Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Many emerging market economies are increasingly exposed to the negative effect of sustained lower commodity prices. This is putting downward pressure on government finances and, as a consequence, healthcare budgets. We nevertheless maintain a positive long-term outlook for medicine demand in emerging markets such a s Kenya , as access widens through the expansion of reimbursement lists and greater investment in hospitals and clinics.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: KES73.34bn (USD746mn) in 2015 to KES83.97bn (USD806mn) in 2016; 14.5% growth in local currency terms and 8.0% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: KES341.15bn (USD3.47bn) in 2015 to KES377.09 (USD3.62bn) in 2016; 10.5% growth in local currency terms and 4.3% in US dollar terms.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Kenya 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 0.720 0.750 0.810 0.880 0.960 1.060 1.190
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 1.19 1.22 1.25 1.28 1.29 1.28 1.27
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 20.8 21.5 22.3 23.0 23.8 24.6 25.5
Health spending, USDbn 3.480 3.470 3.620 3.800 4.010 4.320 4.670

Risk/Reward Index

In BMI's Q216 Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Risk/Reward Index, Kenya is 20th in the Middle East and Africa region scoring 38.1 out of 100, below the regional average score of 36.9 . A large counterfeit drug industry, poor healthcare funding, corruption, regulatory deficiencies and a number of other issues will conspire to keep Kenya in a low position in the MEA matrix. Nevertheless, in comparison with many other African markets, most of which are not surveyed by BMI, Kenya offers greater commercial promise and a more stable overall business environment.

Latest Updates

  • In January 2016, it was reported that a new report by the Kenya Medical Practitioners Pharmacists and Dentists Union (KMPDU), which carried out an audit of the number of doctors in public facilities, indicated the number of doctors has dropped to 3,956 serving more than 40mn Kenyans, many of whom cannot afford the cost of services in private health facilities.

  • In January 2016, the Pharmacy and Poisons Board stated that it will soon release a code where Kenyans can send text messages and receive prompt and specific responses about drugs, including registration status and safety.

  • In March 2016, it was reported that telecare is having a dramatic impact on the way health care is delivered to both urban and rural communities in Kenya. In January 2016, it was reported that the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) has introduced a new package that will cover patients with chronic diseases, specifically catering towards diabetes, hypertension and cancer.

BMI Economic View

The Kenyan economy will expand robustly in the coming decade, driven by infrastructure investment and a strengthening services sector. A growing and increasingly well-connected population will ensure Kenya remains among Sub-Saharan Africa's most dynamic and innovative economies.

BMI Political View

The case of Kenya's 'missing eurobond' is proving particularly damaging for the government amid growing signs that the patience of investors and ordinary Kenyans is running thin.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Kenya 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
10
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2020)
11
Healthcare Market Forecast
13
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2020)
14
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2020)
15
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2020)
15
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
16
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2020)
17
Patented Drug Market Forecast
18
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2020)
19
Generic Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2020)
21
OTC Medicines Market Forecast
22
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2020)
23
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
24
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2014-2020)
25
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Kenya 2014-2020)
26
Industry Risk Reward Index
27
Middle East and Africa Risk/Reward Index - Q3 2016
27
Kenya Risk/Reward Index
35
Rewards
35
Risks
36
Regulatory Review
37
Intellectual Property Issues
38
Pricing & Reimbursement Regime
38
Market Overview
40
Healthcare Sector
40
Table: Healthcare Resources (Kenya 2010-2015)
42
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Kenya 2010-2015)
42
Table: Healthcare Activity (Kenya 2010-2015)
43
Research & Development
51
Clinical Trials
52
Epidemiology
54
Competitive Landscape
57
Research-Based Industry
57
Table: Multinational Market Activity
58
Pharmaceutical Distribution
59
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
61
Company Profile
63
GlaxoSmithKline
63
Merck & Co
66
Novartis
68
Pfizer
71
Sanofi
74
Demographic Forecast
76
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kenya 1990-2025)
77
Table: Key Population Ratios (Kenya 1990-2025)
77
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Kenya 1990-2025)
78
Table: Population By Age Group (Kenya 1990-2025)
78
Table: Population By Age Group % (Kenya 1990-2025)
79
Glossary
81
Methodology
83
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
83
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
83
Notes On Methodology
84
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
85
Index Overview
86
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
86
Indicator Weightings
87

The Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Kenya pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Kenya, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Kenyan pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Kenyan pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kenya.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.