BMI View : Despite its vast reserves base, the outlook on the Libyan oil and gas sector is poor. An escalation of fighting has brought a significant tranche of production offline, crippling exports. UN-brokered peace talks are seeking a resolution, but the deeply fractured nature of the political landscape continues to drag on progress. Continued insecurity, a low level of investment, poor reservoir management and widespread infrastructural damage will all slow the pace of recovery. We see oil and gas production remain depressed to below pre-Qadhafi levels across our 10-year forecast period.
Headline Forecasts (Libya 2013-2019)
| || 2013e || 2014e || 2015f || 2016f || 2017f || 2018f || 2019f |
| e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI |
| Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d || 900.8 || 496.6 || 438.3 || 567.8 || 709.7 || 848.5 || 890.9 |
| Dry natural gas production, bcm || 11.1 || 9.2 || 8.9 || 10.6 || 11.7 || 12.9 || 13.5 |
| Dry natural gas consumption, bcm || 5.4 || 2.7 || 2.2 || 2.4 || 2.5 || 2.6 || 2.6 |
| Refined products production, 000b/d || 151.1 || 136.0 || 149.6 || 164.5 || 181.0 || 199.1 || 209.0 |
| Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d || 248.0 || 186.0 || 171.1 || 179.7 || 197.6 || 205.5 || 213.8 |
The key trends and developments in Libya's oil and gas sector are:
Libya's oil and gas reserves stood at an estimated at 48.0bn barrels (bbl) and 1.5trn cubic metres (tcm), respectively, at the start of 2015. However, political risks, the introduction of new production sharing contracts and a revised hydrocarbon law are all likely to affect the country's business environment and international appetite for investment.
Ongoing instability in Libya affected production throughout 2014, and we expect this dynamic to continue through 2015. We forecast 2015 production of 397,000 barrels per day (b/d) of crude and condensates. We have revised down our longer-term forecast, expecting weaker investor sentiment and infrastructural and...
The Libya Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Libya including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Libya Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Libyan oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Libya to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Libyan oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Libyan oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Libya.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.