Kazakhstan and Central Asia Telecommunications Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecommunications industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, BMI Industry Forecast Scenario, Telecommunications Risk Reward Index, Market Overview, Regulatory Environment, Company Profiles and Competitive

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  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position.
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Kazakhstan and Central Asia Telecommunications Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: We maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook for the Central Asian telecommunications market as a whole. There are some growth opportunities in the region, particularly with regard to 3G and 4G technology Uptake. Nevertheless, s tate interference and political risk remains the most important risk of doing business in the Central Asian region. This was again amplified as government involvement became a key theme over the course of 2015. In Turkmenistan, a new state-owned company was created to spur competition, in Kyrgyzstan, state- owned Kyrgyz Mobile Company was sold to state-owned MegaCom and in Uzbekistan, state-owned Uzmobile launched a GSM network to better compete in the mobile market. This therefore does not appear to be a risk that is going to end in the short or long term. Kazakhstan is the most attractive of the region and its ascension to the WTO in June 2015 should lead to wide-scale privatisation of state-owned enterprises, Including in the telecoms sector. Transitions to 3G will continue to be vital across the region and though 4G is available, it will remain too expensive for mass uptake.

Key Data

  • Altel, the mobile subsidiary of state-owned incumbent operator Kazakhtelecom, reportedly reached 2.1mn subscribers as of May 15 2015, representing annual growth of around 100%. The company expected to reach 3mn subscribers by the end of 2015, as it continued the rollout of its 2G/3G/4G network across the country. Altel is the only licensed provider of 4G in Kazakhstan, a situation which has been criticised by rival operators in the mobile sector. Altel also planned to stop providing services over CDMA technology on July 1 2015.

  • Kyrgyzstan's operators MegaCom, Sky Mobile (Beeline) and Nur Telecom's mobile subsidiary O! registered 67.66% (around 1.9mn), 80.25% (2.2mn) and 79.49% (1.5mn) of their respective SIM cards as of May 1, according to the National Communications Agency. All operators were required to register their SIM cards by August 8. The combined total of 5.6mn registrations to date implies that the operators now need to register around an extra 2mn SIMs by the deadline.

Regional Mobile Forecasts
2013-2019
National Sources/BMI
BMI Industry View
7
Key Data
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
12
Kazakhstan
12
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2012-2019)
12
Mobile
12
Fixed Line
14
Broadband
14
Kyrgyzstan
16
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Kyrgyzstan 2012-2019)
16
Fixed Line
17
Broadband
18
Tajikistan
19
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Tajikistan 2012-2019)
19
Mobile
19
Fixed Line
20
Broadband
21
Turkmenistan
22
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2012-2019)
22
Mobile
23
Fixed Line
24
Broadband
24
Uzbekistan
26
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2012-2019)
26
Fixed Line
28
Broadband
28
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
30
Central And Eastern Europe Industry Risk Reward Index
30
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Telecoms Risk/Rewards Index, Q4 2015
33
Market Overview
35
Kazakhstan
35
Mobile
35
Table: Kazakhstan
35
Fixed Line
42
Internet/Broadband
45
Pay-TV
48
Kyrgyzstan
50
Mobile
50
Table: Kyrgyzstan In Regional Perspective
50
Mobile
50
Market Share And Net Additions
52
Table: Kyrgyzstan Mobile Market, March 2015
54
Fixed Line
60
Internet/Broadband
61
Tajikistan
64
Mobile
64
Table: Tajikistan
64
Mobile Growth
64
Market Share And Net Additions
66
Table: Tajikistan Mobile Market, December 2014
68
Usage (MOU/ARPU)
68
Fixed Line
70
Internet/Broadband
71
Turkmenistan
72
Mobile
72
Table: Turkmenistan
72
Table: Turkmenistan Mobile Market, March 2015
74
Fixed Line
81
Internet/Broadband
81
Uzbekistan
83
Table: Uzbekistan
83
Mobile
83
Table: Uzbekistan Mobile Market, March 2015
87
Fixed Line
93
Broadband
94
Regulatory Development
97
Regulatory Overview
97
Kazakhstan
97
Table: Kazakhstan - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
97
Kyrgyzstan
100
Table: Kyrgyzstan - Regulatory Bodies And their Responsibilities
100
Tajikistan
102
Table: Tajikistan - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
102
Turkmenistan
104
Table: Turkmenistan - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
104
Uzbekistan
106
Table: Uzbekistan - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
106
Competitive Landscape
108
Table: Key Players - Central Asia Telecoms Sector
108
Company Profile
109
Kazakhtelecom
109
Kyrgyztelecom
114
Tajiktelecom
118
Uzbektelecom
121
Demographic Forecast
124
Demographic Outlook
124
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kazakhstan 1990-2025)
125
Table: Key Population Ratios (Kazakhstan 1990-2025)
125
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Kazakhstan 1990-2025)
126
Table: Population By Age Group (Kazakhstan 1990-2025)
126
Table: Population By Age Group % (Kazakhstan 1990-2025)
127
Glossary
129
Table: Glossary Of Terms
129
Methodology
131
Industry Forecast Methodology
131
Sources
133
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
133
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
134
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
135

The Kazakhstan and Central Asia Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Kazakhstan and Central Asia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Kazakhstani, Uzbekistani, Turkmen, Kyrgyzstani, Tajikistani telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
  • Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
    Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.