BMI View: Drugmaker revenue earning opportunities in Kenya will continue to be restricted. Some progress has been made towards addressing equity challenges, but universal coverage - and subsequently a decline in the reli ance of out-of-pocket spending - will not be achieved unless the country adopts a systemic approach to health financing reforms.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: KES73.35bn (USD746mn) in 2015 to KES83.84bn (USD797mn) in 2016; 14.3% growth in local currency terms and 6.8% in US dollar terms.
Healthcare: KES212.59bn (USD2.16bn) in 2015 to KES237.32bn (USD2.26bn) in 2016; 11.6% growth in local currency terms and 4.3% in US dollar terms.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.725||0.746||0.797||0.873||0.969||1.075||1.187|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.19||1.20||1.21||1.23||1.23||1.22||1.21|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||33.5||34.5||35.3||36.1||36.8||37.3||37.7|
|Health spending, USDbn||2.164||2.163||2.257||2.416||2.636||2.883||3.149|
In BMI's Q216 Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Risk/Reward Index, Kenya is 18th in the Middle East and Africa region scoring 38.1 out of 100, below the regional average score of 41.3 . A large counterfeit drug industry, poor healthcare funding, corruption, regulatory deficiencies and a number of other issues will conspire to keep Kenya in a low position in the MEA matrix. Nevertheless, in comparison with many other African markets, most of which are not surveyed by BMI, Kenya offers greater commercial promise and a more stable overall business environment.
In February 2016, the National Treasury stated that Kenya's national budget for the financial year 2016/2017 will concentrate on education and health sectors but also investments in energy and infrastructure will play a major role.
In January 2016, it was reported that the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) has introduced a new package that will cover patients with chronic diseases - specifically diabetes, hypertension and cancer will be catered for.
In November 2015, Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to work together on the transfer of skills to strengthen Kenya's capacity to provide specialised health services.
BMI Economic View
Economic conditions in Kenya are set to improve on the whole over the next 12 months, with real GDP growth quickening slightly in 2016 to 5.9% from an estimated 5.6% in 2015, according to our forecasts. The latest data from the Kenyan National Bureau of Statistics indicate that economic growth in the country remained resilient through a turbulent 2015 characterised by significant currency instability and an aggressive bout of monetary tightening.
BMI Political View
The case of Kenya's 'missing eurobond' is proving particularly damaging for the government amid growing signs that the patience of investors and ordinary Kenyans is running thin.
The Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Kenya pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Kenya, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Kenyan pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Kenyan pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kenya.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.