BMI View: The regional economic malaise, generated mainly by low energy prices in a part of the world that remains highly hydrocarbon dependent, continues to wreak havoc on car sales and production in Kazakhstan, together with production in Uzbekistan, even if the latter country's reasonably diversified economy means that domestic vehicle sales there are holding up . We predict that there will be a recovery from 2017, albeit a patchy one, that is unlikely to be strong enough to justify ongoing plans to expand production capacity significantly in Kazakhstan.
|Vehicle Sales By Country|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: National sources/BMI|
The year 2016 has been another highly challenging one for both the Kazakh and the Uzbek auto industry.
Data for Kazakhstan for the first six months of 2016 shows overall vehicle production down 55% at a paltry 3,772 units, while sales of cars were down 59% at 21,964 units. We are therefore bearish about the likely final sales and production figures for 2016, with total vehicle production estimated to fall 50.3% to 7,011 units and sales 51% to 51,582 units, in a context where we forecast only a very modest abatement of the negative growth trend in H216. A modest rebound in oil prices will be a key factor in this improvement, but the element most relevant to the trajectory of car sales will be a recovery in consumer demand (albeit a slight one, for the time being). This should feed into an 8.4% rise in car sales in 2017, although the aggregate number of units sold will remain very low by historical standards, at 55,915.
Reliable data and news on Uzbekistan, which is one of the most opaque markets in the world, is difficult to source. However, it appears that local sales did not experience the catastrophic fall undergone by other regional markets in 2015, including both Russia and Uzbekistan. The statistics, largely drawn from OCIA, show sales remaining largely flat across the period 2013 to 2015 inclusive. Indeed, total vehicle sales rose 0.9% to 57,500 units in 2013, 1.0% to 58,100 in 2014 and 1.2% to 58,773 units in 2015.
However, production in Uzbekistan has been hit hard by the regional economic slowdown, given that the bulk of the country's auto output is destined for export. Data collated from a range of sources shows that production fell by an estimated 22.2% to 208,069 units in 2015. There was an even more pronounced (71.3%) plunge in car output in Q216, according to OICA. We forecast a fall of 68.8% for 2016 as a whole, taking total output down to 64,912 units, before a further fall (down 14% year-on-year, to 55,829 units) in 2017. Thereafter, we predict a recovery, albeit not a rapid one, indicating it will take some time before production volumes once again reach the levels recorded in 2014.
The Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Kazakhstani, Uzbekistani automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Kazakhstani, Uzbekistani automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.