Latvia Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Latvia Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Latvia's economic recovery will continue in 2016, although we emphasize that labour market improvements are partly the result of high levels of emigration.

  • We see small but growing scope for the government to ease up on its long-held policy of fiscal austerity going forward.

  • The Russian embargo on EU agricultural goods has weakened the growth outlook and Latvia will be among the worst EU states affected.

  • Growth will remain subdued due to the need for further deleveraging.

Major Forecast Changes

  • We have downgraded our medium-term growth outlook, and forecast average real GDP growth of just 3.0% between 2017 and 2020, from a previous forecast of 3.4%.

Key Risks

  • The prevailing risk to our forecasts for Latvia remains the persistent eurozone sovereign debt crisis. A further deepening of the crisis would pose downside risks to most of our forecasts.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Latvia 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 2.3 2.8 3.0 3.3
Nominal GDP, EURbn 23.4 24.1 25.0 26.2
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 0.3 -0.1 0.8 2.9
Exchange rate EUR/USD, eop 0.83 0.95 0.91 0.87
Budget balance, % of GDP -1.6 -1.2 -1.2 -0.9
Current account balance, % of GDP -1.6 -1.4 -1.4 -1.3
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Domestic Politics
8
External Threats Strongest Risk
8
Table: Political Overview
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
10
Slower Growth And Ethnic Tensions Key Themes To 2024
10
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Index
13
Economic Activity
14
Mixed Signals From Leading Indicators
14
TABLE: GDP By Expenditure
14
Balance Of Payments
16
More External Deleveraging Needed
16
TABLE: Current Account
16
Fiscal Policy
18
Steady Decline In Public Debt Ahead
18
TABLE: Currency Composition Of Government Debt
18
TABLE: Fiscal Policy
19
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Latvian Economy To 2024
21
Looking For A 'New Normal'
21
TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
21
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
23
SWOT Analysis
23
Operational Risk Index
23
Operational Risk
24
TABLE: Developed States - Labour Market Risk
24
TABLE: Developed States - Logistics Risk
27
TABLE: Developed States - Crime And Security Risk
30
TABLE: Developed States - Trade And Investment Risk
32
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
37
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
37
TABLE: Pharmaceutical Sales
38
TABLE: Healthcare Expenditure
38
Other Key Sectors
41
TABLE: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators
41
TABLE: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators
41
TABLE: Food & Drink Sector Key Indicators
41
TABLE: Autos Sector Key Indicators
42
TABLE: Freight Key Indicators
42
Chapter 6: BMI Global Macro Outlook
43
Global Outlook
43
Assessing The Aftermath Of Three Key Events
43
Table: Global Assumptions
43
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
44
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
44
bmi Global Macro outlook
45
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %
45

Assess your risk exposure in Latvia with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Latvia with confidence.

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