BMI View: Our outlook for the renewables industry in Kenya is bullish. The industry is already relatively well developed, the country boasts a strong project pipeline across the geothermal, solar and wind segments and the government remains committed to diversifying its power mix away from diesel and hydropower.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydro Renewables, TWh||3.06||4.12||4.17||4.20||5.79||7.81||7.94||8.98||9.11||9.29||9.64|
|Generation, Non-Hydro Renewables, % y-o-y||54.50||34.68||1.13||0.92||37.67||34.85||1.73||13.14||1.41||1.94||3.75|
|Capacity, Non-Hydro Renewables, MW||468.4||611.1||616.5||619.4||1,074.5||1,410.1||1,412.8||1,607.3||1,614.4||1,619.8||1,623.0|
|Capacity, Non-Hydro Renewables, % y-o-y||78.2||30.5||0.9||0.5||73.5||31.2||0.2||13.8||0.4||0.3||0.2|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
Construction at the Lake Turkana wind power plant in May marks a major milestone for the flagship wind project. We have factored in the completion of the project into our 2018 forecasts - a delay of one year - in light of the numerous risks facing the construction phase of the project.
State-owned entity Tana & Athi Rivers Development Authority (TARDA) plan to construct a 320MW solar PV farm in central Kenya over the coming three years. The authority will develop the USD469.8mn project in collaboration with Hitachi India and Ultra Clean Energy Solutions.
The 60.2MW Kinangop wind farm development was suspended in March 2015, due to strong local opposition to the project.
Maralal Energy plan to build a 60MW wind farm in Buuri Constituency, Meru County costing USD43.6mn. The plant will be interconnected with the Kenya Electricity Transmission Company grid, through a substation located within 2km from the project site.
Kenya's Geothermal Development Company has called for investors to develop 300MW of geothermal capacity in the Suswa region of the Kenyan Rift Valley. The project (which is likely to comprise three 100MW plants) is scheduled for development between 2016 and 2018.
The Kenya Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Kenya. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Kenya, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Kenya, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Kenya Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Kenya renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Kenya to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Kenya renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Kenya, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.