Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 25 June 2015

  • 103 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Continued price cuts to pharmaceuticals and the spill over effect from the downturn in the Russian economy will continue to have an impact on the Lithuanian pharmaceutical market. Nevertheless, rising wages and falling food prices will support growth in spending on consumer healthcare products, namely OTC medicines.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: EUR601mn (USD806mn) in 2014 to EUR618mn(USD680mn) in 2015; +2.7% in local currency terms and -15.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from Q215.

  • Healthcare: EUR2.14bn (USD2.87bn) in 2014 to EUR2.15bn (USD2.36bn) in 2015; +0.3% in local currency terms and -17.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from Q215.

Risk/Reward Index

Lithuania has a Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score of 48.0 out of 100, making it the 13th most attractive pharmaceutical market in Central and Eastern Europe. Lithuania scores below the regional average score of 49.5 in Q315. Lithuania scores (13.6 below the regional average for Industry Rewards (16.9), with the country's limited size holding back its score. Lithuania's overall Reward score of 26.6 is below the regional average (29.8), highlighting the limited growth outlook for pharmaceuticals and the small overall size of the Lithuanian market.

Key Trends and Developments

  • In May 2015, Lithuania's healthcare system completed a pilot of a nationwide electronic prescription system. Backend functions of the new system were also tested in medical institutions, highlighting the progress that Lithuania is making in transitioning to e-health services.

  • In April 2015, prices of reimbursed medicines were revised by the Ministry of Health, with almost 1300 medicines seeing their prices reduced and seven drugs seeing price hikes. The new prices will save the health insurance fund some EUR9mn (USD9.54mn) in 2015.

  • In March 2015, Lithuanian parliament passed an amendment to the Law on Medicines enabling pharmacists to give pharmaceutical advice to...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
17
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
18
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
18
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
19
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
20
Patented Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
22
Generic Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
24
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
25
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
26
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
27
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2013-2019)
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Lithuania 2013-2019)
29
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
29
Macroeconomic Forecasts
30
Economic Analysis
30
Industry Risk Reward Indices
35
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
35
Lithuania Risk/Reward Index
41
Rewards
41
Risks
41
Market Overview
43
Industry Trends And Developments
45
Epidemiology
45
Table: Leading Causes of Death, 2005-2013
46
Table: Cancer Incidence Rates, 2012-2035
48
Communicable Diseases
49
Table: Incidence of HIV & AIDS, 2002-2010
50
Healthcare System
50
Healthcare Provision
50
Table: Healthcare Resources (Lithuania 2009-2014)
51
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Lithuania 2009-2014)
51
Table: Healthcare Activity (Lithuania 2009-2014)
52
Healthcare Funding
52
Healthcare Insurance
53
Research & Development
53
Clinical Trials
55
Regulatory Development
56
Regional Harmonisation
57
Pharmaceutical Advertising
58
Intellectual Property Regime
59
Pricing Regime
60
Table: Wholesale Mark-Ups For Reimbursed And Non-Reimbursed Medicines
61
Reimbursement Regime
62
Table: Retail Mark-Ups For Reimbursed And Non-Reimbursed Medicines
63
Competitive Landscape
64
Pharmaceutical Industry
64
Table: Members of the Association of Manufacturers of Drugs (VGA), 2013
64
Research-Based Industry
65
Table: Members of the Innovative Pharmaceutical Industry Association (IFPA)
66
Generic Drugmakers
66
Recent Company Developments
67
Pharmaceutical Wholesale
67
Pharmaceutical Retail
68
Table: Pharmacies, 2000-2012
69
Company Profile
71
Valentis
71
Sanitas (Valeant)
73
Sicor Biotech (Teva)
77
GlaxoSmithKline
80
Pfizer
83
Novartis
85
Merck & Co
87
Sanofi
89
Demographic Forecast
91
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Lithuania 1990-2025)
92
Table: Key Population Ratios (Lithuania 1990-2025)
92
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Lithuania 1990-2025)
93
Table: Population By Age Group (Lithuania 1990-2025)
93
Table: Population By Age Group % (Lithuania 1990-2025)
94
Glossary
96
Methodology
98
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
98
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
98
Notes On Methodology
99
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
100
Index Overview
101
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
101
Indicator Weightings
102

The Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Lithuania pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Lithuania, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Lithuanian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Lithuanian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Lithuania.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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