Kuwait Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
×

Sign up to download the Kuwait Country Risk Report

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

You will shortly receive your free executive summary by email.

Kuwait Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • We expect the Kuwaiti economy to see modest growth over 2016 and 2017, forecasting real GDP growth of 1.5% and 2.0%, respectively, from 1.4% in 2015. After a long period of stagnation, the Kuwaiti investment outlook appears to be improving, while an uptick in oil output will support growth over the coming quarters. However, we again highlight Kuwait's ever-volatile political situation as the key downside risk to economic activity.

  • Kuwait has seen a flurry of populist legislation recently, including several measures specifically targeting expatriate workers. This runs the risk of increasing uncertainty within the private sector, as well as cementing perceptions of the country as a hub of policy instability.

  • We expect tensions to remain between the government and the legislative branch, even with the election of a renewed 'loyalist' parliament. In addition, the passing of a new election law in June will increase the opposition's grievances.

  • We forecast average consumer price inflation for Kuwait of 3.3% in 2016 - similar to 2015 - before edging up moderately to 3.8% in 2017. While we expect a slight fall in Kuwaiti food inflation over the near term on the back of lower global prices, a tight supply picture in the real estate market will fuel housing inflation over the coming quarters, in a trend seen across the GCC.

Key Risks

  • As ever, given the economy's heavy dependence on oil, any further downturn in global energy prices would prove disastrous. That said, Kuwait has the financial arsenal to cope with any short-term volatility in oil prices, and therefore the underlying risks in this regard are minimal.

  • Our forecasts assume that the implementation of the government's development plans will be slow owing to the impact of bureaucratic gridlock. However, the state certainly has the firepower to move forward with its capital spending plans if political compromises can be reached. Furthermore, a renewed loyalist parliament, following legislative elections in July 2013, offers the prospect of an acceleration of long-delayed economic reforms and infrastructure projects. Any improvement on this front would pose upside risks to our growth forecasts, as well as downside risks to our budget surplus projections.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Kuwait 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f
National Sources/BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 163.5 121.6 113.1 121.9
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y -1.2 1.2 1.5 2.0
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 3.0 3.0 3.5 4.0
Exchange rate KWD/USD, eop 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.31
Budget balance, % of GDP 27.7 9.6 -9.9 -5.9
Current account balance, % of GDP 32.5 9.0 -0.8 3.2
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
No Escaping A Slowdown
8
TABLE: KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: SLOWER GROWTH ON THE HORIZON
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
11
Government To Start Curtailing Spending
11
Structural Fiscal Position
11
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY
12
Monetary Policy
12
Rate Rises To Limit Inflation
12
Monetary Policy Framework
13
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY
13
External Trade And Investment Outlook
13
First Current Account Deficit In Decades, No Sign Of Further External Imbalances
13
Outlook On External Position
14
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF IMPORTS IN 2014
14
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF EXPORTS IN 2014
15
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
17
The Kuwaiti Economy To 2025
17
Slower Growth On The Horizon
17
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
17
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
19
SWOT Analysis
19
BMI Political Risk Index
19
Domestic Politics
20
Looming Succession Risks
20
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
20
Long-Term Political Outlook
22
Democracy: No Turning Back
22
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
25
SWOT Analysis
25
Operational Risk Index
25
Operational Risk
26
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
26
Economic Openness
27
TABLE: TOP 5 TRADE PARTNERS - PRODUCT IMPORTS (2010-2014), USDMN
27
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
30
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
31
Availability Of Labour
34
TABLE: MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA - LABOUR AVAILABILITY RISK
34
TABLE: TOP 10 SOURCE COUNTRIES FOR KUWAIT-S MIGRANT LABOUR
35
TABLE: WORKFORCE - DIVISIONS OF OCCUPATION
35
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
39
Global Macro Outlook
39
Emerging Markets Nearing Inflexion Point
39
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
39
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
40
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
40
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
41
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
43

Assess your risk exposure in Kuwait with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Kuwait with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:

  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
  • The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
  • The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription
  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report