Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Lithuania's pharmaceutical and healthcare market represents a modest prospect for investment from multinational firms. Increasing demand due to a rising burden of chronic disease will translate to an increase in sales; however, fiscal policies and the small size of the market will limit revenue earning opportunities.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: EUR601mn (USD806mn) in 2014 to EUR616mn (USD677mn) in 2015; +2.4% in local currency terms and -16.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from Q215.

  • Healthcare: EUR2.14bn (USD2.87bn) in 2014 to EUR2.14bn (USD2.36bn) in 2015; +0.1% in local currency terms and -17.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from Q215.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Lithuania 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 0.762 0.806 0.677 0.682 0.731 0.800 0.875
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 1.64 1.67 1.65 1.61 1.57 1.54 1.52
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 26.8 28.1 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9
Health spending, USDbn 2.847 2.865 2.355 2.352 2.519 2.759 3.033

Risk/Reward Index

Lithuania has an RRI score of 49.1 out of 100, making it the 12th most attractive pharmaceutical market in Central and Eastern Europe. Lithuania scores below the regional average score of 49.6 in Q116. Lithuania scores 13.6 for Industry Rewards, below the regional average (16.8), with the country's limited size holding back its score. Lithuania's overall Reward score of 27.7 is below the regional average (29.9), highlighting the limited growth outlook for pharmaceuticals and the small overall size of the Lithuanian market.

Latest Updates

  • In October 2015, Lithuania's members of parliament approved a 2016 draft budget for the Compulsory Health Insurance Fund.

  • In October 2015, the European Commission's vice president advised Lithuania to improve the accessibility of electronic health services.

  • Bioresus announced plans to build a factory in Alytus for the production of heparin, with production to start in 2017.

BMI Economic View

Lithuania will record a slightly larger budget deficit over our short-term outlook on the back of increase expenditures and stagnant revenue growth. However, much like its Baltic neighbours, the deficit will be small and manageable, financed through a small increase in public debt.

BMI Political View

Tensions with Russia will continue however, Russia's increasing involvement in the Middle East and Lithuania's membership of NATO mean we do not expect Russia to launch any kind of military attack in 2016. Nonetheless, it is likely that displays of aggression will continue in the form of new military bases being constructed close to the Lithuanian border and troop movements designed to intimidate.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
17
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
17
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
18
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
19
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
20
Patented Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
22
Generic Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
24
OTC Market Forecast
25
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
26
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
27
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2013-2019)
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Lithuania 2013-2019)
29
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
29
Macroeconomic Forecasts
30
Economic Analysis
30
Industry Risk Reward Indices
36
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index - Q4 2015
36
Lithuania Risk/Reward Index
42
Rewards
42
Risks
42
Market Overview
44
Industry Trends And Developments
46
Epidemiology
46
Table: Leading Causes of Death, 2005-2013
47
Table: Cancer Incidence Rates, 2012-2035
49
Communicable Diseases
50
Table: Incidence of HIV & AIDS, 2002-2010
51
Healthcare System
51
Healthcare Provision
51
Table: Healthcare Resources (Lithuania 2009-2014)
52
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Lithuania 2009-2014)
52
Table: Healthcare Activity (Lithuania 2009-2014)
53
Healthcare Funding
53
Healthcare Insurance
54
Research & Development
54
Clinical Trials
56
Regulatory Development
58
Regional Harmonisation
59
Pharmaceutical Advertising
60
Intellectual Property Regime
61
Pricing Regime
62
Table: Wholesale Mark-Ups For Reimbursed And Non-Reimbursed Medicines
63
Reimbursement Regime
64
Table: Retail Mark-Ups For Reimbursed And Non-Reimbursed Medicines
65
Competitive Landscape
66
Pharmaceutical Industry
66
Table: Members of the Association of Manufacturers of Drugs (VGA), 2013
66
Research-Based Industry
67
Table: Members of the Innovative Pharmaceutical Industry Association (IFPA)
68
Generic Drugmakers
68
Recent Company Developments
69
Pharmaceutical Wholesale
69
Pharmaceutical Retail
70
Table: Pharmacies, 2000-2012
71
Company Profile
73
Valentis
73
Sanitas (Valeant)
75
Sicor Biotech (Teva)
78
GlaxoSmithKline
81
Pfizer
84
Novartis
86
Merck & Co
88
Sanofi
90
Demographic Forecast
92
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Lithuania 1990-2025)
93
Table: Key Population Ratios (Lithuania 1990-2025)
93
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Lithuania 1990-2025)
94
Table: Population By Age Group (Lithuania 1990-2025)
94
Table: Population By Age Group % (Lithuania 1990-2025)
95
Glossary
97
Methodology
99
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
99
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
99
Notes On Methodology
100
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
101
Index Overview
102
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
102
Indicator Weightings
103

The Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Lithuania pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Lithuania, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Lithuanian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Lithuanian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Lithuania.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.