Kazakhstan Power Report

Published 02 March 2015

  • 53 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Kazakhstan Power Report

BMI View: We expect healthy growth in Kazakhstan's power sector over BMI 's 10-year forecast period to 2023 , in terms of generation and consumption. Coal will retain its dominance, accounting for over 80% of the cou ntry's energy generation by 2024 . However, non-hydro renewables will grow rapidly, with a slew of foreign-financed wind and solar projects in the pipeline. The government also plan s to restart the exploitation of nuclear energy, helped by Kazakhstan's vast uranium wealth. Power production will comfortably meet demand, with Kazakhstan's dependence on energy imports decreasing over the 10-year period. For much of the forecast period, system losses will be considerable, but steady investment in transmission and distribution infrastructure will narrow the supply/demand gap significantly .

Key Trends And Developments

  • The price of electricity is rising. At the start of 2015, electricity prices in Almaty and the Almaty region increased by 7.5% to KZT20 for 1 kW of power and the head of Kazakhstan's energy ministry decreed a rise in electricity tariffs in all regions of Kazakhstan during the course of Q114.

  • In December 2014, the Kazakhstan Electricity Grid Operating Company listed 10% of its shares in a so-called people's IPO on the local stock exchange, raising USD72.6m in capital. The offering was oversubscribed by nearly 30%. The total volume of bids was USD91.5mn, exceeding the offer volume by 27.2%. Fitch has affirmed KEGOC's long-term Issuer Default Rating at BBB+ with a stable outlook.

  • Kazakhstan is embarking on plans to expand electricity supplies to Russia in the context of the new Eurasian Economic Union. However, the vision of a unified market is coming up hard against the reality of Russia's deepening economic malaise. In late November, Kazakhstan stopped feeding the Russian electricity grids it was serving because the fixed rouble-denominated payment it was receiving fell below cost price.

  • In December, the European Bank...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Kazakhstan Snapshot
11
Table: Kazakhstan Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data
11
Table: Kazakhstan Snapshot: Power Sector
11
Kazakhstan Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Kazakhstan Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
12
Table: Kazakhstan Total Electricity Generation, Long-Term Forecasts 2017-2022
13
Table: Kazakhstan Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
15
Table: Kazakhstan Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
16
Electricity Consumption
21
Table: Kazakhstan Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
21
Table: Kazakhstan Total Electricity Consumption Long Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
21
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports
22
Table: Kazakhstan Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
22
Table: Kazakhstan Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
23
Table: Kazakhstan Trade Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
23
Table: Kazakhstan Trade Long Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
25
CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Table: CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
29
Kazakhstan Power Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Rewards
29
Risks
30
Market Overview
31
Key Policies And Market Structure
31
Regulation and Competition
31
Pricing
31
Kazakhstan Power Projects Database
32
Table: Major Projects - Power
32
Competitive Landscape
34
KEGOC
34
AES
34
Company Profile
35
Samruk-Energo
35
Regional Overview
38
CEE Industry Overview
38
Glossary
44
Table: Glossary of Terms
44
Methodology
45
Industry Forecasts
45
Power Industry - Data Methodology
46
Generation and Consumption Data
46
Electricity Generating Capacity Data
47
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
48
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
50
Sources
51

The Kazakhstan Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Kazakhstan Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Kazakhstan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Kazakhstan's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Kazakhstan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc