Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 25 June 2015

  • 103 pages
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$1,295.00
Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Continued price cuts to pharmaceuticals and the spill over effect from the downturn in the Russian economy will continue to have an impact on the Lithuanian pharmaceutical market. Nevertheless, rising wages and falling food prices will support growth in spending on consumer healthcare products, namely OTC medicines.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: EUR601mn (USD806mn) in 2014 to EUR618mn(USD680mn) in 2015; +2.7% in local currency terms and -15.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from Q215.

  • Healthcare: EUR2.14bn (USD2.87bn) in 2014 to EUR2.15bn (USD2.36bn) in 2015; +0.3% in local currency terms and -17.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from Q215.

Risk/Reward Index

Lithuania has a Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score of 48.0 out of 100, making it the 13th most attractive pharmaceutical market in Central and Eastern Europe. Lithuania scores below the regional average score of 49.5 in Q315. Lithuania scores (13.6 below the regional average for Industry Rewards (16.9), with the country's limited size holding back its score. Lithuania's overall Reward score of 26.6 is below the regional average (29.8), highlighting the limited growth outlook for pharmaceuticals and the small overall size of the Lithuanian market.

Key Trends and Developments

  • In May 2015, Lithuania's healthcare system completed a pilot of a nationwide electronic prescription system. Backend functions of the new system were also tested in medical institutions, highlighting the progress that Lithuania is making in transitioning to e-health services.

  • In April 2015, prices of reimbursed medicines were revised by the Ministry of Health, with almost 1300 medicines seeing their prices reduced and seven drugs seeing price hikes. The new prices will save the health insurance fund some EUR9mn (USD9.54mn) in 2015.

  • In March 2015, Lithuanian parliament passed an amendment to the Law on Medicines enabling pharmacists to give pharmaceutical advice to...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
17
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
18
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
18
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
19
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
20
Patented Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
22
Generic Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
24
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
24
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
26
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
27
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2013-2019)
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Lithuania 2013-2019)
28
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
29
Macroeconomic Forecasts
30
Economic Analysis
30
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
34
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
34
Lithuania Risk/Reward Index
40
Rewards
40
Risks
40
Market Overview
42
Industry Trends And Developments
44
Epidemiology
44
Table: Leading Causes of Death, 2005-2013
45
Table: Cancer Incidence Rates, 2012-2035
47
Communicable Diseases
48
Table: Incidence of HIV & AIDS, 2002-2010
49
Healthcare System
49
Healthcare Provision
49
Table: Healthcare Resources, 2009-2014
50
Table: Healthcare Activity, 2009-2014
50
Table: Healthcare Personnel, 2009-2014
51
Healthcare Funding
51
Healthcare Insurance
52
Research & Development
52
Clinical Trials
54
Regulatory Development
55
Regional Harmonisation
56
Pharmaceutical Advertising
57
Intellectual Property Regime
58
Pricing Regime
59
Table: Wholesale Mark-Ups For Reimbursed And Non-Reimbursed Medicines
59
Reimbursement Regime
61
Table: Retail Mark-Ups For Reimbursed And Non-Reimbursed Medicines
62
Competitive Landscape
63
Pharmaceutical Industry
63
Table: Members of the Association of Manufacturers of Drugs (VGA), 2013
63
Research-Based Industry
64
Table: Members of the Innovative Pharmaceutical Industry Association (IFPA)
65
Generic Drugmakers
65
Recent Company Developments
66
Pharmaceutical Wholesale
66
Pharmaceutical Retail
67
Table: Pharmacies, 2000-2010
68
Company Profile
70
Valentis
70
Sanitas (Valeant)
72
Sicor Biotech (Teva)
75
GlaxoSmithKline
78
Pfizer
81
Novartis
83
Merck & Co
85
Sanofi
87
Demographic Forecast
89
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Lithuania 1990-2025)
90
Table: Key Population Ratios (Lithuania 1990-2025)
90
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Lithuania 1990-2025)
91
Table: Population By Age Group (Lithuania 1990-2025)
91
Table: Population By Age Group % (Lithuania 1990-2025)
92
Glossary
94
Methodology
96
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
96
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
96
Notes On Methodology
97
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
98
Index Overview
99
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
99
Indicator Weightings
100

The Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Lithuania pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Lithuania, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Lithuanian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Lithuanian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Lithuania.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc