Libya Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Libya Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View : Progress towards formation of a unity government offers upside risk to production from 2017. However, a fractured political and security environment, widespread damage to infrastructur e and the legacy of chronic underinvestment in the sector will all serve to slow the pace of recovery. Consumption will remain heavily constrained, due to continued violence, repeated fuel and gas shortages and broader economic dislocation.

Headline Forecasts (Libya 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 476.1 420.6 386.6 519.0 645.2 768.1 842.8
Refined products production, 000b/d 136.0 149.6 152.6 167.8 184.6 193.8 203.5
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 181.5 167.0 167.8 199.7 209.7 220.2 231.2
Dry natural gas production, bcm 11.8 12.2 12.3 14.1 15.5 16.3 17.1
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 5.2 4.9 5.4 5.5 6.4 6.8 7.2
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 46.50 57.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Key Trends & Latest Updates

  • Piecemeal progress in the UN-brokered peace talks towards a Libyan unity government poses upside risk to our bearish oil and gas outlook. However, a polarised political scene and the deep fragmentation of the conflict will see insecurity remain an enduring feature of the country's operating environment over the coming years.

  • Exploration will remain heavily curtailed across much of our forecast period due to continued instability and unattractive fiscal and licensing terms.

  • Ongoing instability in Libya affected production throughout 2015, and we expect this dynamic to continue into 2016. We forecast an 10.0% y-o-y decline in crude and condensates output, averaging 358,000b/d.

  • Gas output has been somewhat less affected than crude and we estimate that in 2016 gas production will remain broadly stagnant, at 12.3bcm.

  • Refineries will operate below capacity, due to both interruptions in the oil supply and the targeting of oil and gas infrastructure by opponents to the central governments.

  • The risks to our view lie largely to the upside and an improvement in Libya's political situation and resultant gains in operational stability could support a more consistent recovery in production and exports. However, this is not our core view at present.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Libya 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Upstream Exploration
9
Latest Updates
9
Structural Trends
9
Upstream Projects
14
Table: Libya Major Upstream Projects
14
Upstream Production - Oil
17
Latest Updates
17
Structural Trends
17
Table: Oil Production (Libya 2014-2019)
20
Table: Oil Production (Libya 2020-2025)
20
Upstream Production - Gas
21
Latest Updates
21
Structural Trends
21
Table: Gas Production (Libya 2014-2019)
23
Table: Gas Production (Libya 2020-2025)
23
Refining
24
Latest Updates
24
Structural Trends
24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Libya 2014-2019)
26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Libya 2020-2025)
26
Refined Fuels Consumption
27
Latest Updates
27
Structural Trends
27
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Libya 2014-2019)
29
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Libya 2020-2025)
29
Gas Consumption
30
Latest Updates
30
Structural Trends
30
Table: Gas Consumption (Libya 2014-2019)
31
Table: Gas Consumption (Libya 2020-2025)
31
Trade - Oil
32
Latest Updates
32
Structural Trends: Crude Oil
32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Libya 2014-2020)
34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Libya 2020-2025)
35
Structural Trends: Refined Fuels
35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Libya 2014-2019)
36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Libya 2020-2025)
36
Trade - Gas (Pipeline & LNG)
37
Latest Updates
37
Structural Trends
37
Table: Gas Net Exports (Libya 2014-2019)
38
Table: Gas Net Exports (Libya 2020-2025)
39
Industry Risk/Reward Index
40
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
40
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
40
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential
43
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
43
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity
46
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
46
Libya - Risk/Reward Index
49
Upstream Rewards
49
Upstream Risks
49
Downstream
50
Market Overview
51
Libya Energy Market Overview
51
Regulatory Structure
51
Licensing Regime
52
Table: Model EPSA Main Licensing Terms
52
Fiscal Regime
52
Table: Model EPSA Main Fiscal Terms
52
Licensing Rounds
52
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
53
Oil Refineries
53
Table: Libya Oil Refineries
53
Oil Terminals
53
Table: Libya Oil Terminals
53
LNG Terminals
54
Table: LNG Terminals In Libya
54
Oil & Gas Pipelines
54
Table: Libya Main Export Pipelines
54
Competitive Landscape
55
Competitive Landscape Summary
55
Table: Key Players - Libya Oil & Gas Sector
56
Table: Key Upstream Players
57
Company Profile
58
NOC
58
Latest Updates
58
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Libya
59
Regional Overview
60
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil
60
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
68
Glossary
69
Table: Glossary Of Terms
69
Methodology
71
Industry Forecast Methodology
71
Source
73
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
73
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
75
Table: Weighting
76

The Libya Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Libya including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Libya Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Libyan oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Libya to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Libyan oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Libyan oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Libya.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.