Lithuania Infrastructure Report

Published 22 December 2014

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Lithuania Infrastructure Report

BMI View: The deteriorating relations between Russia and the EU are proving to have a detrimental effect on Lithuanian economic momentum - weak demand from Russia and elsewhere, and poor investment confidence. However, the economy is forecast to strengthen beyond 2015 as the external situation improves, and while the infrastructure will ultimately stagnate over the next decade, there are still opportunities in construction, and EU-funded transport and energy developments.

In the long term, despite a slowing and moderated growth picture, we do not expect any major fluctuations, and while steadiness may not spell a market with abundant opportunity, investors can be assured of Lithuania's position as an attractive investment destination, owing to its EU membership. Lithuania's fiscal deficit converging with EU-prescribed targets, achieving a nominal shortfall below 3% of GDP and adopting the euro in 2015 will all bolster investor confidence, thereby promoting foreign investment and keeping security risks low. Help will also come from the EU's support of Lithuania's energy independence projects and regional transport integration investments.

Key Trends And Developments

  • The Lithuanian Ministry of Transport and Communications plans a 72.5km highway to improve transport links between Vilnius and Utena. The private-public partnership project involves resurfacing the existing highway. The contract for the project will also involve a 10-year maintenance programme, which will start after the completion of construction work. Resurfacing work will begin in 2016 and is expected to be completed in 2019.

  • A boon to Baltic LNG supply is the opening of a terminal in Klaipeda, Lithuania. Alluding to Baltic cooperation and solidarity, and the end of a perceived Russian monopoly on gas supply to the region, Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite said: 'As our energy sources become more diverse, our energy security gets stronger. Lithuania has consistently worked to...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Market Overview
7
SWOT Analysis
8
Lithuania Infrastructure Industry SWOT
8
Building Materials
9
Europe
9
Table: Cement Price / Volume, % Variance (6M11/6M12)
13
Industry Forecast Scenario
14
Table: Lithuania Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010-2016
14
Table: Lithuania Construction And Infrastructure Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
15
Transport Infrastructure
19
Table: Lithuania Transport Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010-2016
19
Table: Lithuania Transport Infrastructure Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
21
Transport Infrastructure Outlook and Overview
23
Major Projects Table - Transport
26
Table: Major Projects - Transport
26
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure
27
Table: Lithuania Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010-2016
27
Table: Lithuania Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Long-term Forecasts, 2015-2021
29
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Outlook and Overview
31
Major Projects Table - Energy And Utilities
33
Table: Major Projects - Energy And Utilities
33
Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure
35
Table: Lithuania Residential And Non-Residential Building Industry Data, 2010-2016
35
Table: Lithuania Residential And Non-Residential Building Long-term Forecasts, 2015-2021
35
Residential and Non-Residential Construction Forecast Scenario
36
Business Environment
37
Lithuania Business Environment Overview
37
Rewards
37
Risk To Realisation Of Potential Returns
37
Regional Overview
38
Central and Eastern Europe Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Table: CEE Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings, Scores Out Of 100
40
Company Monitor
41
AB YIT Kaustas
41
AB Panevezio Statybos Trestas (PST)
43
Global Overview
45
Methodology
52
Industry Forecasts
52
Construction Industry
53
Data Methodology
53
New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors
53
Construction
55
Capital Investment
55
Construction Sector Employment
56
Infrastructure Risk Reward Rating
57
Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators
58
Sources
59

The Lithuania Infrastructure Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Lithuania Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Lithuanian infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Lithuania to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Lithuanian infrastructure market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Lithuanian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Lithuania.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).

Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.

The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).

BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and  demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc