BMI View: A combination of a still-sluggish economy and a weakening currency will lead to further challenges for the Kazakh new vehicle sales market in 2016. We are forecasting 2% sales growth for the sector as a whole, with commercial vehicles set to outperform passenger cars. For Uzbekistan, the near-term outlook is also challenging and we are forecasting 1.5% sales growth for the sector, with commercial vehicles again set to outperform passenger cars.
|Vehicle Sales By Country|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: National sources/BMI|
The year 2015 has been a challenging one for both the Kazakh and the Uzbek auto industry.
Media reports have suggested that many Kazakhs have been travelling to neighbouring Russia to buy new vehicles, certainly during the early part of 2015, when the rouble was weakening sharply against all global currencies, including the tenge.
Although we expect another difficult year for Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan auto sales in 2016, we remain upbeat on the prospects for both markets over the long term.
Demographic trends are favourable and car ownership rates per capita remain low.
The majority of Uzbek car production is destined for export. However, 2015 has proved a difficult year for Uzbek vehicle exports, with GM Uzebkistan selling just 10,357 vehicles in Russia over H115, down by 57% y-o-y,
Russian carmaker Lada retains local market leadership in Kazakhstan, although it is losing market share to other competitors from both Asia and Europe.
We believe that GM Uzbekistan's virtual monopoly on new car sales in that country will prevent any significant investment from other automakers into 2016.
Russian truckmakers GAZ and UAZ remain the two leading players in the Kazakh CV market.
The Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Kazakhstani, Uzbekistani automotives market.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.