BMI View: Kenya's tourism sector is currently going through a slump. Traditionally the country has been a popular tourist destination due to its abundance of safari options and its beautiful beaches. Over the last few years however, Kenya has been the victim of a number of high profile terrorist attacks that have left many potential tourists with insecurities about the safety of travel. In the short term this will cause inbound tourist numbers to continue to decrease. The government are, however, making great efforts to improve national security in a bid to change its international image and the perceptions of some of its key markets, especially Europe (recently, both the UK and US lifted travel advisories against areas of Kenya) . For these reasons we forecast that arrivals will pick up in the mid- to long-term and begin to steadily increase. International tourism receipts will follow the same pattern as arrivals and should emerge from a period of decline into gradual increase. The hotel and restaurant industry will see very little growth, both in the short- and long-term. Kenya is such a well- established tourist destination that there is currently a saturation of accommodation options. Only when tourist numbers return to the same level as before the increased terror activity will there be demand for further developments in hotels and restaurants.
|Total arrivals, '000||1,710.83||1,519.60||1,337.25||1,230.27||1,168.76||1,209.66||1,255.02||1,361.00|
|Total arrivals, '000, % y-o-y||-6.1||-11.2||-12.0||-8.0||-5.0||3.5||3.8||8.4|
|International tourism receipts, KESbn||258.72||266.31||233.23||229.27||247.72||276.44||304.75||357.63|
|International tourism receipts, KESbn, % y-o-y||9.3||2.9||-12.4||-1.7||8.0||11.6||10.2||17.4|
|International tourism receipts, USDbn||3.06||3.09||2.65||2.32||2.26||2.47||2.71||3.16|
|International tourism receipts, USDbn, % y-o-y||14.9||1.0||-14.2||-12.5||-2.5||9.1||9.8||16.8|
|Hotel and restaurant industry value, KESbn||56.34||49.56||49.44||50.93||52.60||54.91||58.20||61.19|
|Hotel and restaurant industry value, KESbn, % y-o-y||11.5||-12.0||-0.3||3.0||3.3||4.4||6.0||5.1|
|Hotel and restaurant industry value, USDbn||0.7||0.6||0.6||0.5||0.5||0.5||0.5||0.5|
|Hotel and restaurant industry value, USDbn, % y-o-y||17.2||-13.7||-2.3||-8.3||-6.8||2.1||5.5||4.7|
Key Updates A nd Forecasts
Inbound tourism is forecast to see growth from 2017. In the long term this growth will increase at a faster pace than previously expected, to hit 1.4mn by 2019.
By 2019, the higher number of inbound tourists will also push the international tourism receipts up, to USD3.16bn, a y-o-y rise of 16.83% from 2018 - 1.73% higher than the same forecast last quarter.
The hotel and restaurant industry value is expected to stay at USD0.5bn for the entire forecast period from 2015, a drop of USD0.1bn from the previous quarters forecast.
The Kenyan Tourist Board (KTB) has identified Nigeria as a market that has shown potential for tourism growth and, in December 2015, has been showcasing the country and meeting with potential trade partners in Lagos.
In December 2015 Kenya was voted the world's leading safari destination at the World Travel Awards (WTA), recognition that could boost the tourism sector.
The Kenya Tourism Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.
BMI's Kenya Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Kenyan tourism industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for Kenya to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Kenyan tourism market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Kenyan tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kenya.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Inbound Tourism: Total arrivals (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by region (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by country (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 source countries for arrivals.
- Outbound Tourism: Total departures (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by regional destination (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by country (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 destination countries.
- Travel & Receipts: Methods of travel for arrivals (air, ship, rail) (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for transport (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for travel items (USDbn and growth % y-o-y).
- Hotels: Hotel industry value (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), number of hotels (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of total
BMI’s Tourism Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards.
Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups’ presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.
This section provides insight into key domestic players in the hotel industry, discussing, for example, the number of hotels, brands, financial data, geographical spread, recent developments and strategies of individual companies.
The Tourism Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reprts instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.