Forces (to 2012): Manpower available for military service, manpower fit for militaryservice, army personnel, navy personnel,air force personnel, total armed forces, (‘000) (% population).
  • Arms Trade: Arms and ammunition exports and imports (USDmn); bombs, grenades and missiles exports and imports (USDmn); revolver and pistol exports and imports (USDmn); weapons excluding guns and swords exports and imports (USDmn).

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI’s heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI’s proprietary Security Risk Indices provide investors with a reliable and country-comparable guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst’s latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our Country Risk expertise, we assess the state’s vulnerability to a serious, or prolonged, terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/ Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Competitive Landscape

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries. The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting the Americas, along with potential risks in the coming year.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Defence & Security Market reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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