Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
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BMI View: Lithuania's pharmaceutical and healthcare market represents a modest prospect for investment from multinational firms. A rising burden of chronic disease will translate in to an increase in demand and sales; however, fiscal policies and the small size of the market will limit revenue earning opportunities.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: EUR616mn (USD670mn) in 2015 to EUR633mn (USD697mn) in 2016; +2.9% in local currency terms and 4.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q 3 16 .

  • Healthcare: EUR2.45bn (USD2.67bn) in 2015 to EUR2.56bn (USD2.82bn) in 2016; 4.4% in local currency terms and 5.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q 3 16 .

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Lithuania 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
*figures rounded to two decimal places. f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, State Medicines Control Agency (VVKT), AESGP, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 0.730 0.670 0.700 0.760 0.830 0.870 0.920
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 1.51 1.62 1.64 1.62 1.59 1.57 1.55
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 25.5 25.1 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.6 24.6
Health spending, USDbn 2.860 2.670 2.820 3.090 3.390 3.560 3.730

Risk/Reward Index

In BMI's Q416 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) Lithuania is ranked 11th out of the 20 markets in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) matrix with an unchanged score of 52.7 from with the previous quarter. Lithuania scores slightly above the regional average score of 52.4 in Q416. The country's overall Rewards score of 31.3 is below the regional average (33.2) despite a higher-than-average Country Rewards score; its Industry Rewards score is low because the small population size will continue to be an absolute limit in terms of the pharmaceutical market size and in determining longer-term opportunities.

Latest Updates

  • In July 2016, the members of the Lithuanian Innovative Pharmaceutical Industry Association (IFPA) have committed to disclosing the level of their investment in health care - including to physicians - to assuage fears of cooperation.

  • The mortality rate in the Baltics remains considerably higher than the rest of the European Union, according to a health care survey published in July 2016.

In July 2016, the Lithuanian Ministry of Health is planning to ban online alcohol adverts in an attempt to reduce alcohol abuse problems.

BMI Economic View

As with several other states in Central and Eastern Europe, the Lithuanian economy's small and open nature leaves it exposed to the potential fallout of the UK's break with the European Union, as investor sentiment across the eurozone deteriorates. While we have made downward revisions to our outlook for economic growth over the next two years, we believe macroeconomic fundamentals are well-placed to prevent a significant slowdown.

BMI Political View

While the United Kingdom's decision to leave the European Union has been a boon for eurosceptics across the region, continued tensions with Russia will mean Lithuania's own membership will be viewed positively by the population. Relations with Russia will dominate the discourse in the approach to parliamentary elections scheduled for October 2016.

BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Lithuania 2014-2020)
Industry Forecast
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2012-2020)
Healthcare Market Forecast
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2012-2020)
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2012-2020)
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2012-2020)
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2012-2020)
Patented Drug Market Forecast
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2012-2020)
Generic Drug Market Forecast
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2012-2020)
OTC Drug Market Forecast
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2012-2020)
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2014-2020)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Lithuania 2014-2020)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index - Q4 2016
Lithuania Risk/Reward Index
Regulatory Review
Intellectual Property Issues
Pricing Regime
Table: Wholesale Mark-Ups For Reimbursed And Non-Reimbursed Medicines
Reimbursement Regime
Table: Retail Mark-Ups For Reimbursed And Non-Reimbursed Medicines
Market Overview
Healthcare Sector
Table: Healthcare Resources (Lithuania 2010-2015)
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Lithuania 2010-2015)
Table: Healthcare Activity (Lithuania 2010-2015)
Research & Development
Clinical Trials
Competitive Landscape
Research-Based Industry
Table: Members of the Innovative Pharmaceutical Industry Association (IFPA)
Table: Multinational Market Activity
Generic Drugmakers
Pharmaceutical Distribution
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
Company Profile
Sanitas (Valeant)
Sicor Biotech (Teva)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Lithuania 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Lithuania 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Lithuania 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Lithuania 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Lithuania 1990-2025)
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
Notes On Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Index Overview
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Indicator Weightings

The Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Lithuania pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Lithuania, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Lithuanian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Lithuanian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Lithuania.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.


BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.