BMI View: Lithuania's insurance market is underdeveloped, with limited penetration and density in both the life and non-life sectors. However the country offers substantial growth potential and benefits from the presence of a number of large regional and global insurers which bring expertise and capital stability to the market. We are forecasting steady growth in premiums across the insurance market over the forecast period and in conjunction with a transparent regulatory environment this makes Lithuania an increasing ly attractive investment destination.
The domestic economy in Lithuania is expected to slow somewhat in 2015 and 2016, and we have revised down our real GDP growth outlook for the country as the impact of Russia's economic crisis on Lithuania has been more pronounced than we had anticipated. As a result, we have downgraded our forecast for real GDP growth to 2.5% in 2015 and 3.1% in 2016, from our previous forecasts of 2.8% and 3.3% respectively. Short-term currency fluctuations will also impact the market and mean that we expect to see double-digit declines in life and non-life premiums in US dollar terms over 2015, before returning to growth in 2016. In local currency terms, we expect to see positive growth driven by an increase in private financial consumption - with our forecasts supported by the latest Bank of Lithuania figures, which show steady growth in life and non-life premiums over the first half of 2015.
Several large and strong multi-national firms have a presence in Lithuania and recent months have seen a number of acquisitions in the market, reflecting the attractiveness of the country's growth potential. The large insurance firms will be able to manage increasing capital requirements following the introduction of the Solvency II regime, though we may see some smaller players priced out of the market which gives scope for entry into the market via local acquisitions, particularly in the non-life sector.
Lithuania's non life sector...
The Lithuania Insurance Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the insurance sector. It examines industry developments, key growth drivers and risk management projections, including the macroeconomic situation, government policy, regulatory environment and the level of development and potential for growth, broken down by line. Leading insurers are profiled, covering premiums, products and services and competitive positioning.
BMI's Lithuania Insurance Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Lithuanian insurance industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent insurance industry forecasts for Lithuania to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in Lithuania's insurance market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Lithuania through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, investments and macroeconomic developments.
- Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the Life and Non-Life segments, the evolving competitive landscape and business operational risks.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the insurance sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2005-2014) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Life/non-life Premiums: Total premium growth (USDmn), premium growth (% y-o-y), penetration (% of GDP), density (USD per capita) for Life and Non-Life sectors, claims reinsurance, and assets and liabilities.
- Non-life subsectors: Data on gross written premiums for all major Non-Life segments (motor, transport, property, personal accident, health, general liability and credit financial).
BMI’s Insurance Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (Life and Non-Life) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Growth Drivers & Risk Management Projections
Key data and forecasts to end-2019 focusing on the growth drivers and downside risks to specific insurance lines including:
- Population: Male/female, by age group, active/pensionable/youth population % of total, urban/rural population % of total.
- Freight: Tonnage – air freight, rail freight, road freight, inland waterway.
- Motor: Fleet size by type of vehicle % change y-o-y.
- Epidemiology: Disease Adjusted Life Years and private health expenditure.
Market Overview & Rankings
Illustration of the insurance industry via rankings tables comparing gross written premiums by company (USDmn) and market share (%) for the top 20 players in both Life and Non-Life. This chapter also includes in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the leading insurance companies.
The insurance Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.