Kenya Tourism Report

Quarterly report providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the tourism industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Tourism Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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Kenya Tourism Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Kenya's tourism sector is currently going through a slump. Traditionally the country has been a popular tourist destination due to its abundance of safari options and its beautiful beaches. Over the last few years however, Kenya has been the victim of a number of high profile terrorist attacks that have left many potential tourists with insecurities about the safety of travel. In the short term this will cause inbound tourist numbers to continue to decrease. The government are, however, making great efforts to improve national security in a bid to change its international image and the perceptions of some of its key markets, especially Europe (recently, both the UK and US lifted travel advisories against areas of Kenya) . For these reasons we forecast that arrivals will pick up in the mid- to long-term and begin to steadily increase. International tourism receipts will follow the same pattern as arrivals and should emerge from a period of decline into gradual increase. The hotel and restaurant industry will see very little growth, both in the short- and long-term. Kenya is such a well- established tourist destination that there is currently a saturation of accommodation options. Only when tourist numbers return to the same level as before the increased terror activity will there be demand for further developments in hotels and restaurants.

Key Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2019)
Indicator 2012 2013e 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
National Sources/BMI
Total arrivals, '000 1,710.83 1,519.60 1,337.25 1,230.27 1,168.76 1,209.66 1,255.02 1,361.00
Total arrivals, '000, % y-o-y -6.1 -11.2 -12.0 -8.0 -5.0 3.5 3.8 8.4
International tourism receipts, KESbn 258.72 266.31 233.23 229.27 247.72 276.44 304.75 357.63
International tourism receipts, KESbn, % y-o-y 9.3 2.9 -12.4 -1.7 8.0 11.6 10.2 17.4
International tourism receipts, USDbn 3.06 3.09 2.65 2.32 2.26 2.47 2.71 3.16
International tourism receipts, USDbn, % y-o-y 14.9 1.0 -14.2 -12.5 -2.5 9.1 9.8 16.8
Hotel and restaurant industry value, KESbn 56.34 49.56 49.44 50.93 52.60 54.91 58.20 61.19
Hotel and restaurant industry value, KESbn, % y-o-y 11.5 -12.0 -0.3 3.0 3.3 4.4 6.0 5.1
Hotel and restaurant industry value, USDbn 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Hotel and restaurant industry value, USDbn, % y-o-y 17.2 -13.7 -2.3 -8.3 -6.8 2.1 5.5 4.7

Key Updates A nd Forecasts

  • Inbound tourism is forecast to see growth from 2017. In the long term this growth will increase at a faster pace than previously expected, to hit 1.4mn by 2019.

  • By 2019, the higher number of inbound tourists will also push the international tourism receipts up, to USD3.16bn, a y-o-y rise of 16.83% from 2018 - 1.73% higher than the same forecast last quarter.

  • The hotel and restaurant industry value is expected to stay at USD0.5bn for the entire forecast period from 2015, a drop of USD0.1bn from the previous quarters forecast.

  • The Kenyan Tourist Board (KTB) has identified Nigeria as a market that has shown potential for tourism growth and, in December 2015, has been showcasing the country and meeting with potential trade partners in Lagos.

  • In December 2015 Kenya was voted the world's leading safari destination at the World Travel Awards (WTA), recognition that could boost the tourism sector.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Tourism
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Inbound Tourism
16
Table: Inbound Tourism (Kenya 2012-2019)
17
Table: Inbound Tourism, Top 10 Markets By Arrivals, '000 (Kenya 2012-2019)
18
Outbound Tourism
18
Table: Outbound Tourism (Kenya 2012-2019)
19
Table: Outbound Tourism, Top 10 Countries By Departures, '000 (Kenya 2012-2019)
20
Travel
20
Table: Receipts for Transport and Travel (Kenya 2012-2019)
21
Table: Breakdown of Methods of Tourist Travel (Kenya 2012-2019)
22
Hotels
22
Table: Hotel Accommodation (Kenya 2012-2019)
23
Table: Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value (Kenya 2012-2019)
24
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Industry Risk/Reward Index
25
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa - Tourism Industry Risk/Reward Index
25
Tourism Risk/Reward Index
26
Security Risk
27
Market Overview
29
Competitive Landscape
34
Domestic Hotel Groups
34
International Hotel Groups
36
Global Industry Overview
38
Global Assumptions
41
Global Macro Outlook
41
Table: Global Forecasts, 2014-2019
42
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2014-2017 (% change y-o-y)
43
Developed States
44
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014-2017
45
Emerging Markets
46
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014-2017
48
Table: BMI Versus Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2015 And 2016 (%)
49
Demographic Forecast
50
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kenya 1990-2025)
51
Table: Key Population Ratios (Kenya 1990-2025)
51
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Kenya 1990-2025)
52
Table: Population By Age Group (Kenya 1990-2025)
52
Table: Population By Age Group % (Kenya 1990-2025)
53
Methodology
55
Industry Forecast Methodology
55
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
56
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
58

The Kenya Tourism Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.

BMI's Kenya Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Kenyan tourism industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for Kenya to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Kenyan tourism market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Kenyan tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kenya.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Inbound Tourism: Total arrivals (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by region (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by country (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 source countries for arrivals.
  • Outbound Tourism: Total departures (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by regional destination (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by country (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 destination countries.
  • Travel & Receipts: Methods of travel for arrivals (air, ship, rail) (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for transport (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for travel items (USDbn and growth % y-o-y).
  • Hotels: Hotel industry value (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), number of hotels (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of total

BMI’s Tourism Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards.

Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups’ presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.

Competitive Landscape

This section provides insight into key domestic players in the hotel industry, discussing, for example, the number of hotels, brands, financial data, geographical spread, recent developments and strategies of individual companies.

Sources
The Tourism Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reprts instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.