Jordan, Lebanon and Syria Autos Report

Published 24 June 2015

  • 83 pages
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$1,295.00
Jordan, Lebanon and Syria Autos Report

Over the past quarter, BMI has become significantly more negative on the new vehicle sales outlook for Jordan, Lebanon and Syria. This reflects the deteriorating regional economic and political situation. Of the three countries covered in this report, we believe that it is Lebanon which holds the strongest near-term growth potential, where we forecast 2% growth in new vehicle sales over 2015, despite the introduction of tougher rules on car loans introduced by the Banque du Liban.

Conversely, we are targeting a 4% fall in sales within Syria, to 4,800 units and a massive 15% slump in new car sales in Jordan, to 14,450 units. The main reason behind our more pessimistic near-term stance lies in the growing threat to Jordan's cross-border trade with Syria and Iraq caused by ongoing border attacks from Islamic State (IS) insurgents. According to an April 2015 report by the Associated Press, the violence has led to the closure of the sole Syria-Jordan trade crossing, effectively paralysing its overland trade routes. The report also stated that Jordanian exports were already down by 17% y-o-y over the first two months of 2015, before the security situation worsened.

For now, we forecast real GDP growth for Jordan of 3.6% in 2015 (up slightly from our earlier projection of 3.4%) accelerating to 4.1% in 2016. However, risks will remain to the downside over the coming quarters, with any escalation in already-elevated regional instability liable to threaten Jordanian trade and investor confidence.

The Jordanian authorities are considering whether to cut tax rates on imported hybrid cars, in order to boost customer take-up, according to an April 2015 report by the Jordan Times. The report cites an unnamed government official, who said that a special committee had been set up to consider the issue.

At present, hybrid cars with an engine size smaller than 2,500cc are subject to a 25% special tax, while those with large engines are subject to a 55% levy. In addition, any customer...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Political
12
Economic
13
Political
14
Economic
15
Industry Forecast
16
Industry Forecast - Jordan
16
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Jordan 2013-2019)
16
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Jordan 2013-2019)
16
Trade
18
Passenger Cars
19
Luxury Cars
20
Alternative Fuels
21
Industry Forecast - Lebanon
23
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Lebanon 2013-2019)
23
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Lebanon 2013-2019)
23
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Lebanon 2013-2019)
23
Table: Lebanon - Top 5 Best-Selling Brands, 2014
26
Industry Forecast - Syria
27
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Syria 2013-2019)
27
Macroeconomic Forecasts
31
Economic Activity
31
Economic Activity
38
Table: Lebanon - Operational Risk
42
Table: Economic Activity (Lebanon 2009-2018)
47
Economic Activity
47
Table: MENA - Operational Risk
50
Table: Economic Activity (Syria 2009-2018)
52
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
53
Middle East - Risk/Reward Index
53
GCC Still Dominates
53
Little Change Mid-Table
54
Conflicts Take Their Toll
54
Table: MENA Autos Risk/Reward Index
56
Company Profile
57
Company Monitor
57
Hyundai-Kia
59
Renault
60
Regional Overview
61
Middle East Overview
61
Table: MENA Autos Production Investments
61
Global Industry Overview
63
Africa Still The Growth Driver
63
Oil Prices A Boon For Importers
64
Regulation Driving Innovation
66
Table: Fuel Economy Targets By Geography
66
SUVs To Be Segment Of Choice
67
Demographic Forecast
68
Jordan Demographic Forecast
68
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Jordan 1990-2025)
69
Table: Key Population Ratios (Jordan 1990-2025)
69
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Jordan 1990-2025)
70
Table: Population By Age Group (Jordan 1990-2025)
70
Table: Population By Age Group % (Jordan 1990-2025)
71
Methodology
73
Industry Forecasts
73
Sector-Specific Methodology
74
Sources
74
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
75
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
76

The Jordan, Lebanon and Syria Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Jordan, Lebanon and Syria Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Jordan, Syria, Lebanon to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Jordanian, Syrian, Lebanese automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Jordanian, Syrian, Lebanese automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc