BMI View: We maintain a bullish outlook as to the long-term expansion of Kazakhstan's mining sector, with the country becoming an increasingly attractive destination for investment . However, we note that immediate challenges will threaten to weigh on production growth over the next few years. We have revised our zinc output forecasts for the country downwards and retain cautious outlook with regards to coal and iron ore.
|Mining Industry Value, USDbn||34.63||35.39||35.28||35.63||37.36||38.10|
|Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y||2.50||2.20||-0.32||1.00||4.83||2.00|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
We still expect to see positive growth in Kazakhstani coal and iron ore production over the next few years, despite a deteriorating price outlook for both these markets. We forecast coal output to grow by 1.2% y-o-y over 2015-2019, while iron ore production will expand by 1.9% a year over the period.
However, we have made significant downwards revisions to our zinc production estimates since the last quarter, following Glencore's decision to cut zinc production across its global operations and especially those located in Kazakhstan. The company is the majority share holder of Kazzinc, which accounts for over 90.0% of the country's total zinc production in 2014. As such, we revised down Kazakhstan's zinc production growth from 2.4% to -15.0% and 1.4% to -18.0% for 2015 and 2016, respectively. We expect 2015 output to total 281kt and 2016 output to be only 230kt. The country's zinc mining industry value will fall slightly, from 4.8% to 4.0%.
Fears surrounding further cuts to global commodity prices led to the Kazakhstani government's announcement of an anti-crisis plan in October 2015. The government is reportedly analysing measures to support key export industries such...
The Kazakhstan Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Kazakhstan Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Kazakhstan.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Kazakhstan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Kazakhstan's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kazakhstan.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
- Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
- Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
- Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.
BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis
Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.