BMI View: The gradual economic recovery will support the government's plans within the healthcare sector; however, political instability poses the greatest risk to our outlook. Kuwait's political backdrop is complicated by labour and population imbalances, as well as a parliament which has consistently blocked the government's reform efforts. While these healthcare reforms are still likely to be implemented, changes to the election law reform mean they are vulnerable to lengthy delays as political tensions continue to elevate.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: From KWD300mn (USD1.0bn) in 2015 to KWD312mn (USD1.02bn) in 2016; +4.1% in local currency terms and +2.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with Q 4 1 6 .
Healthcare: From KWD1.61bn (USD5.33bn) in 2015 to KWD1.74bn (USD5.66bn) in 2016; +8.1% in local currency terms and +6.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with Q4 1 6 .
|Source: National Sources/BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||1.006||0.997||1.018||1.047||1.089||1.139||1.193|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.62||0.91||0.96||0.88||0.86||0.86||0.83|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||19.4||18.7||18.0||17.5||17.1||16.8||16.6|
|Health spending, USDbn||5.197||5.333||5.656||5.991||6.371||6.776||7.186|
In our Q117 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Kuwait scores 53.3 out of 100. Decreasing from a Q416 score of 54.5, the country now ranks behind the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Israel, as the fourth most attractive market in the region. The burden of diabetes will continue to expand in the region as the population ages and adopts increasingly sedentary lifestyles. Increasing insurance coverage and rising income levels will lead to greater spending on diabetes, and commercial opportunities will be sought by multinational pharmaceutical companies, health insurers and providers.
In September 2016, health minister Al Obaidi launched healthcare for retirees with the distribution 117,000 cards for eligible citizens across 45 government offices at a total cost of KWD82mn. The service is said to be part of an ongoing effort to increase cooperation between the government and the National Assembly.
In September 2016, a Kuwait medical delegation visited Qatar's Haj mission, Makkah, to discuss the establishment a Gulf medical entity under the jurisdiction of Gulf Haj missions. Proposals will be presented to officials at the meeting of GCC Health Ministers as part of efforts to offer better medical services for Gulf pilgrims.
BMI Economic View
We expect the Central Bank of Kuwait (CBK) to follow the US Federal Reserve (Fed) when it hikes its policy rate by 25 basis points in 2017. This will be a repeat of 2015, when the CBK raised its benchmark rate less than 24 hours after the US institution had done so. As a result, we forecast Kuwait's policy rate to stand at 2.50% by the end of 2017, compared to 2.25% at end-2016.
BMI Political View
Kuwait's National Assembly will continue to block fiscal consolidation reforms that impact Kuwaiti citizens, and divert austerity towards expatriates. As a result, the country will remain a reform laggard in the GCC. This will pose little risk to Kuwait's stability, given the colossal financial buffers at its disposal.
The Kuwait Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Kuwait Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Kuwait pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Kuwait, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Kuwaiti pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Kuwaiti pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kuwait.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.