Kazakhstan Mining Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
×

Sign up to download the Kazakhstan Mining Report

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

You will shortly receive your free executive summary by email.

Kazakhstan Mining Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: We maintain a bullish outlook as to the long-term expansion of Kazakhstan's mining sector, with the country becoming an increasingly attractive destination for investment . However, we note that immediate challenges will threaten to weigh on production growth over the next few years. We have revised our zinc output forecasts for the country downwards and retain cautious outlook with regards to coal and iron ore.

Kazakhstan Mining Industry Value Forecast (2014-2019)
2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
National Sources/BMI
Mining Industry Value, USDbn 34.63 35.39 35.28 35.63 37.36 38.10
Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y 2.50 2.20 -0.32 1.00 4.83 2.00

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • We still expect to see positive growth in Kazakhstani coal and iron ore production over the next few years, despite a deteriorating price outlook for both these markets. We forecast coal output to grow by 1.2% y-o-y over 2015-2019, while iron ore production will expand by 1.9% a year over the period.

  • However, we have made significant downwards revisions to our zinc production estimates since the last quarter, following Glencore's decision to cut zinc production across its global operations and especially those located in Kazakhstan. The company is the majority share holder of Kazzinc, which accounts for over 90.0% of the country's total zinc production in 2014. As such, we revised down Kazakhstan's zinc production growth from 2.4% to -15.0% and 1.4% to -18.0% for 2015 and 2016, respectively. We expect 2015 output to total 281kt and 2016 output to be only 230kt. The country's zinc mining industry value will fall slightly, from 4.8% to 4.0%.

  • Fears surrounding further cuts to global commodity prices led to the Kazakhstani government's announcement of an anti-crisis plan in October 2015. The government is reportedly analysing measures to support key export industries such as coal and iron ore as well as oil and other resources.

  • Despite continuing challenges, we believe the country's mining sector will continue to remain attractive due to its vast mineral reserves and supportive business environment. In particular, the country's mining and energy sectors are attracting the attention of China and India. In September 2015, the Kazakhstani and Chinese governments signed agreements worth USD5.1bn in the field of transport, energy, nuclear, metallurgical and chemical industries. The deals include the construction of a mining and metallurgical complex in Kazakhstan's Akmola region. Another important agreement was the establishment of the Karaganda Sisian joint venture - a construction operator that would work on a coal processing complex in the Karaganda region.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Kazakhstan Mining Industry Value Forecast (2014-2019)
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Coal: China, India To Drive Long-Term Growth
9
Latest Updates
9
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Kazakhstan 2012-2019)
9
Structural Trends
11
Country's Energy Needs Reliant On Coal
11
Industry Set For Solid Growth
12
Iron Ore: Downside Risk To Forecasts
14
Latest Developments
14
Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (Kazakhstan 2012-2019)
14
Structural Trends
16
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
17
Kazakhstan Risk/Reward Index
17
Rewards
17
Risks
17
Europe: Majority To Be Low Risk-Reward
19
Table: Europe - Mining Risk/Reward Index
21
Regulatory Development
22
Table: Kazakhstan - Mineral Extraction Taxes
22
Trade & Investment Risk Analysis
24
Commodities Forecast
27
Commodities Outlook
27
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts
27
Competitive Landscape
28
Company Profile
29
KAZ Minerals
29
Table: KAZ Minerals - Financial Results
32
Eurasian Natural Resources
33
Table: Eurasian Resources - Financial Results
34
Regional Overview
35
Europe Mining: The Four Key Themes
35
Key Themes:
35
Russia & Poland To Defy Regional Slowdown
35
US Dollar Strength To Influence Trade Dynamics
37
Coal: Russia To Be Growth Bright Spot
38
Rare Earth Production To Shift Westwards
39
Global Industry Overview
41
Global Overview
41
1
41
2
42
3
43
4
45
5
48
Methodology
50
Industry Forecast Methodology
50
Sources
51
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
52
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
53

The Kazakhstan Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Kazakhstan Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Kazakhstan.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Kazakhstan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Kazakhstan's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kazakhstan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.