Kenya Tourism Report

Published 15 June 2015

  • 58 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Kenya Tourism Report

BMI View: The Kenya tourism report looks at a range of key indicators in this well established, yet struggling, tourism destination. A decline in the security situation is impacting heavily on the tourism market, particularly along the coastline , and deterring potential investors and visitors alike. Although we expect to see a return to growth towards the end of the current forecast period, it will be some time before Kenya regains previous inbound tourism highs. In the meantime, the outbound tourism market offers more attractive growth prospects based on healthy domestic economic growth.

Kenya has long been established as a popular safari holiday destination and benefits from having diverse source markets including the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, the United Arab Emirates, India and South Africa. The country's tourism market has however been in decline for several years due to a rise in terrorist activity within the country, particularly the capital Nairobi and along the coast line. While inland safari destinations have suffered less of an impact, the previously popular beach holiday destinations are now on many 'unsafe' travel lists for governments worldwide. With arrivals on a downwards trend we expect to see an 8% decrease in arrivals in 2015, to around 1.2mn.

Short term prospects for Kenya's outbound travel market are more positive. We believe that a booming consumer story, a robust outlook for investment and lower oil prices will see real GDP growth in Kenya expand at around 6.5% annually over the next few years indicating increasing private financial consumption and healthy growth in demand for outbound travel. As such we expect to departures increase by 9.6% in 2015 followed by similarly high growth throughout the remainder of the forecast period meaning that by 2019 departures will outweigh arrivals.

Kenya's hotel market presents a mixed picture at present. While hotels along the coast line are suffering (23 closed in the first quarter of 2015),...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Tourism
9
Political
12
Economic
13
Operational Risk
14
Industry Forecast
16
Inbound Tourism
16
Table: Inbound Tourism (Kenya 2012-2019)
17
Table: Inbound Tourism, Top 10 Markets By Arrivals, '000 (Kenya 2012-2019)
18
Outbound Tourism
18
Table: Outbound Tourism (Kenya 2012-2019)
18
Table: Outbound Tourism, Top 10 Countries By Departures, '000 (Kenya 2012-2019)
20
Travel
20
Table: Receipts for Transport and Travel (Kenya 2012-2019)
21
Table: Breakdown of Methods of Tourist Travel (Kenya 2012-2019)
22
Hotels
22
Table: Hotel Accommodation (Kenya 2012-2019)
23
Table: Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value (Kenya 2012-2019)
24
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Industry Risk/Reward Index
25
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa - Tourism Industry Risk/Reward Index
25
Tourism Risk/Reward Index
26
Security Risk
27
Market Overview
29
Table: Global Hotel Groups' Presence In Kenya
30
Table: Kenya's Transport Infrastructure Projects - Airports
33
Competitive Landscape
34
TPS East Africa
34
Heritage Hotels
34
Sarova Hotels
35
Mada Hotels
35
Sun Africa Hotels
35
Sentrim Hotels and Lodges
35
Neptune Hotels
36
Global Industry Overview
37
Global Assumptions
42
Global Assumptions - January 2015
42
Table: Global Assumptions, 2014-2019
44
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2014-2017 (% change y-o-y)
45
Developed States
46
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014-2017
48
Emerging Markets
49
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014-2017
51
Table: BMI Versus Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2015 And 2016 (%)
52
Demographic Forecast
53
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kenya 1990-2025)
54
Table: Key Population Ratios (Kenya 1990-2025)
54
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Kenya 1990-2025)
55
Table: Population By Age Group (Kenya 1990-2025)
55
Table: Population By Age Group % (Kenya 1990-2025)
56
Methodology
58
Industry Forecast Methodology
58
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
59
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
61

The Kenya Tourism Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.

BMI's Kenya Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Kenyan tourism industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for Kenya to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Kenyan tourism market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Kenyan tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kenya.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Inbound Tourism: Total arrivals (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by region (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by country (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 source countries for arrivals.
  • Outbound Tourism: Total departures (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by regional destination (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by country (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 destination countries.
  • Travel & Receipts: Methods of travel for arrivals (air, ship, rail) (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for transport (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for travel items (USDbn and growth % y-o-y).
  • Hotels: Hotel industry value (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), number of hotels (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of total

BMI’s Tourism Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards.

Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups’ presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.

Competitive Landscape

This section provides insight into key domestic players in the hotel industry, discussing, for example, the number of hotels, brands, financial data, geographical spread, recent developments and strategies of individual companies.

Sources
The Tourism Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reprts instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc