Kazakhstan Power Report

Published 29 May 2015

  • 54 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Kazakhstan Power Report

BMI View: We expect healthy growth in Kazakhstan's power sector over BMI 's 10-year forecast period to 202 4 , in terms of generation and consumption. Coal will continue to maintain its dominance, accounting for over 80% of the cou ntry's energy generation by 2024 . However, non-hydro renewables will grow rapidly, with a slew of foreign-financed wind and solar projects in the pipeline. The government also plan s to restart the exploitation of nuclear energy, helped by Kazakhstan's vast uranium wealth. Power production will comfortably meet demand, with Kazakhstan's dependence on energy imports decreasing over our forecast period . Although s ystem losses will continue to be considerable , we expect the supply/demand gap to narrow significantly over the 10-year period owing to steady investment in transmission and distribution infrastructure .

Key Trends And Developments

  • The price of electricity is rising. At the start of 2015, electricity prices in Almaty and the Almaty region increased 7.5% to KZT20 for 1 kW of power and the head of Kazakhstan's energy ministry decreed a rise in electricity tariffs in all regions of Kazakhstan during Q114.

  • Kazakhstan is embarking on plans to expand electricity supplies to Russia in the context of the new Eurasian Economic Union. However, the vision of a unified market is coming up hard against the reality of Russia's deepening economic malaise. In late November, Kazakhstan stopped feeding the Russian electricity grids it was serving because the fixed rouble-denominated payment it was receiving, fell below cost price.

  • Samruk-Energo aims to produce 110mn kWh in 2015 and 355mn kWh in 2016 from wind and solar parks. Several projects are already planned for the 2015-2019, including a 50MW solar farm near Kapshagay city, with the potential for expansion to 100 MW; and several wind farm projects of about 50 MW. Kazakhstan's government has set a 30% renewables goal for 2030.

  • The government of Kazakhstan is...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Kazakhstan Snapshot
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Kazakhstan 2014-2019)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Kazakhstan 2019-2024)
10
Table: Kazakhstan Snapshot: Power Sector
10
Kazakhstan Forecast Scenario
11
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2013-2018)
11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2019-2024)
12
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2013-2018)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2019-2024)
14
Electricity Consumption
20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2013-2018)
20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2019-2024)
20
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports
21
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2013-2018)
21
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2019-2024)
21
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2013-2018)
21
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2019-2024)
21
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
24
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index
24
Kazakhstan Power Risk/Reward Index
30
Rewards
30
Risks
30
Market Overview
32
Key Policies And Market Structure
32
Regulation and Competition
32
Pricing
33
Kazakhstan Power Projects Database
34
Table: Major Projects - Power
34
Competitive Landscape
36
Samruk-Energo
36
KEGOC
36
AES
37
Company Profile
38
Samruk-Energo
38
Regional Overview
41
CEE Power Regional Overview
41
Glossary
46
Table: Glossary Of Terms
46
Methodology
47
Industry Forecast Methodology
47
Sources
50
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
50
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
51
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
52

The Kazakhstan Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Kazakhstan Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Kazakhstan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Kazakhstan's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Kazakhstan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc