Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 21 April 2015

  • 109 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: While the Kenyan government is focused on improving its population's access to healthcare, drugmakers and medical device companies looking for a rapid return on investment will face challenges. Inefficiencies such as the lack of suitable infrastructure and delayed completion of health facility upgrades, the lack of human resources such as nurses and doctors, and a slower than anticipated uptake of the national health insurance programmes will inhibit spending on healthcare and the success of initiatives such as the waiving of maternity fees, the achievement of healthcare-related Millennium Development Goals and the success of healthcare projects that are part of Kenya Vision 2030.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: KES63.75bn (USD725mn) in 2014 to KES73.36bn (USD791mn) in 2015; 15.1% growth in local currency terms and 9.2% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: KES190.34bn (USD2.16bn) in 2014 to KES212.85bn (USD2.30bn) in 2015; 11.8% growth in local currency terms and 6.1% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Index

In BMI's Q315 Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Risk/Reward Index, Kenya is 19th in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. A large counterfeit drug industry, poor healthcare funding, corruption, regulatory deficiencies and a number of other issues will conspire to keep Kenya in a low position in the MEA matrix. Nevertheless, in comparison with many other African markets, most of which are not surveyed by BMI, Kenya offers greater commercial promise and a more stable overall business environment.

Key Trends And Developments

In March 2015, the World Bank urged Kenya to increase its investment in the health sector to take advantage of the country's potential. The country's lack of investment in the health sector has serious implications for Kenya's urgent healthcare problems, according to the head of the World Bank Group's Health in Africa Initiative, Khama Rogo.

Also in March, it was reported that Kenya-based Equity Bank is exploring...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2011-2019)
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2011-2019)
17
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2011-2019)
18
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2011-2019)
18
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
19
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2011-2019)
20
Patented Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2011-2019)
22
Generic Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2011-2019)
23
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
24
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2011-2019)
25
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
26
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2013-2019)
27
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Kenya 2013-2019)
28
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
29
Macroeconomic Forecasts
31
Economic Analysis
31
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Kenya 2012-2019)
37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
38
Middle East And Africa Risk/Reward Index
38
Kenya Risk/Reward Index
45
Rewards
45
Risks
45
Market Overview
47
Industry Trends And Developments
49
Epidemiology
49
Healthcare Sector
51
Table: Healthcare Resources (Kenya 2009-2014)
52
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Kenya 2009-2014)
52
Table: Healthcare Activity (Kenya 2009-2014)
53
Research & Development
60
Clinical Trials
62
Regulatory Development
66
Intellectual Property Issues
67
Pricing & Reimbursement Regime
67
Competitive Landscape
70
Pharmaceutical Distribution
73
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
75
Company Profile
76
Beta Healthcare
76
Dawa Limited
78
GlaxoSmithKline
80
High Chem East Africa
83
Merck & Co
84
Novartis
86
Pfizer
89
Regal Pharmaceuticals
92
Sanofi
93
Universal Corporation Limited
95
Demographic Forecast
97
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kenya 1990-2025)
98
Table: Key Population Ratios (Kenya 1990-2025)
98
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Kenya 1990-2025)
99
Table: Population By Age Group (Kenya 1990-2025)
99
Table: Population By Age Group % (Kenya 1990-2025)
100
Glossary
102
Methodology
104
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
104
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
104
Notes On Methodology
105
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
106
Index Overview
107
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
107
Indicator Weightings
108

The Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Kenya pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Kenya, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Kenyan pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Kenyan pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kenya.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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