Libya Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
×

Sign up to download the Libya Oil & Gas Report

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

You will shortly receive your free executive summary by email.

Libya Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View : Despite continued progress in negotiations between the rival Libyan governments, the country's security and political outlook remains heavily clouded. This in turn will continue to dampen upstream production growth, due to the repeated targeting of oil and gas infrastructure; damage to wellhead, processing and export facilities; a lack of essential maintenance works; and chronic underinvestment in the sector. Exports will see a similarly slow recovery, with revenues further undercut by persistently low global commodity prices. The outlook on the downstream is equally bearish, with poor refining efficiencies and continued feedstock issues severely undermin ing overall utilisation rates.

Headline Forecasts (Libya 2013-2019)
2013e 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 900.8 496.6 438.3 567.8 709.7 848.5 890.9
Dry natural gas production, bcm 11.1 10.9 11.4 13.6 15.0 16.5 17.3
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 5.4 4.3 4.1 4.5 4.6 5.3 5.7
Refined products production, 000b/d 151.1 136.0 149.6 164.5 181.0 199.1 209.0
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 248.0 186.0 171.1 179.7 197.6 205.5 213.8
Brent, USD/bbl 108.70 99.50 55.00 51.00 53.00 55.00 60.00

Key Trends & Latest Updates:

  • Piecemeal progress in the UN-brokered peace talks towards a Libyan unity government poses upside risk to our bearish oil and gas outlook. However, a polarised political scene and the deep fragmentation of the conflict will see insecurity remain an enduring feature of the country's operating environment over the coming years.

  • Exploration will remain heavily curtailed across much of our forecast period due to continued instability and unattractive fiscal and licensing terms. However, we expect greater exploration in the prospective offshore plays. Ongoing instability in Libya affected production throughout 2015, and we expect this dynamic to continue into 2016. However, incremental improvements in the political and security outlook will support a y-o-y gain in crude and condensates output, averaging 517,000b/d.

  • We estimate that in 2016 gas production will also rise, reaching 9.1bcm for the year.

  • We expect refineries to operate below their utilisation rate, due to both interruptions in the oil supply and the targeting of oil and gas infrastructure by opponents to the central governments.

  • The risks to our view lie largely to the upside and an improvement in Libya's political situation and resultant gains in operational stability could support a more consistent recovery in production and exports. However, this is not our core view at present.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Libya 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Upstream Exploration
9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Libya 2013-2018)
9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Libya 2019-2024)
9
Upstream Projects
14
Table: Libya Major Upstream Projects
14
Upstream Production - Oil
17
Table: Oil Production (Libya 2013-2018)
17
Table: Oil Production (Libya 2019-2024)
17
Upstream Production - Gas
21
Table: Gas Production (Libya 2013-2018)
21
Table: Gas Production (Libya 2019-2024)
21
Refining
24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Libya 2013-2018)
24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Libya 2019-2024)
24
Refined Fuels Consumption
27
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Libya 2013-2018)
27
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Libya 2019-2024)
27
Gas Consumption
30
Table: Gas Consumption (Libya 2013-2018)
30
Table: Gas Consumption (Libya 2019-2024)
30
Trade - Oil
32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Libya 2013-2018)
32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Libya 2019-2024)
32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Libya 2013-2018)
37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Libya 2013-2018)
37
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Libya 2013-2018)
39
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Libya 2019-2024)
39
Trade - Gas (Pipeline & LNG)
40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Libya 2019-2024)
41
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
44
Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
44
Table: BMI's Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
44
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential
47
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
47
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity
50
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
50
Libya - Risk/Reward Index
52
Libya Upstream Overview
52
Libya Upstream Rewards
52
Libya Upstream Risk
52
Libya Downstream Overview
53
Market Overview
54
Libya Energy Market Overview
54
Overview/State Role
54
Licensing And Regulation
54
Tax Law
55
Click here to enter text
55
Licensing Rounds
55
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
57
Oil Refineries
57
Table: Refineries In Libya
57
Oil Terminals
59
Oil Pipelines
60
LNG Terminals
60
Table: LNG Terminals In Libya
60
Gas Pipelines
61
Competitive Landscape
62
Competitive Landscape Summary
62
Table: Key Players - Libya Oil & Gas Sector
63
Table: Key Upstream Players
64
Company Profile
65
ConocoPhillips
65
Eni North Africa
69
Marathon Oil
74
National Oil Corporation (NOC)
77
OMV Of Libya
81
Repsol Libya
84
Total Libya
86
Other Summaries
88
Regional Overview
91
Africa Oil & Gas Regional Overview
91
Global Industry Overview
99
Global Energy Market Overview
99
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
99
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
102
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
103
Appendix
105
Africa - Regional Appendix
105
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
105
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
106
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
106
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
108
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
109
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
110
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
111
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
111
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
112
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
113
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
114
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
115
Libya - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
116
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption And Net Exports (Libya 2013-2018)
116
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Libya 2019-2024)
116
Libya - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
117
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Libya 2013-2018)
117
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Libya 2019-2024)
118
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Libya 2013-2018)
119
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Libya 2019-2024)
120
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Libya 2019-2024)
122
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Libya 2019-2024)
123
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
124
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
124
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
125
Glossary
127
Table: Glossary Of Terms
127
Methodology
129
Industry Forecast Methodology
129
Source
131
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
131
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
133
Table: Weighting
134

The Libya Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Libya including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Libya Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Libyan oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Libya to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Libyan oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Libyan oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Libya.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.