BMI View: With the recent oil strike representing a harbinger of significant political and economic turbulence ahead, the stability of its health and pharmaceutical sectors will depen d on Kuwait's integration with neighbouring Gulf states and international partners.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: From KWD300mn (USD997mn) in 2015 to KWD453mn (USD1.48bn) in 2016; +51.1% in local currency terms and +48.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upward from Q2 1 6 .
Healthcare: From KWD1.67bn (USD5.54bn) in 2015 to KWD1.79bn (USD5.83bn) in 2016; +7.2% in local currency terms and +5.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with Q 2 1 6 .
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||1.010||1.000||1.020||1.050||1.100||1.150||1.210|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.62||0.82||0.90||0.86||0.85||0.87||0.88|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||19.4||18.4||17.5||16.8||16.3||16.0||15.7|
|Health spending, USDbn||5.200||5.420||5.840||6.260||6.740||7.240||7.750|
In our Q316 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Kuwait scores 59.3 out of 100. Increasing from a Q216 score of 54.5, the country has now surpassed Israel, Lebanon and Qatar and is the third most attractive market in the region. The burden of diabetes will continue to expand in the region as the population ages and adopts increasingly sedentary lifestyles. Increasing insurance coverage and rising income levels will lead to greater spending on diabetes, and commercial opportunities will be sought by multinational pharmaceutical companies, health insurers and providers.
In April 2016, the Ministry of Health (MoH) agreed to recruit nurses for Kuwaiti hospitals from India through the e-migrate system. The initiative, which aims to put an end to the exploitation of Indian nurses, will see the MoH recruit 1,000 nurses from India in 2016.
In April 2016, the MoH announced it had approved Sanofi's Toujeo ( insulin glargine U300), a next generation basal insulin to improve the control of blood sugar in adults living with type 1 and type 2 diabetes.
BMI Economic View
Kuwait's current account balance will fall into deficit in 2016, for the first time in over two decades, as further weakness in global oil prices over H116 slash the country's exports, while import growth remains unaffected, on the back of demand stemming from the government's five year Development Plan. The country's external imbalances will not last, given our view for global oil prices to pick up from H216. We forecast real GDP growth of 1.2% in 2016 and 1.9% in 2017, from an estimated 1.5% in 2015.
BMI Political View
Kuwait will enter a period of greater instability following the current emir's demise, as infighting within the royal family over the nomination of a new crown prince spills over into other arenas of domestic politics. Although the most likely outcome is a return to a more traditional succession paradigm, the nomination of a member from the al-Jaber branch could trigger a profound crisis.
The Kuwait Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Kuwait Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Kuwait pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Kuwait, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Kuwaiti pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Kuwaiti pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kuwait.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.