Kazakhstan and Central Asia Telecommunications Report

Published 29 June 2015

  • 152 pages
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Kazakhstan and Central Asia Telecommunications Report

BMI View: State interference and political risk remains the most important risk of doing business in the Central Asian region. This was again amplified as government involvement became a key theme over the first six months of 2015. In Turkmenistan, a new state-owned company was created to spur competition, in Kyrgyzstan, state-owned Kyrgyz Mobile Company was sold to state-owned Mega C om and in Uzbekistan, state-owned Uzmobile launched a GSM network to better compete in the mobile market. This therefore does not appear to be a risk that is going to end in the short or long term. Kazakhstan is the most attractive of the region and its ascension to the WTO in June 2015 should lead to wide-scale privatisation of state-owned enterprises, Including in the telecoms sector. Transitions to 3G will continue to be vital across the region and though 4G is available, it will remain too expensive for mass uptake.

Key Data

  • Altel, the mobile subsidiary of state-owned incumbent operator Kazakhtelecom, reportedly reached 2.1mn subscribers as of May 15 2015, representing annual growth of around 100%. The company expects to reach 3mn subscribers by the end of 2015, as it continues the rollout of its 2G/3G/4G network across the country. Altel is the only licensed provider of 4G in Kazakhstan, a situation which has been criticised by rival operators in the mobile sector. Altel also plans to stop providing services over CDMA technology on July 1 2015.

  • Kyrgyzstan's operators MegaCom, Sky Mobile (Beeline) and Nur Telecom's mobile subsidiary O! registered 67.66% (around 1.9mn), 80.25% (2.2mn) and 79.49% (1.5mn) of their respective SIM cards as of May 1, according to the National Communications Agency. All operators are required to register their SIM cards by August 8. The combined total of 5.6mn registrations to date implies that the operators now need to register around an extra 2mn SIMs by the deadline.

Key Developments

The State Property Fund of...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
12
Kazakhstan
12
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2012-2019)
12
Mobile
12
Fixed Line
14
Broadband
15
Kyrgyzstan
16
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Kyrgyzstan 2012-2019)
16
Fixed Line
17
Broadband
18
Tajikistan
20
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Tajikistan 2012-2019)
20
Mobile
20
Fixed Line
21
Broadband
22
Turkmenistan
24
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2012-2019)
24
Mobile
24
Fixed Line
25
Broadband
25
Uzbekistan
27
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2012-2019)
27
Fixed Line
29
Broadband
29
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
30
Industry Risk Reward Index
30
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q215
35
Market Overview
37
Kazakhstan
37
Mobile
37
Table: Kazakhstan
37
Table: Kazakhstan Mobile Market, December 2014
41
Fixed Line
46
Internet/Broadband
48
Pay-TV
53
Kyrgyzstan
55
Mobile
55
Table: Kyrgyzstan In Regional Perspective
55
Mobile
55
Market Share And Net Additions
57
Table: Kyrgyzstan Mobile Market, December 2014
60
Fixed Line
66
Internet/Broadband
68
Tajikistan
72
Mobile
72
Table: Tajikistan
72
Mobile Growth
72
Market Share And Net Additions
74
Table: Tajikistan Mobile Market, December 2014
76
Usage (MOU/ARPU)
76
Fixed Line
79
Internet/Broadband
80
Turkmenistan
81
Mobile
81
Table: Turkmenistan
81
Table: Turkmenistan Mobile Market, December 2014
84
Fixed Line
90
Internet/Broadband
90
Uzbekistan
92
Table: Uzbekistan
92
Mobile
92
Table: Uzbekistan Mobile Market, December 2014
96
Fixed Line
103
Broadband
104
Regulatory Development
107
Regulatory Overview
107
Kazakhstan
107
Table: Kazakhstan - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
107
Kyrgyzstan
110
Table: Kyrgyzstan - Regulatory Bodies And their Responsibilities
110
Tajikistan
112
Table: Tajikistan - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
112
Turkmenistan
114
Table: Turkmenistan - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
114
Uzbekistan
116
Table: Uzbekistan - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
116
Competitive Landscape
119
Table: Key Players - Central Asia Telecoms Sector
119
Company Profile
120
Kazakhtelecom
120
Kyrgyztelecom
127
Tajiktelecom
131
Uzbektelecom
134
Regional Overview
138
Demographic Forecast
143
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kazakhstan 1990-2025)
144
Table: Key Population Ratios (Kazakhstan 1990-2025)
144
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Kazakhstan 1990-2025)
145
Table: Population By Age Group (Kazakhstan 1990-2025)
145
Table: Population By Age Group % (Kazakhstan 1990-2025)
146
Demographic Forecast
148
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kyrgyzstan 1990-2025)
149
Table: Key Population Ratios (Kyrgyzstan 1990-2025)
149
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Kyrgyzstan 1990-2025)
150
Table: Population By Age Group (Kyrgyzstan 1990-2025)
150
Table: Population By Age Group % (Kyrgyzstan 1990-2025)
151
Demographic Forecast
153
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Tajikistan 1990-2025)
154
Table: Key Population Ratios (Tajikistan 1990-2025)
154
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Tajikistan 1990-2025)
155
Table: Population By Age Group (Tajikistan 1990-2025)
155
Table: Population By Age Group % (Tajikistan 1990-2025)
156
Glossary
158
Table: Glossary Of Terms
158
Methodology
160
Industry Forecast Methodology
160
Sources
162
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
162
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
163
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
164

The Kazakhstan and Central Asia Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Kazakhstan and Central Asia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Kazakhstani, Uzbekistani, Turkmen, Kyrgyzstani, Tajikistani telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
  • Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
    Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc