Latvia Autos Report

Published 17 November 2014

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Latvia Autos Report

2014 has proved a positive year for new vehicle sales within Latvia. Over the first nine months of the year, passenger car (PC) sales were up by 19% year-on-year (y-o-y), at 9,239 units, according to figures from the European Auto Manufacturers Association (ACEA).

On the commercial vehicle side, 8M14 figures from ACEA show a total of 1,658 light commercial vehicles (LCVs) sold in country, with a further 754 medium and heavy commercial vehicles sold, plus a further 137 buses, for a total of 2,549 units sold year-to-date.

Adding the 2,549 CV units to the 8,445 PCs sold over 8M14 makes for a total new vehicle market of 10,994 units. On current sales trends, this leaves the Latvian new vehicle sales market on target to hit BMI's forecast of 16,384 units for the full year.

Looking forward, BMI's Country Risk team believes that the ongoing sanctions being levied against Russia by Western powers (as a result of Russia's activities in neighbouring Ukraine) could well impact on the Latvian economy as we enter 2015. Latvia is suffer ing in particular from the disruptions to trade imposed by first the West and now, in retaliation, by Russia. Russia remains a major export market for Latvia, especially in industries such as fish processing and dairy production. Even without these sanctions, we believe that decelerating Russian growth will translate into weaker external demand for Latvian exports. This could impact on CV sales within Latvia in particular.

The outlook for private consumption, a key indicator of the potential demand for new passenger vehicles within Latvia, is somewhat better. Moreover, against a backdrop of subdued inflation, the European Central Bank (ECB) looks set to keep interest rates at very low levels (the current lending rate was cut to just 0.05% in September 2014 and the deposit rate was cut to -0.2%), which should in turn lead to lower car financing rates and act as a support to Latvian new vehicle demand over the near term. This is why we...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2012-2018)
13
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2012-2018)
13
Trade
15
Passenger Cars
15
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2012-2018)
15
Table: Latvia - Top 10 Best-Selling Passenger Car Brands, 5M14
16
Used Cars
17
Commercial Vehicles
18
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2012-2018)
18
Table: Latvia, CV Sales 8M14
19
Table: Latvia, Top-Selling HCV Brands, 2013
20
Suppliers
20
Alternative Fuels
20
Macroeconomic Forecasts
24
Economic Analysis
24
Macro Outlook
24
Real GDP By Expenditure Breakdown
25
Risks To Outlook
29
Table: Economic Activity (Latvia 2009-2018)
29
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
30
Europe - Risk/Reward Index
30
Table: Europe Autos Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Company Profile
35
Company Monitor
35
Inchcape
39
Moller Auto Baltic
42
Regional Overview
45
Global Industry Overview
48
Table: The Internet Of Cars
48
Demographic Forecast
50
Latvia
50
Table: Latvia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
51
Table: Latvia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
52
Table: Latvia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
53
Table: Latvia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
53
Methodology
54
Industry Forecasts
54
Sector-Specific Methodology
55
Sources
55
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
56
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
57

The Latvia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Latvia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Latvia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Latvia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Latvian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Latvian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Latvia.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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