Kazakhstan Food & Drink Report

Published 13 May 2015

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Kazakhstan Food & Drink Report

BMI View: T he devaluation of the teng e in early 2014 and elevated consumer price inflation (forecast to reach 9 .0 % in 2015) will impact on household spending in Kazakhstan. However, p rivate consumption is set to remain the primary driver of economic growth in the longer term , which keeps our outlook positive for spending on food and drink. Future drivers of growth will be portfolio expansion by major manufacturers and importers, including strong marketing and promotional campaigns targeting younger and more aspirational consumers. The Kazakh government ' s recently announced financial incentive, offering up to 30% cash back to foreign investors in newly created firms, should boost investment into domestic companies in a country that is already an attractive destination for foreign investment.

Headline Industry Data (local currency):

  • 2015 per capita food consumption: +11.2%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014 to 2019: +10.2%

  • 2015 alcoholic drinks value sales: +12.2%; CAGR forecast 2014 to 2019: +11.4%

  • 2015 soft drinks value sales: +14.4%; CAGR forecast 2014 to 2019: +13.9%

Key Industry Developments

Kazakh Market Drives Coca-Cola Icecek Volume Sales Growth : On January 13, Coca-Cola Icecek announced that its volume sales for 2014 increased by 6.9%. The increase resulted mainly from double digit rates of growth in its international markets. Volume growth rates from its Kazakhstan operations came in at 18.8% year-on-year despite challenging economic conditions following the devaluation of the tenge in February 2014. The Kazakh performance was backed by growth in market share and more than 20% volume growth across the sparkling drinks category.

McDonald's To Enter Kazakhstan In 2015 : In November 2014, US fast food giant McDonald's announced that it will open its first restaurant in Kazakhstan in H215. The company has entered a partnership with Kazakhstan businessman Kairat Boranbayev to open the burger bar at a yet-to-be-announced...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Food
9
Drink
11
Mass Grocery Retail
13
Industry Forecast
15
Consumer Outlook
15
Food
17
Food Consumption
17
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2011-2018)
18
Canned Food
19
Confectionery
19
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2011-2018)
20
Processed Foods
21
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (Kazakhstan 2013-2018)
22
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2013-2018)
22
Baked Products
22
Table: Sweet Biscuits Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2013-2018)
23
Pasta
23
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2013-2018)
24
Dairy
24
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2013-2018)
25
Drink
26
Alcoholic Drinks
26
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2013-2018)
27
Soft Drinks
28
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2013-2018)
29
Hot Drinks
31
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2013-2018)
32
Mass Grocery Retail
33
Trade
34
Table: Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2013-2018)
35
Macroeconomic Forecast
36
Economic Analysis
36
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
40
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q314
42
Market Overview
46
Food
46
Food Processing
46
Canned Food
47
Confectionery
47
Agriculture
47
Drink
49
Alcoholic Drinks
49
Soft Drinks
52
Hot Drinks
54
Mass Grocery Retail
54
Industry Trends And Developments
56
Food
56
Key Industry Trends And Developments
56
Drink
59
Key Industry Trends And Developments
59
Mass Grocery Retail
60
Key Industry Trends And Developments
60
Competitive Landscape
62
Table: Key Players In Kazakhstan's Food Sector
62
Table: Key Players In Kazakhstan's Drink Sector
62
Table: Key Players In Kazakhstan's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
63
Company Profile
64
Ardager Agricultural Financial
64
Karaganda Confectionery
66
Efes Karaganda Brewery
68
Carlsberg Kazakhstan
70
Coca-Cola I-ecek
72
Vester
74
Global Industry Overview
76
Table: Food And Drink Core Views
85
Demographic Forecast
86
Table: Kazakhstan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
87
Table: Kazakhstan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
88
Table: Kazakhstan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
89
Table: Kazakhstan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
89
Glossary
90
Food & Drink
90
Mass Grocery Retail
90
Methodology
92
Industry Forecast Methodology
92
Sector-Specific Methodology
93
Sources
93
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
94
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
95
Table: Weighting
96

The Kazakhstan Food & Drink Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Kazakhstan Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Kazakhstan.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Kazakhstan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Kazakhstani food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Kazakhstan through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the mass grocery retail market.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Food Forecasts

BMI’s food chapter is divided into sections such as meat, fish, confectionary, dairy and canned foods, and provides insight into each market’s food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

  • Industry Forecast Scenario: Historical data series and a forecast to end-2019 for growth of key indicators within a market’s food industry. Indicators include food consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
  • Industry Developments: A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
  • Market Overview: An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food chapter, the drink section provides insight into each market’s drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into each market’s grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown of the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the mass grocery retail and food and drink industries via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. This chapter also includes data-rich, in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the region’s leading mass grocery retail and food and drink operators.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Food & Drink reports draw on an extensive network primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc