Libya Food & Drink Report

Published 22 May 2015

  • 81 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Libya Food & Drink Report

BMI View: The Libyan food and drink industry will continue to suffer from worsening political instability and severe government spending cuts . The dire humanitarian situation will also contribute to shrinking pri vate consumption growth . While we predict that the Libyan economy will return to growth in 201 6 from a sharp contraction in 2014 and 2015 , the headline print will mask a continued crisis in the domestic economy.

We project real GDP will contract by 18.5% in 2015, following an estimated 44.2% contraction in 2014. However, we project an average annual real GDP growth of 8.0% over the coming five years, which, while seemingly impressive, means the economy will only be two thirds of its nominal 2012 US dollar value by 2018.

Headline Industry Data

  • Total food consumption (local currency) growth in 2015: +8.8% year-on-year (y-o-y); compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2019: +8.9%

  • Per capita food consumption (local currency) growth in 2015: +7.7% y-o-y; CAGR to 2019: +7.5%

  • Total mass grocery retail sales (local currency) growth in 2015: +10.5% y-o-y; CAGR to 2019: +10.3%

Key Industry Trends

Libya Sees Sharp Fall In Agricultural Trade Interest: Following reports in the Tripoli Post in spring 2013 that exports of cattle and sheep to Libya from Ireland had resumed, Libya Business News reported in September 2014 that sheep imports from Ireland had fallen by 72% y-o-y in July due to Libya's continuing instability.

Key Risks To Outlook

The risks to our current consumer outlook are mostly to the downside. A political solution to the Libyan crisis will be elusive in 2015 and fighting will continue, with competing blocs having become increasingly intransigent and no single faction capable of defeating the other. The country currently has two opposing governments and parliaments. The internationally-recognised cabinet of Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thinni and the House of Representatives (HoR) - a largely anti-Islamist legislature elected in...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Food
9
Drink
11
Mass Grocery Retail
13
Industry Forecast
15
Consumer Outlook
15
Food
18
Food Consumption
18
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Libya 2012-2019)
19
Mass Grocery Retail
20
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Libya 2012-2019)
21
Trade
22
Macroeconomic Forecast
24
Economic Analysis
24
Table: Economic Activity (Libya 2010-2019)
32
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
33
Middle East And North Africa - Risk/Reward Index
33
Table: Middle East & North Africa Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Q315
35
Libya Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Market Overview
39
Food
39
Food Consumption
39
Food Production
39
Confectionery
40
Agriculture
41
Drink
42
Alcoholic Drinks
42
Soft Drinks
43
Hot Drinks
44
Mass Grocery Retail
45
Industry Trends And Developments
47
Food
47
Key Industry Trends And Developments
47
Drink
51
Key Industry Trends And Developments
51
Mass Grocery Retail
54
Key Industry Trends And Developments
54
Competitive Landscape
56
Table: Key Players In North Africa's Food & Drink Sector
56
Table: Key Players In North Africa's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
57
Company Profile
59
Cinnabon
59
Global Industry Overview
61
Table: Food and Drink Core Views - Q115 Roundup
68
Demographic Forecast
70
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Libya 1990-2025)
71
Table: Key Population Ratios (Libya 1990-2025)
71
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Libya 1990-2025)
72
Table: Population By Age Group (Libya 1990-2025)
72
Table: Population By Age Group % (Libya 1990-2025)
73
Glossary
75
Food & Drink
75
Mass Grocery Retail
75
Methodology
77
Industry Forecast Methodology
77
Sector-Specific Methodology
78
Sources
78
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
79
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Indicators
80
Table: Weighting
81

The Libya Food & Drink Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Libya Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Libya.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Libya to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Libyan food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Libya through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the mass grocery retail market.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Food Forecasts

BMI’s food chapter is divided into sections such as meat, fish, confectionary, dairy and canned foods, and provides insight into each market’s food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

  • Industry Forecast Scenario: Historical data series and a forecast to end-2019 for growth of key indicators within a market’s food industry. Indicators include food consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
  • Industry Developments: A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
  • Market Overview: An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food chapter, the drink section provides insight into each market’s drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into each market’s grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown of the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the mass grocery retail and food and drink industries via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. This chapter also includes data-rich, in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the region’s leading mass grocery retail and food and drink operators.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Food & Drink reports draw on an extensive network primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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