Kenya Tourism Report

Published 05 February 2015

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$1,295.00
Kenya Tourism Report

BMI View: Kenya's tourism market is diverse, with natural attractions and an attractive coastline with relatively well developed resorts. With the government also actively supporting the tourism industry, it has the potential to attract a large number of inbound arrivals. Unfortunately, the security situation in the country and the perceived threat of Ebola have contributed to a disappointing forecast over the next few years, with the value of the hotel and restaurant industry expected to fall by 10% between 2015 and 2019 . As a result , the country is a higher risk proposition for tourism investment than a number of other countries in the region.

In order to boost the tourism industry, Kenya's government is actively promoting business tourism by hosting conferences (in partnership with the private sector). It is also building a large conference centre in Bomas, which will be the largest in Africa upon completion. In addition, over 21,000 local and international delegates are expected to attend conferences in Kenya over 2015, with the 10th annual World Trade Organization Ministerial Conference due to be held in December, alongside other major events including the World Conference on Public Relations Forum. In total, the government expects to generate KES8bn from business travel throughout the year and hopes to increase this further in the future.

However, the Kenyan government faces a difficult task to convince tourists to visit in such uncertain times. Undoubtedly it has to tackle the security situation in the country, as remaining on the travel advisory lists of many western governments has a negative effect, which is accentuated by high profile terrorist incidents, such as the September 2013 attack in the Westgate Shopping Centre in Nairobi. With 2014 being the deadliest year for terrorism attacks in Kenya since 2011, the government will have to prove it has the ability to control and improve the situation, and protect the country from the al-Shabaab...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Tourism
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Industry Forecast
13
Inbound Tourism
14
Table: Inbound Tourism (Kenya 2011-2018)
15
Table: Inbound Tourism, Top 10 Markets By Arrivals, '000 (Kenya 2011-2018)
16
Outbound Tourism
17
Table: Outbound Tourism (Kenya 2011-2018)
17
Table: Outbound Tourism, Top 10 Countries By Departures, '000 (Kenya 2011-2018)
18
Travel
19
Table: Receipts for Transport and Travel (Kenya 2011-2018)
19
Table: Breakdown of Methods of Tourist Travel (Kenya 2011-2018)
21
Hotels
21
Table: Hotel Accommodation (Kenya 2011-2018)
22
Table: Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value (Kenya 2011-2018)
22
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa - Tourism Industry Risk/Reward Index
24
Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Security Risk
26
Market Overview
28
Table: Global Hotel Groups' Presence In Kenya
29
Table: Kenya's Transport Infrastructure Projects - Airports
32
Competitive Landscape
33
TPS East Africa
33
Heritage Hotels
33
Sarova Hotels
34
Mada Hotels
34
InterContinental Hotels Group
35
Best Western
35
Hilton Worldwide
35
Global Industry Overview
36
Global Assumptions
41
Table: Global Assumptions, 2013-2018
41
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2013-2016 (% change y-o-y)
42
Developed States
43
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013-2016
44
Emerging Markets
45
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013-2016
46
Table: BMI Versus Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014 And 2015 (%)
47
Demographic Forecast
48
Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
49
Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
50
Table: Kenya's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
51
Table: Kenya's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
51
Methodology
52
Industry Forecast Methodology
52
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
53
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
55

The Kenya Tourism Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.

BMI's Kenya Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Kenyan tourism industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for Kenya to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Kenyan tourism market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Kenyan tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kenya.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Inbound Tourism: Total arrivals (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by region (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by country (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 source countries for arrivals.
  • Outbound Tourism: Total departures (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by regional destination (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by country (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 destination countries.
  • Travel & Receipts: Methods of travel for arrivals (air, ship, rail) (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for transport (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for travel items (USDbn and growth % y-o-y).
  • Hotels: Hotel industry value (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), number of hotels (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of total

BMI’s Tourism Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards.

Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups’ presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.

Competitive Landscape

This section provides insight into key domestic players in the hotel industry, discussing, for example, the number of hotels, brands, financial data, geographical spread, recent developments and strategies of individual companies.

Sources
The Tourism Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reprts instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc