Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 21 April 2015

  • 109 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: While the Kenyan government is focused on improving its population's access to healthcare, drugmakers and medical device companies looking for a rapid return on investment will face challenges. Inefficiencies such as the lack of suitable infrastructure and delayed completion of health facility upgrades, the lack of human resources such as nurses and doctors, and a slower than anticipated uptake of the national health insurance programmes will inhibit spending on healthcare and the success of initiatives such as the waiving of maternity fees, the achievement of healthcare-related Millennium Development Goals and the success of healthcare projects that are part of Kenya Vision 2030.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: KES63.75bn (USD725mn) in 2014 to KES73.36bn (USD791mn) in 2015; 15.1% growth in local currency terms and 9.2% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: KES190.34bn (USD2.16bn) in 2014 to KES212.85bn (USD2.30bn) in 2015; 11.8% growth in local currency terms and 6.1% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Index

In BMI's Q315 Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Risk/Reward Index, Kenya is 19th in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. A large counterfeit drug industry, poor healthcare funding, corruption, regulatory deficiencies and a number of other issues will conspire to keep Kenya in a low position in the MEA matrix. Nevertheless, in comparison with many other African markets, most of which are not surveyed by BMI, Kenya offers greater commercial promise and a more stable overall business environment.

Key Trends And Developments

In March 2015, the World Bank urged Kenya to increase its investment in the health sector to take advantage of the country's potential. The country's lack of investment in the health sector has serious implications for Kenya's urgent healthcare problems, according to the head of the World Bank Group's Health in Africa Initiative, Khama Rogo.

Also in March, it was reported that Kenya-based Equity Bank is exploring...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Industry Forecast
12
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
12
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2010-2018)
13
Healthcare Market Forecast
14
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2010-2018)
16
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2010-2018)
16
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2010-2018)
17
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
18
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2010-2018)
19
Patented Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2010-2018)
20
Generic Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2010-2018)
22
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
23
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2010-2018)
24
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
25
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2018)
26
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Kenya 2012-2018)
26
Other Healthcare Data
27
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
30
Macroeconomic Forecasts
32
Economic Analysis
32
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Kenya 2011-2018)
37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
39
Middle East & Africa Risk/Reward Index
39
Kenya Risk/Reward Index
46
Rewards
46
Risks
46
Market Overview
48
Industry Trends And Developments
50
Epidemiology
50
Healthcare Provision
53
Healthcare Sector Financing
53
Health Insurance
55
Private Healthcare
58
Supply Chain
60
Research & Development
61
Clinical Trials
64
Regulatory Development
66
Regulatory Regime
66
Intellectual Property
67
Pricing & Reimbursement Regime
67
Competitive Landscape
70
Pharmaceutical Industry Activity
72
Company Profile
75
Dawa Limited
75
Universal Corporation Limited
77
Shelys Pharmaceuticals
79
Regal Pharmaceuticals
81
High Chem East Africa
82
GlaxoSmithKline
83
Pfizer
86
Novartis
89
Sanofi
92
Merck & Co
94
Demographic Forecast
96
Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
97
Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
98
Table: Kenya's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
99
Table: Kenya's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
99
Glossary
100
Methodology
102
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
102
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
102
Notes On Methodology
103
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
104
Index Overview
105
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
105
Indicator Weightings
106

The Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Kenya pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Kenya, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Kenyan pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Kenyan pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kenya.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc