Kazakhstan and Central Asia Telecommunications Report

Published 30 March 2015

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Kazakhstan and Central Asia Telecommunications Report

BMI View: Mobile number portability looks set to become a major trend throughout the Central Asian region, as a number of regulators look to introduce it. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have reached a saturation point in terms of mobile subscribers and the launch of MNP will facilitate increased competition between operators, encouraging innovative tariff plans and likely driving down ARPUs. MNP is less of a concern in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, where organic growth prospects remain . Transitions to 3G will continue to be vital across the region and though 4G is available, it will remain too expensive for mass uptake. Government interference in the sector remains the key risk in the telecoms industry, however, and we tend to believe that this high risk outweighs the potential rewards at the time.

Key Developments

Kazakhstan's government is expected to implement the mobile number portability (MNP) service in the country by mid-2015. The service would be launched after an amendment to law on communications. A legislation to pave the way for the service is currently proceeding through parliament. The service is expected to enhance competition in the market. The scheme will be free for all subscribers throughout the country.

State Property Management Fund of Kyrgyzstan has received an application from Turkish firm Cer Grup Petrol Sanayi Ve Tic Limited Sirketi to acquire a 75% stake in state-run Kyrgyz Mobile Company. Cer Grup has now been authorised to take part in the bidding process. Applications from other eligible firms will also be considered going forward. The stake sale would lead to the long-awaited privatisation of Kyrgyz Mobile, which was set up in 2011, but has never launched commercially.

In March 2015, President Almazbek Atambayev reportedly signed a new amendment to the Law of Telecommunications and Post (LTP), related to the introduction of mobile number portability (MNP). The MNP law is expected to come into force 15 days after being signed into...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
11
Kazakhstan
11
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2011-2018)
11
Mobile
11
Fixed Line
13
Broadband
14
Kyrgyzstan
15
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Kyrgyzstan 2011-2018)
15
Mobile
15
Fixed Line
16
Broadband
17
Tajikistan
19
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Tajikistan 2011-2018)
19
Mobile
19
Fixed Line
20
Broadband
21
Turkmenistan
23
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2011-2018)
23
Mobile
23
Fixed Line
24
Broadband
24
Uzbekistan
26
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2011-2018)
26
Fixed Line
27
Broadband
28
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
30
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q414
34
Market Overview
36
Kazakhstan
36
Mobile
36
Table: Kazakhstan
36
Table: Kazakhstan Mobile Market, June 2014
40
Fixed Line
46
Internet/Broadband
48
Pay-TV
52
Central And Eastern Europe Mobile Content
54
Kyrgyzstan
60
Mobile
60
Table: Kyrgystan In Regional Perspective
60
Mobile
60
Market Share And Net Additions
62
Table: Kyrgyzstan Mobile Market, June 2014
65
Fixed Line
72
Internet/Broadband
74
Tajikistan
78
Mobile
78
Table: Tajikistan
78
Mobile Growth
78
Market Share And Net Additions
80
Table: Tajikistan Mobile Market, June 2014
82
Usage (MOU/ARPU)
82
Fixed Line
85
Internet/Broadband
85
Turkmenistan
87
Mobile
87
Table: Turkmenistan
87
Table: Turkmenistan Mobile Market, June 2014
89
Fixed Line
97
Internet/Broadband
97
Uzbekistan
99
Table: Uzbekistan
99
Mobile
99
Table: Uzbekistan Mobile Market, June 2014
104
Fixed Line
112
Broadband
113
Regulatory Development
116
Regulatory Overview
116
Kazakhstan
116
Table: Kazakhstan - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
116
Kyrgyzstan
120
Table: Kyrgyzstan - Regulatory Bodies And their Responsibilities
120
Tajikistan
122
Table: Tajikistan - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
122
Turkmenistan
125
Table: Turkmenistan - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
125
Uzbekistan
128
Table: Uzbekistan - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
128
Competitive Landscape
132
Table: Key Players - Central Asia Telecoms Sector
132
Company Profile
133
Kazakhtelecom
133
Kyrgyztelecom
140
Tajiktelecom
145
Uzbektelecom
148
Regional Overview
153
Business Divisions
153
Table: ENT: Revenue By Business Segment (HRKmn)
153
Financial Performance
153
Geographical Performance
154
Table: ENT: Revenue By Geography (HRKmn)
155
Domestic Market
155
Export Markets
156
Ericsson Market
157
Outlook
158
Table: Selected Contracts, 2013/14
159
Demographic Forecast
160
Table: Kazakhstan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
161
Table: Kazakhstan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
162
Table: Kazakhstan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
163
Table: Kazakhstan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
163
Glossary
164
Table: Glossary Of Terms
164
Methodology
166
Industry Forecast Methodology
166
Sources
168
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
168
Table: Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
169
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
170

The Kazakhstan and Central Asia Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Kazakhstan and Central Asia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Kazakhstani, Uzbekistani, Turkmen, Kyrgyzstani, Tajikistani telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
  • Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
    Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc