Libya Oil & Gas Report

Published 07 April 2015

  • 119 pages
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$1,295.00
Libya Oil & Gas Report

BMI View : Oil production in Libya remains highly volatile, as pervasive insecurity continues to disrupt operations. Despite a significant ramp-up in output in recent weeks, we expect repeated supply outages, dragging down overall production volumes for 2015. A protracted civil conflict will slow the pace of recovery over the coming years, depressing sustainable output levels below 1mn b/d, across our 10-year forecast period.

Headline Forecasts (Libya 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 993.5 472.2 439.0 643.8 705.5 773.3 811.2
Dry natural gas production, bcm 10.8 7.5 6.9 10.4 11.4 12.6 13.2
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 7.2 3.6 3.9 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 208.0 187.2 205.9 226.5 249.2 274.1 282.3
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 248.0 235.6 294.5 382.9 440.3 457.9 476.2

The key trends and developments in Libya's oil and gas sector are:

  • Libya's oil and gas reserves stood at an estimated at 48.0bn barrels (bbl) and 1.5trn cubic metres (tcm), respectively, at the start of 2015. However, political risks, the introduction of new production sharing contracts and a revised hydrocarbon law are all likely to affect the country's business environment and international appetite for investment.

  • Ongoing instability in Libya affected production throughout 2014, and we expect this dynamic to continue through 2015. We forecast 2015 production of 639,000 barrels per day (b/d). We have revised down our longer-term forecast, expecting weaker investor sentiment and infrastructural and reservoir damage to drag down the country's sustainable production levels.

  • We estimate that in 2015 gas production will decline to about 6.9bn cubic metres (bcm), as a result of...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Libya 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Upstream Exploration
9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Libya 2013-2018)
9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Libya 2019-2024)
9
Upstream Projects
14
Table: Libya Major Upstream Projects
14
Upstream Production - Oil
15
Table: Oil Production (Libya 2013-2018)
15
Table: Oil Production (Libya 2019-2024)
15
Upstream Production - Gas
18
Table: Gas Production (Libya 2013-2018)
18
Table: Gas Production (Libya 2019-2024)
18
Refining
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Libya 2013-2018)
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Libya 2019-2024)
21
Refined Fuels Consumption
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Libya 2013-2018)
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Libya 2019-2024)
24
Trade - Oil
26
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Libya 2013-2018)
26
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Libya 2019-2024)
26
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Libya 2013-2018)
28
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Libya 2019-2024)
29
Trade - Gas (Pipeline & LNG)
30
Table: Gas Net Exports (Libya 2013-2018)
30
Table: Gas Net Exports (Libya 2019-2024)
30
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
33
Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
33
Table: BMI's Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Index
34
Above-Ground Risks Dampen Upstream Outlook
36
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
36
Emergent Producers Stumble At Regulatory Hurdles
37
Mature Producers Continue To Underperform Their Potential
38
Falling Oil Price Trims Rewards
38
An Underwhelming Downstream
39
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
39
Libya - Risk/Reward Index
40
Libya Upstream Overview
40
Libya Upstream Rewards
40
Libya Upstream Risk
41
Libya Downstream Overview
41
Market Overview
42
Libya Energy Market Overview
42
Overview/State Role
44
Licensing And Regulation
44
Tax Law
45
Government Policy
45
Licensing Rounds
46
International Energy Relations
48
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
52
Oil Refineries
52
Table: Refineries In Libya
52
Oil Terminals
54
Oil Pipelines
55
LNG Terminals
55
Table: LNG Terminals In Libya
55
Gas Pipelines
56
Competitive Landscape
57
Competitive Landscape Summary
57
Table: Key Players - Libya Oil & Gas Sector
58
Table: Key Upstream Players
58
Company Profile
59
National Oil Corporation (NOC)
59
Eni North Africa
63
Total Libya
67
OMV Of Libya
69
Repsol Libya
72
Marathon Oil
75
ConocoPhillips
78
Other Summaries
82
Regional Overview
85
Africa Oil & Gas Regional Overview
85
Lower Risk Appetite Slowing Exploration Drive
85
Unconventionals: A New Frontier
88
East Africa: Offshore Gas, Onshore Oil
90
High-Risk Continent
91
Downstream Blues
93
Global Industry Overview
96
Global Industry Overview - Five Themes For 2015: Oil & Gas
96
Table: LNG Export Terminals At Pre-FID Stage
101
Appendix
103
Africa - Regional Appendix
103
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
103
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
104
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
104
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
105
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
106
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
107
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
107
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
108
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
109
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
110
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
110
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
111
Glossary
112
Table: Glossary Of Terms
112
Methodology
114
Industry Forecast Methodology
114
Source
116
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
116
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
118
Table: Weighting
119

The Libya Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Libya including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Libya Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Libyan oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Libya to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Libyan oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Libyan oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Libya.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc