Macedonia Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
×

Sign up to download the Macedonia Country Risk Report

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

You will shortly receive your free executive summary by email.

Macedonia Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Structural reforms and a competitive manufacturing export sector will continue to drive robust real GDP growth in Macedonia over the coming decade, which will be further supported by a strengthening household sector.

  • However, heightened political uncertainty and shifting demographic trends will restrict potential GDP growth and result in a deceleration by the end of our forecast period.

  • Macedonia's political stability will continue to be tested even after a last-minute deal was struck to postpone from April 24 to June 5 an upcoming parliamentary election, which the opposition had threatened to boycott.

Major Forecast Changes

  • We have raised our real GDP growth forecast from 2.8% to 3.0% for 2016, but are now forecasting a deceleration to 2.6% in 2017, having previously projected 3.1% real GDP growth.

  • Our current account deficit forecasts for Macedonia have been revised from 0.1% of GDP to 2.0% of GDP for 2016 and 2017 on account of shifting external dynamics since Q415.

Key Risks

  • A deeply divided legislature and elevated ethnic tensions threaten to delay further structural reforms over the coming years.

  • Europe's migrant crisis and Macedonia's decision to shut its border with Greece could complicate future EU accession discussions, and move Skopje further away from its commitment to institutional convergence with the bloc.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Macedonia 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 3.8 3.3 3.0 2.6
Nominal GDP, USDbn 11.3 9.0 9.0 9.7
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop -0.6 -0.3 0.8 1.9
Exchange rate MKD/USD, eop 50.65 56.49 55.91 53.48
Budget balance, % of GDP -4.2 -3.9 -3.6 -3.3
Current account balance, % of GDP -0.8 -1.6 -2.0 -2.0
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Slower Growth Amid Softer Eurozone Manufacturing Activity
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
10
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
10
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Fiscal And Public Debt Outlook
11
Political Uncertainty Will Slow Fiscal Consolidation
11
TABLE: CENTRAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET FORECASTS
11
Structural Fiscal Position
13
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES (2015)
13
External Trade & Investment
14
Changing External Dynamics Will Reshape Current Account
14
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
15
Outlook On External Position
16
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
16
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2015
17
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2015
17
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
19
The Macedonian Economy To 2025
19
Robust Growth Will Moderate Over The Next 10 Years
19
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
19
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
23
SWOT Analysis
23
BMI Political Risk Index
23
Domestic Politics
24
Political Instability Will Continue To Loom Large
24
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
24
TABLE: A CHRONOLOGY OF MACEDONIA'S POLITICAL CRISIS
25
Long-Term Political Outlook
27
Unresolved Name Dispute And Ethnic Tensions Pose Long-Term Risks
27
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
31
SWOT Analysis
31
Operational Risk Index
31
Operational Risk
32
TABLE: SOUTH EAST EUROPE - LABOUR MARKET RISK
32
TABLE: SOUTH EAST EUROPE - LOGISTICS RISK
36
TABLE: SOUTH EAST EUROPE - CRIME AND SECURITY RISK
40
TABLE: SOUTH EAST EUROPE - TRADE AND INVESTMENT RISK
42
TABLE: MAIN IMPORT PRODUCTS, 2014
44
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
47
Global Macro Outlook
47
Tail Risks Mounting Amid Sub-Par Growth
47
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
47
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
48
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, 2015 AND 2016 (%)
48
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
49
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
51

Assess your risk exposure in Macedonia with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Macedonia with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:

  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
  • The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
  • The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription
  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report