Kenya Telecommunications Report

Published 22 May 2015

  • 96 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Kenya Telecommunications Report

BMI View: Kenya's telecoms sector is set to mature significantly over the coming years, as consolidation in the mobile sector eases price competition and enables operators to focus more on higher quality and a broader range of services. In the wireline sector, healthy competition between several well-funded operators is resulting in continued investment in fibre networks, to cater to consumer, enterprise and government demand for broadband services capable of supporting data-intensive services such as video on demand and cloud computing. Although the wireless sector too is expected to exhibit strong growth over the forecast period, BMI notes that recent state intervention in the mobile sector is a worrying development. On the upside, investments into the 3G/4G sector are expected to bode well for the data services consumption.

Key Data

  • Kenya's mobile market grew by 2.6% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q414 and 7.4% y-o-y to 33.633mn.

  • Mobile ARPU appreciation continued in 2014, with Safaricom recording a 5.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in mobile average revenue per user (ARPU) in the 12 months to September 2014.

  • The rate of contraction in the fixed-line sector eased in 9M14, with number of active lines decreasing by 8.6% q-o-q in Q314, compared to 15.1% in Q313.

  • The number of internet users in Kenya increased by 10.8% in the 3 months to December 2014 to 16.4mn.

Risk/Reward Index

Kenya pulled ahead by one spot to ninth on BMI's Q315 Sub-Saharan Africa telecoms Risk/Reward Index (RRI), although the country's aggregate score dropped slightly from 47.4 to 46.7. Kenya scores above average in all the four categories on our ratings table. The industry rewards score is brought down by low ARPUs, but buoyed by strong remaining subscription growth opportunities. Meanwhile the launch of a more powerful telecoms regulator, the Communications Authority of Kenya (CA) in 2014 reflects the industry risks score of 70. Kenya's mobile telecoms market is one of...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Mobile
9
Wireline
11
Political
13
Economic
14
Operational Risk
15
Industry Forecast
17
Mobile
17
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2019)
17
Wireline
21
Table: Telecoms Sector - Wireline - Historical Data & Forecasts (Kenya 2013-2019)
21
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
23
Table: SSA Risk/Reward Index - Q315
27
Market Overview
29
Mobile
29
Table: Regional Comparison
30
Key Developments
30
Mobile Growth
31
Table: Kenya Mobile Market
34
Table: Postpaid Vs Prepaid Subscriptions ('000)
35
Networks
36
Mobile Content
38
Mobile Operator Tables
43
Table: Market Overview
43
Table: Safaricom
43
Table: Airtel
44
Table: Orange
44
Table: YU
45
Mobile Content
46
Table: Selected Value-Added Services Developments, October 2014-January 2015
48
Wireline
50
Table: Internet Subscriptions By Technology
55
Table: Fixed/Fixed Wireless Broadband Market
56
Table: Selected Wireline Developments
59
Industry Trends And Developments
61
Regulatory Development
63
Table: Kenya: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
63
Competitive Landscape
70
Table: Key Players - Kenya Telecoms Sector
70
Table: Selected Operator Financial Indicators - Revenue (USDmn)
70
Company Profile
71
Telkom Kenya
71
Safaricom
76
Regional Overview
81
Demographic Forecast
85
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kenya 1990-2025)
86
Table: Key Population Ratios (Kenya 1990-2025)
86
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Kenya 1990-2025)
87
Table: Population By Age Group (Kenya 1990-2025)
87
Table: Population By Age Group % (Kenya 1990-2025)
88
Glossary
90
Table: Glossary Of Terms
90
Methodology
92
Industry Forecast Methodology
92
Sources
94
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
94
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
95
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
96

The Kenya Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Kenya's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Kenya Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Kenya.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Kenya to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Kenyan telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Kenya's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kenya.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
  • Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
    Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc