BMI View: Non-communicable conditions such as cardiovascular disease and cancer will continue to be the primary contributors to Lithuania's disease burden. Although these disease dynamics will make the country attractive to innovative drugmakers, the small size of the country's population will limit the commercial opportunity. The absolute disease burden is expected to decline over the next 15 years as the standard of healthcare improves and the population contracts.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR601mn (USD806mn) in 2014 to EUR618mn(USD680mn) in 2015; +2.7% in local currency terms and -15.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from Q215.
Healthcare: EUR2.14bn (USD2.87bn) in 2014 to EUR2.15bn (USD2.36bn) in 2015; +0.3% in local currency terms and -17.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from Q215.
Lithuania has an RRI score of 48.0 out of 100, making it the 13th most attractive pharmaceutical market in Central and Eastern Europe. Lithuania scores below the regional average score of 49.3 in Q415. Lithuania scores (13.6 below the regional average for Industry Rewards (16.7), with the country's limited size holding back its score. Lithuania's overall Reward score of 26.6 is below the regional average (29.6), highlighting the limited growth outlook for pharmaceuticals and the small overall size of the Lithuanian market.
Key Trends and Developments
In August 2015, Lithuania noted that the EU cross-border healthcare directive has not delivered as many paying patients as it expected to. The country had hoped that by offering patients from western countries shorter waiting times and reductions in treatment costs, there would be a significant increase in medical tourists.
In May 2015, the European Commission recommended that Lithuania address the issue of a shrinking working-age population by improving the labour-market relevance of education, increasing attainment in basic skills, and improving the...
The Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Lithuania pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Lithuania, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Lithuanian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Lithuanian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Lithuania.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.