BMI View: Lithuania's mobile market recorded negative growth in 2013 and the for first nine months of 2014, with incumbent Omnitel finally ceding its lead position to Tele2 . The mobile market is satu rated and as operators move customers to more valuable postpaid plans, so large numbers of inactiv e prepaid accounts are being eli minated. In Omnitel's case, this has yielded stronger ARPU fig ures and uncovered underlying posit ive ARP U growth that had previously n o t been visible. Consumers have become used to very low monthly mobil e bills, however . And, despite an uptick in mobile data consumption, we expect revenues to contin ue decl ining over the next five years. The pressure will be on operators t o develop advanced new prod ucts and services. Not all players will survive the medium term and news that the Bité gro up is being prepared for sale comes as no surprise .
Blended mobile ARPU reached LTL17 at the end of 2014 and we do not project much in the way of recovery until 2018. Nevertheless, the downward trend has stabilised after years of MTR cuts and price competition.
The increased emphasis on postpaid subscriptions will begin to benefit 3G and 4G mobile service revenues. BMI forecasts 3G/4G subscriptions to grow from 1.827mn in 2014 to 2.158mn by 2018 as new handsets and connected devices increasingly come 3G/4G-enabled.
At the same time, demand for traditional fixed broadband connections (principally fibre and fixed wireless connections) will continue trending upwards, helping total broadband subscriptions to rise from 1.233mn in 2014 to 1.472mn by 2018.
Key Trends & Developments
Long overdue consolidation appears to be on the cards in Lithuania's staid electronic communications services market. Minor mobile network operator Bité could be sold to a larger player early in 2015 as majority shareholder Mid Europa Partners has indicated a desire to sell the Bité group, which includes a towers company and an MVNO...
The Lithuania Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Lithuania's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Lithuania Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Lithuania.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Lithuania to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Lithuanian telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Lithuania's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Lithuania.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
- Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.