Libya Food & Drink Report

Published 14 August 2015

  • 83 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Libya Food & Drink Report

BMI View: The Libyan food and drink industry will continue to suffer from worsening political instability and severe government spending cuts . The dire humanitarian situation will also contribute to shrinking pri vate consumption growth . While we predict that the Libyan economy will return to growth in 201 6 from a sharp contraction in 2014 and 2015 , the headline print will mask a continued crisis in the domestic economy.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

  • Total food consumption growth in 2015: +4.8%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2019: +5.9%

  • Per capita food consumption growth in 2015: +3.8%; CAGR to 2019: +4.5%

  • Total mass grocery retail sales growth in 2015: +7.0%; CAGR to 2019: +8.2%

Key Industry Trends

Libya Sees Sharp Fall In Agricultural Trade Interest: Following reports in the Tripoli Post in spring 2013 that exports of cattle and sheep to Libya from Ireland had resumed, Libya Business News reported in September 2014 that sheep imports from Ireland had fallen by 72% y-o-y in July due to Libya's continuing instability.

Foreign Players Interested In North Africa : In June 2010, leading Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region mass grocery retail (MGR) player Spinneys announced that it would enter Libya by year-end 2011. However, these plans have since been delayed owing to the political events during 2011, with Spinneys yet to make its move into Libya. As Libya remains an untested retail market, regional retailers will watch closely as they gauge whether to follow Spinneys' lead. On the other hand, MENA hypermarket powerhouse Carrefour MAF has also yet to enter the country, although it is still thought to be interested in establishing a presence there.

Key Risks To Outlook

The risks to our current consumer outlook are mostly to the downside. A political solution to the Libyan crisis will be elusive in 2015 and fighting will continue, with competing blocs having become increasingly intransigent and no single...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Food
9
Drink
11
Mass Grocery Retail
13
Industry Forecast
15
Consumer Outlook
15
Food
17
Food Consumption
17
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Libya 2012-2019)
17
Mass Grocery Retail
18
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Libya 2012-2019)
18
Trade
19
Macroeconomic Forecast
20
Economic Analysis
20
Table: Economic Activity (Libya 2010-2019)
25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
26
Middle East And North Africa - Risk/Reward Index
26
Table: Middle East & North Africa Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Q415
28
Libya Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Market Overview
32
Food
32
Food Consumption
32
Food Production
32
Confectionery
33
Agriculture
34
Drink
35
Alcoholic Drinks
35
Soft Drinks
36
Hot Drinks
37
Mass Grocery Retail
38
Industry Trends And Developments
40
Food
40
Key Industry Trends And Developments
40
Drink
44
Key Industry Trends And Developments
44
Mass Grocery Retail
47
Key Industry Trends And Developments
47
Competitive Landscape
49
Table: Key Players In North Africa's Food & Drink Sector
49
Table: Key Players In North Africa's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
51
Company Profile
52
Cinnabon
52
Global Industry Overview
54
Table: Australia, Uk And Usa Estimated Herfindahl-Hirschman Index Scores - Food Retail Industry
57
Table: Boston Beer Company, Ab Inbev, Heineken And Sabmiller - Selected Trailing Return And Efficiency Ratios
65
Table: Food and Drink Core Views - Q215 Roundup
70
Demographic Forecast
72
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Libya 1990-2025)
73
Table: Key Population Ratios (Libya 1990-2025)
73
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Libya 1990-2025)
74
Table: Population By Age Group (Libya 1990-2025)
74
Table: Population By Age Group % (Libya 1990-2025)
75
Glossary
77
Food & Drink
77
Mass Grocery Retail
77
Methodology
79
Industry Forecast Methodology
79
Sector-Specific Methodology
80
Sources
80
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
81
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Indicators
82
Table: Weighting
83

The Libya Food & Drink Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Libya Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Libya.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Libya to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Libyan food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Libya through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the mass grocery retail market.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Food Forecasts

BMI’s food chapter is divided into sections such as meat, fish, confectionary, dairy and canned foods, and provides insight into each market’s food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

  • Industry Forecast Scenario: Historical data series and a forecast to end-2019 for growth of key indicators within a market’s food industry. Indicators include food consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
  • Industry Developments: A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
  • Market Overview: An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food chapter, the drink section provides insight into each market’s drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into each market’s grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown of the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the mass grocery retail and food and drink industries via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. This chapter also includes data-rich, in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the region’s leading mass grocery retail and food and drink operators.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Food & Drink reports draw on an extensive network primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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