BMI View: It is vital that companies that are looking to sell non-communicable disease therapeutics work alongside the public sector and focus on physician education and patient awareness in a market that has traditionally focussed on infectious diseases such as malaria, tuberculosis and HIV. Besides challenges related to diagnosis, care and treatment, there is a lack of understanding and knowledge about diseases such as diabetes and cardiovascular disease among healthcare professionals and the general population, and a perception that such diseases are not as critical as other diseases affecting the country.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: KES73.34bn (USD750mn) in 2015 to KES84.04bn (USD830mn) in 2016; 14.6% growth in local currency terms and 10.8% in US dollar terms.
Healthcare: KES341.18bn (USD3.47bn) in 2015 to KES377.30 (USD3.71bn) in 2016; 10.6% growth in local currency terms and 7.0% in US dollar terms.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.720||0.750||0.830||0.930||1.020||1.140||1.280|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.19||1.22||1.24||1.27||1.27||1.26||1.25|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||20.8||21.5||22.3||23.1||23.8||24.6||25.5|
|Health spending, USDbn||3.480||3.470||3.710||4.010||4.300||4.620||5.040|
In BMI's Q416 Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Risk/Reward Index, Kenya is 18th in the Middle East and Africa region scoring 36.9 out of 100, below the regional average score of 40.4 . A large counterfeit drug industry, poor healthcare funding, corruption, regulatory deficiencies and a number of other issues will conspire to keep Kenya in a low position in the MEA matrix. Nevertheless, in comparison with many other African markets, most of which are not surveyed by BMI, Kenya offers greater commercial promise and a more stable overall business environment.
In July 2016, it was reported that Apollo Hospitals - the largest healthcare group from India, has inked Memorandum's of Understanding to enhance the healthcare cooperation with Kenya.
In July 2016, Sidian Bank and the Medical Credit Fund (MCF) announced a KES4bn medical financing agreement in support of private healthcare service providers in Kenya.
Highlighting the Kenyan government's focus on boosting the local production of medicines, in July 2016, Health Cabinet Secretary Cleopa Mailu said his ministry and that of Industrialization & Enterprise Development are working on a package that will boost the local production of medicines to take on cheap imports from India and China.
BMI Economic View
The general election scheduled for August 2017 will see the reduction in Kenya's fiscal deficit stall over the coming quarters, as the government looks to increase recurrent expenditure in an effort to buy votes and security. However, this will not deter from a general trend of fiscal consolidation over our longer-term outlook as the government peels back large-scale infrastructure spending.
BMI Political View
Political instability will weigh on growth over the coming quarters, causing real GDP growth to dip below 6.0% in 2017 as levels of tourism and inward investment see mild decline. However, a more stable shilling and low inflation will boost production incentives amongst businesses as input costs are controlled in a climate of robust demand.
The Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Kenya pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Kenya, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Kenyan pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Kenyan pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kenya.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.