Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan Petrochemicals Report

Published 09 December 2014

  • 70 pages
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Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan Petrochemicals Report

Russia's economic problems stemming from its trade war with the West are having a negative impact on the Central Asian petrochemicals market with Kazakhstan's imports dropping sharply in 2014. BMI's latest Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Petrochemicals Report anticipates further falls in imports as both states prepare for a surge in capacity in 2016.

Both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will have sufficient production to cover domestic needs with a surplus likely to stimulate polymers conversion and boost exports. The Central Asian market is robust and growing fast, providing a sound basis for new petrochemicals capacities.

Most consumption will be focused on finished products with a lack of domestic plastics converters to fulfil demand. This could change as domestic petrochemicals capacities evolve, enabling local sourcing of cheap raw material for the manufacturing of end products.

  • The ongoing USD6bn modernisation of Kazakhstan's refining sector, combined with the construction of several smaller scale refineries, is expected to increase Kazakhstan's refining capacity by 14.7% to 2023.

  • In 2016, Kazakhstan is set to complete construction of a major petrochemicals complex in the Atyrau region that is designed to produce 1mn tpa of ethylene, 500,000tpa propylene, 500,000tpa polypropylene (PP) 400,000tpa of low density polyethylene (LDPE) 400,000tpa of linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) and high-density polyethylene (HDPE).

  • Uzbekistan should also begin operations in 2016 at an ethane cracker with capacity to produce 400,000tpa of ethylene as well as downstream units with capacity for 400,000tpa HDPE and 100,000tpa PP.

  • In 2014, Central Asia's petrochemicals capacities include 240,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) ethylene, 125,000tpa polyethylene (PE) and 120,000tpa polypropylene (PP). These capacities are set to surge over the next five years as a result of planned developments in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. By 2019, Central Asia will have olefins capacities of 1.64mn tpa...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Kazakhstan Snapshot
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Kazakhstan 2014-2019)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Kazakhstan 2019-2024)
10
Table: Kazakhstan Snapshot: Power Sector
10
Kazakhstan Forecast Scenario
11
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2013-2018)
11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2019-2024)
12
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2013-2018)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2019-2024)
14
Electricity Consumption
20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2013-2018)
20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2019-2024)
20
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports
21
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2013-2018)
21
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2019-2024)
21
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2013-2018)
21
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2019-2024)
22
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
24
Industry Risk Reward Index
24
Kazakhstan Power Risk/Reward Index
29
Rewards
29
Risks
29
Market Overview
31
Key Policies And Market Structure
31
Regulation and Competition
31
Pricing
32
Kazakhstan Power Projects Database
33
Table: Major Projects - Power
33
Competitive Landscape
35
Samruk-Energo
35
KEGOC
35
AES
36
Company Profile
37
Kazakhstan Power Report Q3 2015
Kazakhstan Power Report Q3 2015
- Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
- Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Samruk-Energo
37
Regional Overview
40
CEE Power Regional Overview
40
Glossary
47
Table: Glossary Of Terms
47
Methodology
48
Industry Forecast Methodology
48
Sources
51
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
51
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
52
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
53

The Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Kazakhstani, Uzbekistani petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Kazakhstani, Uzbekistani petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Kazakhstani, Uzbekistani petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering the petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the petrochemicals sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Energy: Oil production (‘000 b/d), oil consumption (‘000 b/d), net oil exports (‘000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (‘000 b/d).
  • Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), ethylene production (‘000 tpa), ethylene consumption (‘000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (‘000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (‘000 tpa).
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (USD/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic: Nominal GDP (USDbn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (USD), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against USD).

BMI’s Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (both corporate and financial) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global & Regional Market Overview

Analysis of the key trends driving the global industry, including worldwide output/capacity and demand analysis across ethylene, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate and polypropylene. The regional analysis looks at the implications of local and global trends on specific company activity.

Sub-sectors covered by the Petrochemicals Reports include:

Oil & Gas, Oil Refining, Olefins (ethylene, propylene), Polyolefins (polyethylene, polypropylene), Polyvinyl Chloride, Polystyrene

Please note – not all country Reports cover all sub-sectors – see website for details.

Sources

The Petrochemicals Market Reports are based on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (ACC, APLA, Cefi c, ICCA, ICMA), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offi ces, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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