BMI View: Kenya will emerge as the second largest non-hydro renewables market in SSA over the course of the decade, as the government's ongoing commitment to the sector and the country's significant geothermal potential, will drive growth. In terms of contribution to the electricity mix, non-hydro renewables will contribute over 50% to the total, the highest of any country in SSA.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||5.010||5.236||5.379||7.294||7.385||8.634||8.757||8.851||8.970||9.077||9.318|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||64.207||4.520||2.729||35.596||1.255||16.906||1.423||1.074||1.350||1.195||2.653|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||687.5||756.5||806.5||1,376.5||1,376.5||1,618.5||1,618.5||1,618.5||1,618.5||1,618.5||1,618.5|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||70.3||10.0||6.6||70.7||0.0||17.6||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
It was announced in February 2016, that Ormat Technologies has increased capacity at its Olkaria III geothermal power complex, by opening the 29MW fourth power plant of the complex. The fourth plant has raised total capacity at the complex to 139MW. Furthermore, a deal was also signed with KPLC in October 2015 to expand capacity of Plant 4 to 100MW.
The 60.8MW Kinangop wind project in Nyandarua County was shelved in February 2016. The USD147.4mn project was scheduled to be completed by mid-2015, but the delay caused by the local protests has reportedly led to the depletion of project funds.
In January 2016, it was announced that China Machinery Engineering Corporation (CMEC) secured a turnkey contract, worth USD221mn, from Kipeto Energy to construct a 102MW wind park in Kenya.
Village-level solar-powered microgrids will support electrification efforts in Kenya - and the wider SSA region, as convenience and the growing competitiveness of off-grid systems will help the region overcome the issues associated with centralised power grids.
The Kenya Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Kenya. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Kenya, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Kenya, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Kenya Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Kenya renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Kenya to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Kenya renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Kenya, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.