Latvia Freight Transport Report

Published 05 January 2015

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Latvia Freight Transport Report

Latvia's freight industry is inconveniently poised to feel the effects of the deterioration in trade relations between the EU and the Russian Federation. While on aggregate sanctions put in place by the West have not significantly affected the EU's growth outlook, they have hit Latvia hard. Russia is one of Latvia's largest trading partners, accounting for 10% of total exports, and both the visible goods and services trade is suffering as a direct result.

Nonetheless, tensions appear to have reached a plateau for the time being, with the EU opting not to enact any further sanctions on Russia in November, while Russia and Ukraine reached a deal which should lead to the resumption of gas supplies to Ukraine. This suggests that the risk of worst-case scenario for Latvia's banking sector, involving an intensification of capital and financial market sanctions on Russian assets, has declined slightly.

In 2015, growth across all of the freight modes in Latvia is set to be relatively mooted, with the exception of the air freight sector, which is set for year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of a healthy 6.90%. While the road freight sector is pencilled in for steady y-o-y gains of 3.60%, rail freight will fare worse with annual growth of just under 1%.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2015 port of Riga tonnage throughput is forecast to grow 1.54%.

  • 2015 Port of Ventspils tonnage throughput is forecast to rise 1.56%.

  • 2015 air freight tonnage throughput is forecast to increase 6.90%.

  • 2015 rail freight tonnage throughput is forecast to rise 0.97%.

  • 2015 road freight tonnage throughput is forecast to grow 3.60%.

  • 2015 total trade real growth is forecast to rise 1.50%.

Key Industry Trends

Rail Freight Exposed To Sanctions - Latvia's rail freight sector will continue to be negatively impacted by the trade sanctions placed on Russia by the West due to Latvia's role as a conduit for Russia's imports and exports. Trade sanctions and counter-sanctions between Russia and Western states will...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Industry Forecast
13
Table: Table 1: Air Freight, 2012-19
13
Table: Table 2: Maritime Freight, 2012-19
14
Table: Table 3: Rail Freight, 2012-19
15
Table: Table 4: Road Freight, 2012-19
15
Table: Table 5: Trade Overview, 2012-19
16
Table: Table 6: Key Trade Indicators, 2012-19
16
Table: Table 7: TOP IMPORT DESTINATIONS, 2005-2012, USDmn
17
Table: Table 8: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS, 2005-2012, USDmn
18
Market Overview
19
Industry Trends And Developments
23
Company Profile
30
LDz Cargo
30
Latvian Shipping Company - Q1 2015
33
Political Outlook
37
Domestic Politics
37
Table: Latvia Political Overview
38
Long-Term Political Outlook
39
Macroeconomic Forecasts
44
Economic Analysis
44
Macro Outlook
44
Real GDP By Expenditure Breakdown
46
Risks To Outlook
48
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Latvia 2011-2018)
49
Demographic Forecast
50
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Latvia 1990-2025)
51
Table: Key Population Ratios (Latvia 1990-2025)
51
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Latvia 1990-2025)
52
Table: Population By Age Group (Latvia 1990-2025)
52
Table: Population By Age Group % (Latvia 1990-2025)
53
Methodology
55
Industry Forecast Methodology
55
Sector-Specific Methodology
56
Sources
57

The Latvia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

BMI Research's Latvia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Latvian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Latvia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Latvian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Latvia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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