Kazakhstan Telecommunications Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecommunications industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, BMI Industry Forecast Scenario, Telecommunications Risk Reward Index, Market Overview, Regulatory Environment, Company Profiles and Competitive

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  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position.
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Kazakhstan Telecommunications Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Our Q2 2016 update on Kazakhstan's telecommunications market presents a revised outlook for the country's mobile and broadband subscriber sectors. We have also extended all of our forecasts through to 2020. The revised mobile and fixed-line subscriber forecasts are based on Q4 2015 data for the three largest mobile network operators . With penetration reaching over 146% at the end of 2015, saturation has set in to the mobile market, with organic growth opportunities limited for companies . Going forward the emphasis will be on the promotion of 3G and 4G services. The introduction of mobile number portability (MNP) at the start of 2016 will help operator growth strategies; however, this will not contribute to total market growth, as MNP involves capturing subscribers from rival players. Kazakhstan has relatively high broadband penetration for the region, and in addition has stronger growth potential than its neighbours. A key driver is likely to be the spread of LTE services, which were launched by Kazakhtelecom in January 2013 in Almaty and Astana, and will be rolled out nationwide by 2018.

Latest Updates And Industry Developments

  • We envisage moderate mobile subscriber growth of around 2% in 2016. This would see the market grow to around 26.34mn subscribers at the end of the year, equivalent to a penetration rate of almost 148%. By the end of 2020 we envisage a market of around 27.9mn subscribers, equivalent to a penetration rate of almost 150%. We expect 3G subscriber numbers to increase to over 18mn in 2020. This would be equivalent to 64.6% of the total mobile market.

  • In November 2015 it was announced that Tele2 and Altel, the third and fourth players in the Kazakh mobile market, had agreed to merge. Altel is the mobile arm of fixed incumbent Kazakhtelecom. BMI believes Tele2 is looking to take advantage of the uncertainty in the mobile market, as well as leverage its data leadership by reducing the costs of rolling out new networks. However, the macroeconomic conditions in the country pose a downside risk to the operation.

  • BMI forecasts a total of 3.56mn fixed-line subscriptions by the end of 2020, equal to penetration rate of 19.2%. Developed fixed-line infrastructure will help to entrench Kazakhstan as the region's most sophisticated fixed broadband sector, with more than 8.2mn subscribers by 2020, equating to a penetration rate of 44.1%.

3G & 4G Subscriptions to Expand Share of Market
Kazakhstan Mobile Market
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, national sources
BMI Industry View
7
Latest Updates And Industry Developments
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Kazakhstan
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
12
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2013-2020)
14
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
15
Industry Risk/Reward Index
15
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Telecoms Risk/Rewards Index, Q2 2016
16
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
18
Market Overview
20
Kazakhstan
20
Market Drivers And Trends
20
Mobile
21
Wireline Voice And Broadband
26
Pay TV/Convergence
31
Regulatory Development
33
Regulatory Overview
33
Kazakhstan
33
Table: Kazakhstan - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
33
Competitive Landscape
36
Table: Key Players - Central Asia Telecoms Sector
36
Table: Market Overview
37
Table: K-Cell
37
Table: Beeline
38
Table: Altel
39
Table: NeoTelecom
39
Company Profile
41
Kazakhtelecom
41
Demographic Forecast
46
Demographic Outlook
46
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kazakhstan 1990-2025)
47
Table: Key Population Ratios (Kazakhstan 1990-2025)
47
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Kazakhstan 1990-2025)
48
Table: Population By Age Group (Kazakhstan 1990-2025)
48
Table: Population By Age Group % (Kazakhstan 1990-2025)
49
Glossary
51
Table: Glossary Of Terms
51
Methodology
53
Industry Forecast Methodology
53
Sources
55
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
55
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
56
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
57

The Kazakhstan Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Kazakhstan Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Kazakhstani, Uzbekistani, Turkmen, Tajikistani telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
  • Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
    Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.