Latvia Telecommunications Report

Published 05 December 2014

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Latvia Telecommunications Report

BMI View : Despite high mobile and broadband penetration, Latvia does not score highly relative to its neighbours on BMI 's proprietary Risk/Rewards Index for the telecommunications sector. The key reasons why it remains a lacklustre market in our eyes is that the mobile market has long been saturated and there is little incentive for operators to innovate in terms of services. The wireline market is contracting, despite consumers migrating to fibre-optic connections for their combined voice, broadband and TV needs. Lattelecom remains the dominant player as its principal rival - the newly-merged Baltcom / Izzi group - has yet to make significant strides on its plans to challenge the incumbent in the converged services market, even though it has many of the resources needed to do so. Finally, t he government still needs to push for reforms that will make it easier and more cost-effective for alternative players to access utilities' networks.

  • BMI believes there will be 2.864mn mobile subscriptions in Latvia at the end of 2014, a year-on-year (y-o-y) increase of 2.5% and a penetration rate of 140.3%. Market saturation and the disconnection of inactive prepaid accounts means subscription growth will be volatile through to 2018, when there will be 2.975mn subscribers.

  • 4G services are being rolled-out, but the relatively high costs are likely to have weighed on rapid adoption, particularly while 3.5G upgrades are still being deployed.

  • Broadband subscriptions are expected to number 2.232mn by the end of 2014, a figure BMI forecasts to rise to 2.694mn by 2018, driven largely by fibre and mobile broadband services. 

Key Developments

The roll out of 4G LTE services accelerated in 2014 as Tele2 joined LMT and Bité in offering advanced new mobile broadband services. The Swedish-backed operator recorded variable subscription growth as it transitioned customers to the new platform and disconnected some of the inactive prepaid accounts it had...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Mobile
8
Wireline
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Industry Forecast
14
Mobile
14
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts (Latvia 2011-2018)
14
ARPU
15
Wireline
17
Table: Telecoms Sector - Wireline - Historical Data & Forecasts (Latvia 2011-2018)
17
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
19
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q115
23
Market Overview
25
Mobile
25
Regional Perspective
25
Table: Latvia Mobile Market Regional Comparisons, 2013
26
Key Developments
26
Market Growth
26
Market Shares
28
Table: Latvia Mobile Subscribers, Q314 ('000)
30
Usage (MoU/ARPU)
32
3G/4G
34
Mobile Content
35
Mobile Operator Data
36
Table: Latvia Mobile Market Overview
36
Table: LMT
36
Table: Bit-
37
Table: Tele2
38
Central And Eastern Europe Mobile Content
39
Wireline
44
Wireline Voice
44
Broadband
47
Pay-TV
55
Industry Trends And Developments
57
Regulatory Development
59
Table: Latvia - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
60
Regulatory Developments
62
Competitive Landscape
64
Table: Key Players: Latvia Telecommunications Market
64
Table: Selected Operators' Financial Indicators
64
Company Profile
65
Lattelecom
65
Latvijas Mobilais Telefons (LMT)
69
Tele2 Latvia
72
Baltcom TV
75
Regional Overview
78
Glossary
84
Table: Glossary Of Terms
84
Demographic Forecast
86
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Latvia 1990-2025)
87
Table: Key Population Ratios (Latvia 1990-2025)
87
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Latvia 1990-2025)
88
Table: Population By Age Group (Latvia 1990-2025)
88
Table: Population By Age Group % (Latvia 1990-2025)
89
Methodology
91
Industry Forecast Methodology
91
Sources
93
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
93
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
94
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
95

The Latvia Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Latvia's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Latvia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Latvia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Latvia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Latvian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Latvia's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Latvia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
  • Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
    Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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