Latvia Freight Transport Report

Published 13 January 2016

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Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the freight transport industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, Freight Transport Risk Reward Index, Macroeconomic Forecast, Company Profiles and Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position

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Latvia Freight Transport Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Latvia's freight industry will grow at a moderate pace over 2016, prompted by stable economic growth and an uptick in household consumption. However, it is poised to feel the negative effects of the deterioration in trade relations between the EU and the Russian Federation. While on aggregate sanctions put in place by the West have not significantly affected the EU's growth outlook, they have hit Latvia hard. Russia is one of Latvia's largest trading partners, accounting for 10% of total exports, and the country also acts as a conduit for trade between the EU and Russia.

The economic outlook for Latvia remains stable over the short term, although weaker demand from Russia is dragging on the industrial sector. We forecast real GDP growth will increase to 3.0% in 2016 from 2.8% in 2015. Household confidence has continued to improve, and will likely keep rising over the coming quarters, mirroring positive developments in the labour market and steadily growing wages. Registered cars also continued to rise, tallying with steady retail sales growth. Taken together, the outlook for households remains one of gradual but robust improvement as the sector draws to the end of its deleveraging cycle and disposable incomes rise. Low inflation (headline CPI contracted by 0.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in September 2015) is also helping to bolster household purchasing power, although consumer price growth will begin to pick up at the start of 2016 as base effects from low oil decline.

Rising consumer demand will keep the road freight sector growing over the short term. Road freight growth has picked up from a contraction of 2.4% 2012 to 15.2% in 2013 and a stabilisation in growth of 3.1% and 3.6% in 2014 and 2015 respectively. We anticipate further growth of 3.8% in 2016. Road freight will continue to dominate the freight mix, accounting for 52.9% of total freight carried

Latvia's rail freight sector will continue to be negatively impacted by trade sanctions between...

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BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Industry Forecast
13
Table: Table 1: Air Freight, 2012-19
13
Table: Table 2: Maritime Freight, 2012-19
14
Table: Table 3: Rail Freight, 2012-19
15
Table: Table 4: Road Freight, 2012-19
15
Table: Table 5: Trade Overview, 2012-19
16
Table: Table 6: Key Trade Indicators, 2012-19
16
Table: Table 7: TOP IMPORT DESTINATIONS, 2005-2012, USDmn
17
Table: Table 8: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS, 2005-2012, USDmn
18
Market Overview
19
Industry Trends And Developments
23
Company Profile
30
LDz Cargo
30
Latvian Shipping Company - Q1 2015
33
Political Outlook
37
Domestic Politics
37
Table: Latvia Political Overview
38
Long-Term Political Outlook
39
Macroeconomic Forecasts
44
Economic Analysis
44
Macro Outlook
44
Real GDP By Expenditure Breakdown
46
Risks To Outlook
48
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Latvia 2011-2018)
49
Demographic Forecast
50
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Latvia 1990-2025)
51
Table: Key Population Ratios (Latvia 1990-2025)
51
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Latvia 1990-2025)
52
Table: Population By Age Group (Latvia 1990-2025)
52
Table: Population By Age Group % (Latvia 1990-2025)
53
Methodology
55
Industry Forecast Methodology
55
Sector-Specific Methodology
56
Sources
57

The Latvia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

BMI Research's Latvia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Latvian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Latvia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Latvian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Latvia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.