BMI View: Kuwait's economy witnessed a slowdown with the damage to the world oil industry in the last year, however prospects for the retail sector remain strong. Despite being a relatively small country, both population and area wise, there are high numbers of affluent households and individuals, driving growth in the retail sector. The high levels of urbanisation and preference for modern retail formats and luxurious brands means Kuwait represent great opportunities to retailers who can build up strong brand loyalty and take advantage of the wealthy population.
The growth in Kuwaiti economy will not be as strong as it has been in the last five years, due to the downturn in the oil industry due to falling prices of oil, while Kuwait is highly dependent on the oil industry for its income and exports. As a result the growth in the economy will average less than 3% y-o-y during our forecast period. However this will not have a huge negative effect on the retail sector, as to make up for the lost revenue in the oil industry there is more emphasis on private domestic consumption as a larger driver of the economy that previously.
Despite the relatively negative outlook of the economy as a whole for the near future, the overall health of the Kuwaiti economy is strong and its per capita income is one of the highest in the world, reflecting a high level of disposable income and household spending. Total household spending is expected to reach USD34bn in 2019 from USD28bn in 2015, while also representing a greater percentage of GDP as household spending grows faster than GDP. The key characteristic for retailers is the large amount of households in the highest income bracket of USD50,000+ as they represent those who have the most disposable income and most partial to spending on aspirational, non-essential goods. Most of the spending will go on food and drink, however its relative importance is expected to shrink slightly in favour of personal, insurance and other...
The Kuwait Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.
BMI's Kuwait Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.
- Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Kuwait to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Kuwaiti retail market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Kuwait through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:
- Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
- Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
- Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
- Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).
BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.
This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.
The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.