BMI View: Some mo dest forecast revisions have been made in order to account for the latest mobile market data from H116. While w e maintain a positive outlook for the market , we caution that organic subscriber growth prospects will be limited to 2020 due to market maturity. Growth in the market will come from uptake of 3G/4G services with an increasing number of operators investing in 4G innovation. The recent consolidation efforts by Tele2 and Altel bode well for competition within the market as operators will compete aggressively in terms of data services and price.
Latest Updates And Industry Developments
We envisage moderate mobile subscriber growth of around 2.10% in 2016, a figure that would see the market grow to around 26.37mn subscribers by the end of the year. By the end of 2020, we expect the market to have around 27.6mn subscribers. Given the introduction of the technology-neutral mobile licence, we expect 3G and 4G subscriber numbers to increase to 18.8mn in 2020. This would be equivalent to 68.1% of the total mobile market.
Kcell launched 4G LTE services commercially in August 2016 and has signed a network-sharing deal with VimpelCom to reduce costs and improve subscriber experience. Furthermore, Kcell is in talks with the government to procure additional spectrum by the end of 2016 in the 700MHz and potentially 1800MHz bands.
Following TeliaSonera's announcement of its intention to divest its Eurasia operations, Turkcell reportedly offered in March 2016 to acquire full ownership of Fintur Holdings as well as of TeliaSonera's direct share in Kcell.
Pay-TV/Video On Demand offers interesting growth opportunities as high demand meets new services from mobile, wireline, cable and satellite providers.
|3G/4G To Grow The Market|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Kazakhtelecom, BMI|
The Kazakhstan Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Kazakhstan Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Kazakhstani, Uzbekistani, Turkmen, Tajikistani telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
- Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.