BMI View: This quarter our core assumptions for the sector remain virtually unchanged. W e continue to expect growth in Kazakhstan's power sector over BMI's 10-year forecast period to 2025 , in terms of generation and consumption. Although c oal will continue to maintain its dominance over our ten-year forecast period to 20 25, non-hydro renewables will grow rapidly, with a slew of foreign-financed wind and solar projects in the pipeline. The government also plan s to restart the exploitation of nuclear energy, helped by Kazakhstan's vast uranium wealth. Power production will comfortably meet demand, with Kazakhstan's dependence on energy imports decreasing over our forecast period .
|Generation, Total, TWh||92.070||90.160||92.130||94.450||96.380||98.650||102.230|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||84.4||82.8||84.3||87.0||89.7||92.6||95.3|
|Capacity, Net, MW||20,160.6||20,319.9||20,676.7||21,100.8||21,300.9||21,561.9||22,257.6|
We expect the Kazakh solar power sector to register limited growth over the next five years, as a result of the sporadic completion of only a small number of solar power projects. This will be in large part the result of investment prospects in the sector being undermined by uncertainty over the country's economic outlook and Kazakhstan's challenging business environment.
Our Country Risk team believes that the Kazakhstan economy has turned the corner and a gradual recovery is in sight over the coming quarters as oil prices stabilise and gain a degree of traction, and forecast real GDP to expand by 1.5% and 2.4% in 2016 and 2017, respectively. The recovery in oil prices also bodes well for ongoing oil projects in the country and these are likely to lead to continued inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows as well as improvements to the country's infrastructure. This will be positive for longer-term growth as Kazakhstan's infrastructure remains fairly weak.
In October 2015, Kazakhstan announced that, 65 of the largest Kazakh state-controlled companies in the oil and gas, transportation, energy and nuclear sectors, including Samruk Energo will be privatised via an IPO between 2016 and 2020. The decision to sell a stake in the state-controlled energy companies was precipitated by both political and economic factors: the country's export-driven, hydrocarbon-based economy suffered greatly amid crashing commodities prices, and mismanagement of its currency exacerbated these problems further.
The Kazakhstan Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Kazakhstan Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Kazakhstan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Kazakhstan's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Kazakhstan.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).