Structural reforms and a competitive manufacturing export sector will continue to drive robust real GDP growth in Macedonia over the coming decade, which will be further supported by a strengthening household sector.
However, heightened political uncertainty and shifting demographic trends will restrict potential GDP growth and result in a deceleration by the end of our forecast period.
Macedonia's political stability will continue to be tested even after a last-minute deal was struck to postpone from April 24 to June 5 an upcoming parliamentary election, which the opposition had threatened to boycott.
Major Forecast Changes
We have raised our real GDP growth forecast from 2.8% to 3.0% for 2016, but are now forecasting a deceleration to 2.6% in 2017, having previously projected 3.1% real GDP growth.
Our current account deficit forecasts for Macedonia have been revised from 0.1% of GDP to 2.0% of GDP for 2016 and 2017 on account of shifting external dynamics since Q415.
A deeply divided legislature and elevated ethnic tensions threaten to delay further structural reforms over the coming years.
Europe's migrant crisis and Macedonia's decision to shut its border with Greece could complicate future EU accession discussions, and move Skopje further away from its commitment to institutional convergence with the bloc.
|Real GDP growth, % y-o-y||3.8||3.3||3.0||2.6|
|Nominal GDP, USDbn||11.3||9.0||9.0||9.7|
|Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop||-0.6||-0.3||0.8||1.9|
|Exchange rate MKD/USD, eop||50.65||56.49||55.91||53.48|
|Budget balance, % of GDP||-4.2||-3.9||-3.6||-3.3|
|Current account balance, % of GDP||-0.8||-1.6||-2.0||-2.0|
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