BMI View: Kenya will emerge as the fifth largest geothermal market in the world by 2020, as the strong project pipeline gradually materialises and the government prioritises the exploitation of its vast geothermal resources. A large project pipeline across the geothermal, solar and wind segments will more than double the country's renewable power generating capacity over our 10-year forecast period.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||5.010||5.260||5.420||7.360||7.480||8.730||8.860||8.960||9.090||9.230||9.500|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||64.220||4.950||3.150||35.760||1.610||16.720||1.430||1.150||1.500||1.450||3.020|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||700.5||770.1||820.1||1,394.7||1,394.7||1,639.8||1,639.8||1,639.8||1,639.8||1,639.8||1,639.8|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||5.6||9.9||6.5||70.1||0.0||17.6||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
In March 2016, it was announced that the Japanese government and the Japan International Cooperation Agency signed a USD408mn loan agreement with Kenya to fund construction of a 140MW geothermal power plant.
In May 2016, it was announced that a 40MW photovoltaic (PV) power plant is set to be built in Kenya's Makueni County, according to the county's Vision 2025 plan. The solar plant will be linked to the national grid.
The first phase of a project to interconnect the national electricity grid of Tanzania to that of Zambia and Kenya is expected to be completed in September 2016. The power connector project will link the East African Power Pool to the Southern African Power Pool. The African Development Bank and the Japan International Cooperation Agency, among others, are funding the scheme.
The 60.8MW Kinangop wind project was shelved in February 2016. The USD147.4mn project was scheduled to be completed by mid-2015, but the delay caused by the local protests has reportedly led to the depletion of project funds.
The Kenya Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Kenya. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Kenya, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Kenya, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Kenya Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Kenya renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Kenya to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Kenya renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Kenya, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.