BMI View: While Kenya 's underdeveloped healthcare infrastructure is not conducive to clinical trials (only 14 clinical trials were registered in 2014), the country, as with other markets in the region, can offer numerous benefits to drugmakers looking to conduct clinical trials - including access to large, treatment-naive populations. BMI notes that this feature is vital in clinical trials as it reduces data variability. Furthermore, Africa has the world's highest population of HIV-positive patients and has a high burden of communicable diseases. With the vaccine industry experiencing rejuvenation through globally-funded alliances, providing cheaper immunisation programmes for developing countries, conducting clinical trials in selected sub-populations such as those in Kenya will become increasingly important.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: KES63.75bn (USD725mn) in 2014 to KES73.74bn (USD742mn) in 2015; 15.1% growth in local currency terms and 2.4% in US dollar terms.
Healthcare: KES190.42bn (USD2.17bn) in 2014 to KES213.03bn (USD2.16bn) in 2015; 11.9% growth in local currency terms and -0.4% in US dollar terms.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.642||0.725||0.742||0.765||0.851||0.961||1.083|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.17||1.19||1.19||1.20||1.21||1.21||1.21|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||32.5||33.5||34.4||35.2||36.0||36.8||37.5|
|Health spending, USDbn||1.974||2.165||2.156||2.171||2.362||2.614||2.888|
In BMI's Q116 Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Risk/Reward Index, Kenya is 18th in the Middle East and Africa region scoring 37.1 out of 100, below the regional average score of 40.3 . A large counterfeit drug industry, poor healthcare funding, corruption, regulatory deficiencies and a number of other issues will conspire to keep Kenya in a low position in the MEA matrix. Nevertheless, in comparison with many other African markets, most of which are not surveyed by BMI, Kenya offers greater commercial promise and a more stable overall business environment.
In September 2015, Kenya's Central Organisation of Trade Unions (COTU) announced its support of calls to have healthcare services transferred back to the national government. COTU's Secretary-General Francis Atwoli stated that he has observed that many problems have weighed down the health sector after the services were devolved.
In September 2015, Dutch healthcare and elections biometrics firm GenKey announced that it has deployed a biometric identity management solution to the National Hospital Insurance Fund (NHIF) of Kenya.
In August 2015, the Kenyan National Treasury's Cabinet Secretary Henry Rotich signed a KES3.2bn (USD31.08mn) health sector loan with the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) which will go towards the attainment of universal health coverage, according to the JICA Kenya office.
BMI Economic View
Despite rising headwinds, economic growth in Kenya is gathering steam. Data released by Kenya National Bureau of Statistics on September 30 showed real GDP expanded by 5.5% y-o-y in Q2 from 4.9% y-o-y the previous quarter. The improving growth figures are consistent with recent high frequency data and support our view that economic momentum in Kenya is building. While the effects of the heavy currency depreciation and associated monetary tightening seen over the course of 2015 are still filtering through, we expect growth to remain relatively resilient.
BMI Political View
While Kenya's next general election is not until August 2017, electoral manoeuvrings have begun. At this stage, we believe that another term for President Uhuru Kenyatta is the most likely electoral outcome, but caution that the consequences of the government's political and economic mismanagement are increasingly coming to the fore.
The Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Kenya pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Kenya, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Kenyan pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Kenyan pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kenya.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.