BMI View: Many emerging market economies are increasingly exposed to the negative effect of sustained lower commodity prices. This is putting downward pressure on government finances and, as a consequence, healthcare budgets. We nevertheless maintain a positive long-term outlook for medicine demand in emerging markets such a s Kenya , as access widens through the expansion of reimbursement lists and greater investment in hospitals and clinics.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: KES73.34bn (USD746mn) in 2015 to KES83.97bn (USD806mn) in 2016; 14.5% growth in local currency terms and 8.0% in US dollar terms.
Healthcare: KES341.15bn (USD3.47bn) in 2015 to KES377.09 (USD3.62bn) in 2016; 10.5% growth in local currency terms and 4.3% in US dollar terms.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.720||0.750||0.810||0.880||0.960||1.060||1.190|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.19||1.22||1.25||1.28||1.29||1.28||1.27|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||20.8||21.5||22.3||23.0||23.8||24.6||25.5|
|Health spending, USDbn||3.480||3.470||3.620||3.800||4.010||4.320||4.670|
In BMI's Q216 Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Risk/Reward Index, Kenya is 20th in the Middle East and Africa region scoring 38.1 out of 100, below the regional average score of 36.9 . A large counterfeit drug industry, poor healthcare funding, corruption, regulatory deficiencies and a number of other issues will conspire to keep Kenya in a low position in the MEA matrix. Nevertheless, in comparison with many other African markets, most of which are not surveyed by BMI, Kenya offers greater commercial promise and a more stable overall business environment.
In January 2016, it was reported that a new report by the Kenya Medical Practitioners Pharmacists and Dentists Union (KMPDU), which carried out an audit of the number of doctors in public facilities, indicated the number of doctors has dropped to 3,956 serving more than 40mn Kenyans, many of whom cannot afford the cost of services in private health facilities.
In January 2016, the Pharmacy and Poisons Board stated that it will soon release a code where Kenyans can send text messages and receive prompt and specific responses about drugs, including registration status and safety.
In March 2016, it was reported that telecare is having a dramatic impact on the way health care is delivered to both urban and rural communities in Kenya. In January 2016, it was reported that the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) has introduced a new package that will cover patients with chronic diseases, specifically catering towards diabetes, hypertension and cancer.
BMI Economic View
The Kenyan economy will expand robustly in the coming decade, driven by infrastructure investment and a strengthening services sector. A growing and increasingly well-connected population will ensure Kenya remains among Sub-Saharan Africa's most dynamic and innovative economies.
BMI Political View
The case of Kenya's 'missing eurobond' is proving particularly damaging for the government amid growing signs that the patience of investors and ordinary Kenyans is running thin.
The Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Kenya pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Kenya, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Kenyan pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Kenyan pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kenya.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.