Lithuania Food & Drink Report

Published 15 December 2014

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Lithuania Food & Drink Report

While a breakdown of the Q314 GDP figure is not available at the time of writing, we believe domestic demand has also suffered due to the significance of the external sector for Lithuania's small, open economy. Lending support to our view has been a series of high-frequency economic indicators. Industrial production contracted by 0.5% y-o-y in September on a workday-adjusted basis. While pointing to growing pressure on private consumption, the modest abatement in retail trade growth is also reflective of the resilience of the household sector, which has been bolstered by falling unemployment and rising wages.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

  • Per capita food consumption growth in 2014: +2.9%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2018: +3.7%

  • Alcoholic drinks sales value growth in 2014: +2.0%; CAGR to 2018: +4.6%

  • Total mass grocery retail sales growth in 2014: +0.8%; CAGR to 2018: +6.2%

Key Company Trends

Retail Sales Grow 4.1% In July : Lithuania recorded a 4.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in retail sales, excluding VAT, in July, according to data released by the Department of Statistics on August 27. Retail sales, excluding automotive fuel, grew 3.9% y-o-y. Sales of non-food products increased 6.3% and sales of food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco increased by 1.8% y-o-y. At constant prices, retail sales rose 7.5% month-on-month (m-o-m). Retail sales, after seasonal adjustment, were up 0.6% m-o-m.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Food
8
Drink
10
Mass Grocery Retail
12
Industry Forecast
13
Consumer Outlook
13
Food
16
Food Consumption
16
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2018)
16
Meat
17
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (Lithuania 2013-2018)
17
Snack Food
17
Table: Sweet Biscuits Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Lithuania 2013-2018)
18
Table: Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (Lithuania 2013-2018)
18
Other Tables
19
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Lithuania 2013-2018)
19
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Lithuania 2013-2018)
19
Drink
21
Alcoholic Drinks
21
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Lithuania 2013-2018)
22
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Lithuania 2013-2018)
23
Hot Drinks
24
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Lithuania 2013-2018)
24
Mass Grocery Retail
26
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Lithuania 2013-2018)
27
Table: Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format
27
Table: Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts (Lithuania 2013-2018)
28
Macroeconomic Forecasts
29
Economic Analysis
29
Table: Lithuania - Economic Activity
34
Industry Risk Reward Index
35
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Index
35
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Q115
36
Market Overview
40
Food
40
Food Consumption
40
Food Processing
40
Trade
42
Agriculture
42
Drink
43
Alcoholic Drinks
43
Soft Drinks
45
Hot Drinks
47
Mass Grocery Retail
48
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Lithuania 2005-2014)
49
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Lithuania 2005-2014)
50
Industry Trends And Developments
51
Food
51
Key Industry Trends And Developments
51
Drink
52
Key Industry Trends And Developments
52
Mass Grocery Retail
52
Competitive Landscape
53
Table: Key Players In Lithuania's Food Sector
53
Table: Key Players In Lithuania's Drink Sector
54
Table: Key Players In Lithuania's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
54
Company Profile
56
IKI Group
56
Paulig Baltic AS
58
AB Rokiskio Suris
60
Kalnapilis-Tauro Grupe
62
Stumbras
64
AB Alita
66
Rimia Baltic AB
68
Maxima LT
70
Global Industry Overview
72
Table: Dollar General And Family Dollar Historic Quarterly Same-Store Sales Growth (% Change Y-O-Y)
76
Table: Selected US And Global Spirits Companies - Historical Financial Indicators
79
Table: Select US Beverage Companies - Historic Eva Spread
81
Table: Food and Drink Team's Core Views
82
Demographic Forecast
84
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Lithuania 1990-2025)
85
Table: Key Population Ratios (Lithuania 1990-2025)
85
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Lithuania 1990-2025)
86
Table: Population By Age Group (Lithuania 1990-2025)
86
Table: Population By Age Group % (Lithuania 1990-2025)
87
Glossary
89
Food & Drink
89
Mass Grocery Retail
89
Methodology
91
Industry Forecast Methodology
91
Sector-Specific Methodology
92
Sources
92
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
93
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Indicators
94
Table: Weighting
95

The Lithuania Food & Drink Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Lithuania Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Lithuania.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Lithuania to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Lithuanian food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Lithuania through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the mass grocery retail market.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Food Forecasts

BMI’s food chapter is divided into sections such as meat, fish, confectionary, dairy and canned foods, and provides insight into each market’s food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

  • Industry Forecast Scenario: Historical data series and a forecast to end-2019 for growth of key indicators within a market’s food industry. Indicators include food consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
  • Industry Developments: A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
  • Market Overview: An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food chapter, the drink section provides insight into each market’s drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into each market’s grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown of the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the mass grocery retail and food and drink industries via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. This chapter also includes data-rich, in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the region’s leading mass grocery retail and food and drink operators.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Food & Drink reports draw on an extensive network primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc