BMI View: Desp ite continued pressure to raise revenues i n the face of a protracted oil crisis , increased strategic cooperation with neighbouring Gulf stat es and ongoing government investmen t will provide Kuwait's pharmaceutical sector with continued growth momentum.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: From KWD300mn (USD997mn) in 2015 to KWD316mn (USD1.03bn) in 2016; +5.2% in local currency terms and +3.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q2 1 6 .
Healthcare: From KWD1.67bn (USD5.54bn) in 2015 to KWD1.79bn (USD5.83bn) in 2016; +7.2% in local currency terms and +5.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with Q 2 1 6 .
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||1.006||0.997||1.029||1.065||1.113||1.168||1.228|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.62||0.81||0.81||0.81||0.80||0.82||0.84|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||18.5||18.0||17.7||17.4||17.2||17.0||16.9|
|Health spending, USDbn||5.449||5.540||5.827||6.129||6.481||6.861||7.250|
In our Q216 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Kuwait scores 54.5 out of 100. Increasing from a Q116 score of 52.9, the country has now surpassed Lebanon and Qatar and is the sixth most attractive market in the region. The burden of diabetes will continue to expand in the region as the population ages and adopts increasingly sedentary lifestyles. Increasing insurance coverage and rising income levels will lead to greater spending on diabetes, and commercial opportunities will be sought by multinational pharmaceutical companies, health insurers and providers.
In November 2015, The Kuwaiti Economics Committee in the Supreme Council for Planning and Development proposed a two-layered alternative health plan for expatriates. The proposal would see expats working in the public sector receive treatment in expat-only hospitals after purchasing a health insurance policy, with private sector workers treated in private medical facilities.
In February 2016, the Kuwaiti government entered into an agreement with Armenia on cooperation in the areas of health and medicine. This will see the increased sharing and analysis of health sector experiences as well as establishing close contacts between countries' respective health institutions.
In a controversial move, the Ministry of Health announced plans to impose a health insurance fee on visitors during a November 16th health committee meeting which would see fees either added to the price of visitor's air tickets, or paid directly at the border.
BMI Economic View
Lower oil prices will have a detrimental effect on Kuwait's economy; weighing slightly on the government's expenditure plans but more notably on business confidence and consumer spending. We forecast real GDP growth of 1.2% in 2016 and 1.9% in 2017, from an estimated 1.5% in 2015.
BMI Political View
Kuwait's decision to break diplomatic ties with Iran represents only a slight deterioration in the country's political risk profile and we see little to no economic impact. Generally, Kuwait faces few external risks, especially given improving relations with Iraq.
The Kuwait Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Kuwait Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Kuwait pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Kuwait, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Kuwaiti pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Kuwaiti pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kuwait.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.