Macedonia Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Macedonia Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Macedonia's December 2016 election will pave the way for a normalisation of politics after years of deadlock, characterised by corruption allegations and major protests. However, political risk will remain elevated, as the scope for renewed stand-offs between the major parties and a stalled EU accession process could see social tensions periodically flare up.

  • Economic growth in Macedonia will slow on account of weaker euro area demand. However, a recovery in fixed investment and strong private consumption growth will lead to renewed growth acceleration from 2018 onwards.

  • Beyond the medium term, Macedonia's manufacturing sector will need to move up the value chain to ensure continued robust growth for the economy.

Major Forecast Changes

  • We have lowered our real GDP growth forecast from 3.6% to 3.2% for 2016 amid a disappointing Q116 GDP performance and recent downward revisions to German real GDP growth in light of Brexit.

Key Risks

  • A deeply divided legislature and elevated ethnic tensions threaten to delay further structural reforms over the coming years.

  • Germany's economic rebalancing process could see demand for Macedonia's manufactured goods exports decline over the coming years, leading to lower goods export growth and fixed investment.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Macedonia 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014 2015 2016f 2017f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 3.5 3.7 3.2 2.9
Nominal GDP, USDbn 11.3 10.1 9.0 9.2
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop -0.6 -0.3 0.8 1.9
Exchange rate MKD/USD, eop 50.70 56.50 58.60 59.10
Budget balance, % of GDP -4.2 -3.5 -3.6 -3.3
Current account balance, % of GDP -0.8 -1.4 -2.9 -2.9
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Outlook For Continued Robust Economic Growth Favourable
8
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
10
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
11
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
11
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
11
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
11
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
12
Fiscal Policy On A Sustainable Trajectory
12
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
12
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
13
External Trade And Investment Outlook
13
Currency Peg A Major Source Of External Stability
13
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
14
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS
14
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS
14
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
15
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
17
The Macedonian Economy To 2025
17
Robust Growth Will Moderate Over The Next 10 Years
17
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
17
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
21
SWOT Analysis
21
BMI Political Risk Index
21
Domestic Politics
22
Election Postponement: A Way Out Of The Political Crisis-
22
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
22
TABLE: A CHRONOLOGY OF MACEDONIA'S POLITICAL CRISIS, DECEMBER 2012 TO MAY 2015
23
TABLE: A CHRONOLOGY OF MACEDONIA'S POLITICAL CRISIS, JUNE 2015 TO MAY 2016
24
Long-Term Political Outlook
25
Unresolved Name Dispute And Ethnic Tensions Pose Long-Term Risks
25
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
29
SWOT Analysis
29
Operational Risk Index
29
Operational Risk
30
TABLE: SOUTH EAST EUROPE - LABOUR MARKET RISK
30
TABLE: SOUTH EAST EUROPE - LOGISTICS RISK
34
TABLE: SOUTH EAST EUROPE - CRIME AND SECURITY RISK
38
TABLE: SOUTH EAST EUROPE - TRADE AND INVESTMENT RISK
39
TABLE: MAIN IMPORT PRODUCTS, 2014
42
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
43
Global Macro Outlook
43
Summer Of Risk
43
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
43
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
44
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
45
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
47

Assess your risk exposure in Macedonia with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Macedonia with confidence.

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