Kenya Tourism Report

Published 15 June 2015

Quarterly report providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the tourism industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Tourism Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position

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Kenya Tourism Report
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BMI View: Kenya is traditionally a popular and well- established tourism destination. In past years , however, the tourism sector has suffered somewhat from the effects of the global economic crisis, misconceptions about the spread of Ebola and more recently a number of high-profile domestic terrorist attacks. These have served to keep international tourism arrivals low as foreign governments advised their citizens against travel in Kenya. However, the long-term future looks positive, with steady growth in inbound and outbound tourism expected as security is strengthened and a proactive tourism board targets new markets such as China.

Kenya has long been a popular tourist destination offering, in particular, some of the best wildlife watching and safari holidays in the world. The country also has fine beaches and busy, vibrant cities. More recently, however, the tourism sector has seen difficult times. Numbers of inbound tourists have been falling, and demand has waned in the wake of tightened financial restrictions from the economic crisis, when few could afford to visit the high-end game lodges. Kenya has since been rocked by a number of terrorist attacks, leading to many international tourists giving the coastal areas and beaches a wide berth. The Ebola outbreak in West Africa caused closures of the borders of some of Kenya's key markets. Tourists from some areas were even put off by the perception that Kenya itself had Ebola, which the government has been keen to counteract. The Kenyan Tourist Board is keen to boost its sector once more and has recently announced a USD50mn campaign to market the country to areas such as China, France and the US.

Short-term forecasts for the growth of the tourism sector are not particularly positive. Arrivals are set to drop by 5% in 2016 to 1.2mn. This is a result of a number of factors, including Ebola concerns, terrorism and financial constraints, and will lead to a 2.5% fall in international tourism receipts in US...

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BMI Industry View
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Inbound Tourism
Table: Inbound Tourism (Kenya 2012-2019)
Table: Inbound Tourism, Top 10 Markets By Arrivals, '000 (Kenya 2012-2019)
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism (Kenya 2012-2019)
Table: Outbound Tourism, Top 10 Countries By Departures, '000 (Kenya 2012-2019)
Table: Receipts for Transport and Travel (Kenya 2012-2019)
Table: Breakdown of Methods of Tourist Travel (Kenya 2012-2019)
Table: Hotel Accommodation (Kenya 2012-2019)
Table: Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value (Kenya 2012-2019)
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa - Tourism Industry Risk/Reward Index
Tourism Risk/Reward Index
Security Risk
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Domestic Hotel Groups
International Hotel Groups
Global Industry Overview
Global Assumptions
Global Macro Outlook
Table: Global Forecasts, 2014-2019
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2014-2017 (% change y-o-y)
Developed States
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014-2017
Emerging Markets
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014-2017
Table: BMI Versus Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2015 And 2016 (%)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kenya 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Kenya 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Kenya 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Kenya 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Kenya 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

The Kenya Tourism Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.

BMI's Kenya Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Kenyan tourism industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for Kenya to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Kenyan tourism market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Kenyan tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kenya.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).


BMI Industry View

This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Inbound Tourism: Total arrivals (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by region (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by country (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 source countries for arrivals.
  • Outbound Tourism: Total departures (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by regional destination (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by country (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 destination countries.
  • Travel & Receipts: Methods of travel for arrivals (air, ship, rail) (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for transport (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for travel items (USDbn and growth % y-o-y).
  • Hotels: Hotel industry value (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), number of hotels (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of total

BMI’s Tourism Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards.

Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups’ presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.

Competitive Landscape

This section provides insight into key domestic players in the hotel industry, discussing, for example, the number of hotels, brands, financial data, geographical spread, recent developments and strategies of individual companies.

The Tourism Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reprts instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.