BMI View: Lithuania's pharmaceutical and healthcare market represents a modest prospect for investment from multinational firms. A rising burden of chronic disease will translate in to an increase in demand and sales; however, fiscal policies and the small size of the market will limit revenue earning opportunities.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR616mn (USD683mn) in 2015 to EUR633mn (USD678mn) in 2016; +2.4% in local currency terms and -0.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from Q 2 16 .
Healthcare: EUR2.45bn (USD2.72bn) in 2015 to EUR2.56bn (USD2.74bn) in 2016; 4.4% in local currency terms and 0.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from Q 2 16 .
|*figures rounded to two decimal places. f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, State Medicines Control Agency (VVKT), AESGP, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.800||0.680||0.680||0.730||0.800||0.870||0.920|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.65||1.65||1.63||1.60||1.57||1.55||1.53|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||25.5||25.1||24.7||24.6||24.6||24.6||24.6|
|Health spending, USDbn||3.130||2.720||2.740||2.950||3.240||3.550||3.720|
In BMI's Q316 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) Lithuania is ranked 12th out of the 20 markets in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) matrix with an unchanged score of 52.7 from with the previous quarter. Lithuania scores slightly above the regional average score of 52.2 in Q316. The country's overall Rewards score of 31.3 is below the regional average (33.0) despite a higher-than-average County Rewards score; its Industry Rewards score is low because the small population size will continue to be an absolute limit in terms of the pharmaceutical market size and in determining longer-term opportunities.
In April 2016, Lithuania's State Tax Inspectorate announced that Lithuanian citizens and foreigners must pay for the compulsory health insurance only if they are permanently residing in the country.
In March 2016, Juras Pozela was appointed as the new Minister of Health after the previous Minister was forced to resign over allegations of corruption.
In April 2016, the President of Lithuania and the Princess of Thailand discussed the prospect for bilateral trade and investment, with a specific focus on pharmaceuticals.
BMI Economic View
Lithuania will enjoy accelerating real GDP growth in 2016 and 2017, as real wage growth boosts consumption, and a stronger regional outlook improves foreign trade. Alongside an extension of loose monetary policy and quantitative easing, a recovery in investment will be encouraged.
BMI Political View
Despite the waning popularity of Prime Minister Algirdas Butkevicius, the Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (SDP) enters an election year in a strong position, leading in the latest opinion polls. We expect an SDP victory in the 2016 parliamentary elections, although the party will be forced to form a coalition after failing to reach a majority on their own.
The Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Lithuania pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Lithuania, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Lithuanian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Lithuanian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Lithuania.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.