Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 05 August 2015

  • 101 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Our outlook for Kenya's pharmac eutical expenditure is positive and will be driven by expanding national health insurance coverage and improving public healthcare provision. While the Kenyan government is focused on improving its population's access to healthcare, drugmakers and medical device companies looking for a rapid return on investment will face challenges. Poor healthcare human resources and infrastructure will continue to limit the population ' s access to healthcare.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: KES63.75bn (USD725mn) in 2014 to KES73.37bn (USD768mn) in 2015; 15.1% growth in local currency terms and 5.9% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: KES190.34bn (USD2.16bn) in 2014 to KES212.93bn (USD2.23bn) in 2015; 11.8% growth in local currency terms and 2.9% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Index

In BMI's Q415 Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Risk/Reward Index, Kenya is 19th in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. A large counterfeit drug industry, poor healthcare funding, corruption, regulatory deficiencies and a number of other issues will conspire to keep Kenya in a low position in the MEA matrix. Nevertheless, in comparison with many other African markets, most of which are not surveyed by BMI, Kenya offers greater commercial promise and a more stable overall business environment.

Key Trends And Developments

In July 2015, Swiss drugmaker Novartis announced a collaboration with Strathmore University in Kenya on the Community Health Educator Replication (CHER) programme to train healthcare workers in the country.

In June 2015, it was announced that the cost of medicines in Kenya is set to fall as the result of a number of non-profit organisations teaming up to jointly procure medicines, benefiting from economies of scale.

On June 11 2015, Treasury Cabinet Secretary Henry Rotich presented Kenya's expansionary budget for the 2015/2016 fiscal year, which began on July 1 2015. With regards to healthcare, a total of KES59bn...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2011-2019)
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2011-2019)
17
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2011-2019)
17
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2011-2019)
18
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
19
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2011-2019)
20
Patented Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2011-2019)
22
Generic Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2011-2019)
23
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
24
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2011-2019)
25
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
26
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2013-2019)
27
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Kenya 2013-2019)
28
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
29
Macroeconomic Forecasts
30
Economic Analysis
30
Table: Economic Activity (Kenya 2010-2019)
35
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
36
Middle East and Africa Risk/Reward Index - Q4 2015
36
Kenya Risk/Reward Index
43
Rewards
43
Risks
43
Market Overview
45
Industry Trends And Developments
46
Epidemiology
46
Healthcare Sector
48
Table: Healthcare Resources (Kenya 2009-2014)
49
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Kenya 2009-2014)
49
Table: Healthcare Activity (Kenya 2009-2014)
50
Research & Development
55
Clinical Trials
56
Regulatory Development
58
Intellectual Property Issues
59
Pricing & Reimbursement Regime
59
Competitive Landscape
61
Pharmaceutical Distribution
63
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
66
Company Profile
67
Beta Healthcare
67
Dawa Limited
69
GlaxoSmithKline
71
High Chem East Africa
75
Merck & Co
76
Novartis
78
Pfizer
81
Regal Pharmaceuticals
84
Sanofi
85
Universal Corporation Limited
87
Demographic Forecast
89
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kenya 1990-2025)
90
Table: Key Population Ratios (Kenya 1990-2025)
90
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Kenya 1990-2025)
91
Table: Population By Age Group (Kenya 1990-2025)
91
Table: Population By Age Group % (Kenya 1990-2025)
92
Glossary
94
Methodology
96
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
96
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
96
Notes On Methodology
97
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
98
Index Overview
99
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
99
Indicator Weightings
100

The Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Kenya pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Kenya, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Kenyan pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Kenyan pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kenya.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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