BMI View: Kuwait's pharmaceutical sector will remain insulated from the impact of lower oil prices given the country's strong fiscal buffers. Risks to our outlook include increasing generic penetration as health insurance coverage increases.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: From KWD287mn (USD1.01bn) in 2014 to KWD300mn (USD1.01bn) in 2015; +4.7% in local currency terms and +0.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q415.
Healthcare: From KWD1.53bn (USD5.38bn) in 2014 to KWD1.64bn (USD5.55bn) in 2015; +7.3% in local currency terms and +3.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with Q 4 15.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.973||1.006||1.012||1.035||1.071||1.128||1.187|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.55||0.60||0.80||0.80||0.79||0.79||0.81|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||19.2||18.7||18.3||18.1||18.0||18.3||18.5|
|Health spending, USDbn||5.072||5.378||5.545||5.719||5.939||6.161||6.403|
In our Q116 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Kuwait scores 52.9 out of 100. Falling from a Q415 score of 53.7, the country has maintained its position as the sixth most attractive market in the region. The burden of diabetes will continue to expand in the region as the population ages and adopts increasingly sedentary lifestyles. Increasing insurance coverage and rising income levels will lead to greater spending on diabetes, and commercial opportunities will be sought by multinational pharmaceutical companies, health insurers and providers.
The Ministry of Health begun to cut the prices of medicines in private pharmacies in October 2015. The reduction includes all medicines for chronic diseases as well as various antibiotics and the move comes as part of the wider ongoing Gulf Cooperation Council drug price unification process.
In October 2015, the Kuwait Society for Human Rights accused authorities in the country of discrimination against foreigners by excluding them from certain healthcare services at public hospitals. The society noted that expats in the country have been barred from kidney dialysis treatment and certain drugs at public hospitals.
In August 2015, the Ministry of Health in collaboration with the Gulf Excellence Award (GEA), launched a series of health campaigns to increase diabetes prevention awareness. Assistant undersecretary for Technical Affairs in the ministry, Qais Al-Duwairi highlighted that for 2015, the prevention of diabetes was chosen as the primary health objective, with the prevention of breast cancer to follow in 2016.
BMI Economic View
Lower oil prices will have marginal detrimental effect on Kuwait's economy; however, the country's persistent political deadlock will have a greater impact, and ensure only modest rates of growth over the coming years. We retain our forecast for real GDP growth of 2.5% in 2015 and 1.9% in 2016, from an estimated 2.7% in 2014.
BMI Political View
Kuwait's external security has improved following the agreement between Western powers and Iran over the latter's nuclear programme. Given improving relations with Iraq we have raised our short-term political risk score for the country.
The Kuwait Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Kuwait Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Kuwait pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Kuwait, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Kuwaiti pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Kuwaiti pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kuwait.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.