BMI View: Despite a slowing and muted construction industry growth picture, we do not expect any major fluctuations, and while steadiness may not spell a market with abundant opportunity, investors can be assured of Lithuania's position as an attractive investment destination, owing to its EU membership. The EU is investing heavily across the Baltic region in energy and transport corridors to diversify energy supply and improve business ties.
Growth in Lithuania's construction industry will slow drastically by 2025, when we forecast a 0.3% contraction, from 14.3% in 2014 and 6.5% in 2015, as the small market matures and EU integration projects complete.
Over the next decade, we foresee annual average residential building growth of only 5.8%, as demand ultimately slows, with ownership already high in Lithuania.
The transport sector will account for 58.8% of the total infrastructure industry in 2016 and reach 63.0% by 2025. This is boosted by annual average sector growth of 4.0% between 2016 and 2025, as the sector sees more investment than energy over the decade.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Statistics Lithuania, BMI|
|Construction industry value, EURbn||2.36||2.52||2.70||2.94||3.15||3.35||3.56|
|Construction Industry Value, Real Growth, % y-o-y||14.33||6.45||5.48||6.49||4.11||3.47||3.39|
|Construction Industry Value, % of GDP||6.5||6.8||6.8||6.9||7.0||7.0||7.0|
With an overall score of 55.0 points, an improvement on the previous 52.9, Lithuania now beats the regional average of 54.0 in BMI's Risk/Reward Index for the Infrastructure sector in Central and Eastern Europe. Construction growth potential is limited at an average of 4.2% year-on-year between 2016 and 2025 (according to BMI forecasts), yet Lithuania will remain the largest Baltic market, while improvements can be expected in the business and investment environment.
|Risk/Reward Index||Rewards||Industry Rewards||Country Rewards||Risks||Industry Risks||Country Risks|
The Lithuania Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Lithuania Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Lithuanian infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Lithuania to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Lithuanian infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Lithuanian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Lithuania.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).
Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.
The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).
BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.