BMI View: Latvia's pharmaceutical market offers stable growth, at least in local currency terms, although the country will continue to present a modest opportunity to larger multinational companies on account of its relatively small market size. Meanwhile, tensions between Ukraine and Russia are creating challenges for local manufacturers that have focused on exports to Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region .
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR313mn (USD419mn) in 2014 to EUR325mn (USD358mn) in 2015; +4.0% in local currency terms and -14.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards slightly from previous quarter due to slightly upgraded on stability of health insurers revenues.
Healthcare: EUR970mn (USD1.30bn) in 2014 to EUR1.01bn (USD1.11bn) in 2015; +4.0% in local currency terms and -14.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly unchanged on previous quarter.
Risk/Reward Index: Latvia is ranked 14th out of the 20 countries surveyed in the Central and Eastern Europe region in Q3 2015. Its position in the rankings has improved from 16th in our assessment of the previous quarter. Latvia's overall score also improved to 47.6 for Q3 2015 from 48.8 in the previous quarter. Latvia's score remains below the regional average of 49.5, indicating the country's challenging business environment, particularly in terms of potential industry rewards. Consequently, direct multinational operations are limited and domestic companies, such as Grindeks, have looked abroad for growth opportunities.
Key Trends And Developments
Latvia's pharmaceutical sales declined 9% year-on-year to EUR135mn (USD142.3mn) in 2014, according to LETA, citing the State Agency of Medicines' data. Exports accounted for 90% of the total market, while the remaining 10% of products were sold on the domestic market. The amount of drugs sold in the local market fell 8% in 2014 compared with 2013, while exports declined 3%.
Latvian drugmaker Grindeks...
The Latvia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Latvia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Latvia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Latvia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Latvian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Latvian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Latvia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.